Europe - Champions League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
Two teams with no points in their kitty will meet on matchday two of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League campaign as Marseille host Ajax on Tuesday. This match in Marseille between Les Phoceens and de Godenzonen, who have lost on matchday one, comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals.
Marseille lost 2-1 away at Madrid on matchday one, although they were leading until nearly the 30th minute and also had a one-man advantage from the 72nd minute. The hosts have been in impeccable form at home, albeit in the domestic competition, and now face a challenge of replicating it in Europe.
Ajax have a great record playing away from home in the Champions League proper, losing only three (W11, D5, L3) of their last 19 such matches. While that record looks impressive, the Dutch champions are struggling for consistency and momentum in this season. Can they rise above their indifferent recent form and win at least a point here? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Marseille v Ajax Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.55 | 4.2 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.6 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.33 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.4 | 5.75 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Ajax?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Ajax match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/09/2025 between Marseille and Ajax in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.48% for a win of Marseille against Ajax with odds of 1.56 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Ajax is 39.05% with odds of 4.6 at Betfred.
- Our prediction model gives a 9.47% chance ⭐ for a win of Ajax vs Marseille with odds of 6.5 at Betfred.
Marseille - Ajax Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Ajax Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 51.48% | 1.56 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 1.58 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 70.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Marseille | 22.59% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Marseille vs Ajax Form
Marseille and Ajax's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
25
|
3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
|
36
|
0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 |
Marseille and Ajax Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
24 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
24 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
10 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
27 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
14 May 2025 - Eredivisie
20 Apr 2025 - Eredivisie
Marseille vs Ajax Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Nov 2023 - Europa League
21 Sept 2023 - Europa League
Marseille - Ajax: Form Analysis
Marseille won 2-1 away at Strasbourg in Ligue 1 last Friday to make it three wins out of their last four competitive matches (W3, D1). They are second behind PSG in Ligue 1 standings after six matchdays.
Their matchday one result in this competition was a 2-1 defeat away at Real Madrid, where they failed to maintain their lead and a one-man advantage. That said, three consecutive wins in home matches this season give them hope of winning this match.
Marseille are unbeaten in their last eight home European games (W6, D2).
Ajax will hope to break that sequence, coming here after a 2-1 home win over NAC Breda in the Dutch Eredivisie last weekend. That result kept them third in the standings and in proximity of the leaders.
The visitors are still searching for consistency, as they could win only two of their last five competitive matches (W2, D2, L1). The loss in that sequence was a 2-0 home defeat to Inter Milan on matchday one of this competition. Ajax have also struggled to break through on the road, drawing all three away fixtures this season.
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Marseille against Ajax Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
R. Blanco
DefenderP. Lirola
U. Garcia
MidfielderH. Traore
G. Kondogbia
ForwardN. Maupay
B. Van den Boomen
J. McConnell
ForwardK. Dolberg
W. Weghorst
Marseille & Ajax Squad Analysis
Geoffrey Kondogbia will continue to miss for Marseille, who will also miss Ruben Blanco and Hamed Traore. There are a few more injuries in the squad, but Marseille have no major concerns beyond those.
Marseille lined up in 4-2-3-1 formations, their usual staple this season, including against Real Madrid on matchday one. That could see European veteran Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang starting as the lone striker with the exciting Mason Greenwood and Timothy Weah on the wings.
Aubameyang has five goals for Marseille in two games against Ajax.
That was back in the 2023-24 Europa League, but Ajax will be wary of his presence. The visitors lined up without Branco van den Boomen at the weekend and are likely to do so again here. Kasper Dolberg also misses out for Ajax with an abdominal strain.
Ajax usually favored the 4-3-3 system, although there were a few occasions of 4-2-3-1 popping up, like at the weekend. Kenneth Taylor could be key to their chances, as the Ajax midfielder scored two and set up one goal in their last two matches.
Most goals and assists
Marseille
Ajax
M. Greenwood
(9 Goals)
W. Weghorst
(7 Goals)
P. Aubameyang
(5 Assists)
M. Godts
(4 Assists)
Marseille - Ajax Key Points
- Marseille scored in five of their last six matches in all competitions.
- Marseille kept only one clean sheet in their last 22 Champions League fixtures.
- In four of Ajax’s last five competitive matches, both teams scored goals.
- In each of their three away matches this season, Ajax saw both teams scoring goals.
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Our Marseille vs Ajax Prediction
Marseille and Ajax are two of the 14 teams to have lost on matchday one, putting pressure on them to revive their campaign. The hosts were beaten in Madrid, which remained their only loss across their last four games. To go with that, the French side have won all three home games this season, giving them an edge. Ajax have drawn all three of their away matches this season and could be a stubborn opponent to face on their day.
Both teams are likely to be presented scoring opportunities, and our Marseille vs Ajax prediction is both teams to score.
Marseille vs Ajax - Other Interesting Predictions
Marseille win and BTTS
Marseille scored ten goals in their three home matches this season, winning each time. Ajax drew all three of their away games this campaign, although scoring each time. The hosts could end up edging the contest with both teams finding the net.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Ajax
| Marseille vs Ajax | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 1.67 | 1.55 | -7.2% |
| Draw | 4 | 4.2 | +5.0% |
| Ajax wins | 4.75 | 5.75 | +21.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 7.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.9% and is now 64.5% (4.6%)
Win free tickets to Marseille vs. Ajax at Bet365!
With the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season starts, bet365 offers free tickets for their users, including Marseille vs. Ajax match!
To be in with a chance of winning tickets to any of the UEFA Champions League matchdays throughout the 2025/26 season, all fans must do is enter into the free-to-enter weekly ticket draws on the bet365 website or app*.
*Entrants must be 18+ and UK residents, with a bet365 account. All entrants will be subjectto vetting to ensure they are compliant with responsible gambling guidelines.
Marseille vs Ajax match : Frequently asked questions
The Marseille vs Ajax UEFA Champions League match is set to be shown on TNT Sports 1 in the UK. In France, the match is set on Canal+ and M6, while Ziggo Sport is the official broadcaster in the Netherlands.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Champions League Livescore page!
Marseille haven't lost any of their five recent matches against Ajax in UEFA competitions (W3, D2) since losing the first three games to the Dutch powerhouses. The last time these sides faced each other was in the 2023/24 Europa League group stage, when the fixture in Amsterdam ended in a 3-3 draw, followed by a 4-3 win at home for Marseille.
Let's start with Marseille. They will next face – in that order – Sporting CP (away), Atalanta (home), Newcastle United (home), Union Saint-Gilloise (away), Liverpool (home), and Club Brugge (away).
Ajax will be away at Chelsea in the next round, followed by Galatasaray (home), Benfica (home), Qarabag (away), Villarreal (away), and Olympiacos (home).
This is the second season for the new format, as 36 teams start the League phase with four matches at home and four on the road. The top eight ranked teams from this phase will receive a bye to the round of 16. The teams ranked from 9th to 24th will play in the knockout phase play-offs. Among these, the teams from 9th to 16th are seeded, while the others are unseeded. Teams that are ranked from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from all eliminations, as no drop-down to the Europa League is on offer for the teams.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
