Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
Can Lorenzo Musetti make it into round four of the Australian Open for the first time? To do so, the fifth seed must get past unseeded Tomas Machac who recently won the Adelaide International. Read our match prediction below.
Musetti reached round three of this outdoor hard court Grand Slam last year but lost to Ben Shelton in four sets. This year has seen him defeat Raphael Collignon who was trailing two sets to one when retiring in set four.
That was followed by an all-Italian clash with Lorenzo Sonego which he won in straight sets. Musetti has won five of his six matches this year and was the losing finalist in Hong Kong. He's up to a career-high third in the live rankings.
Tomas Machac won his only previous match against Musetti, winning in the Marseille indoor hard court tournament in 2023. The Czech is in round three of the Australian Open for the third successive year but has never progressed further.
He's won seven of his eight matches this year. After winning the Adelaide title, Machac has beaten Grigor Dimitrov and 31st seed Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only Tsitsipas took a set off him and their match contained two tie-breaks.
We tip over 0.5 tie-breaks in this match.
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Lorenzo Musetti v Tomas Machac Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.49 | 2.62 |
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1.49 | 2.62 |
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1.5 | 2.63 |
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1.48 | 2.48 |
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1.48 | 2.5 |
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Who will win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac match is: more than 0.5 tie-breaks.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac game on 23/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Lorenzo Musetti has a 44.8% chance to win against Tomas Machac according to Tonybet ⭐ with the odds of 1.51.
- Tomas Machac has a 55.2% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Musetti ⭐ with odds of 2.72 at Shangrila.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Musetti has a 44.8 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | 44.8 % |
| Tomas Machac | 55.2 % |
Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Tomas Machac Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
11 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
10 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
7 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
13 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
22 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
16 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
15 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
14 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
13 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
7 Feb 2024 - ATP Marseille
Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Machac Key Points
- Niine of Musetti's last 11 Australian Open matches have included a tie-break.
- Four of Musetti's six matches this year have seen a tie-break played.
- Machac has played 11 tie-breaks in his last ten Australian Open matches.
- Machac played two tie-breaks in his second round match against Tsitsipas. He's done that three times in the Australian Open and played three in one past match.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Prediction
This looks like being one of the best matches in round three of the Australian Open. Tomas Machac may be unseeded but he's up to 27th in the live rankings with one title won already. He will be a tough opponent for Musetti and a close match is anticipated.
Both players tend to play a lot of tie-breaks. Machac has even played three in one five-setter in the past. A side bet on over 1.5 tie-breaks could even win here. Our main Lorenzo Musetti v Tomas Machac prediction is more than 0.5 tie-breaks.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
