Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Leipzig face a test of their home credentials when they host Mainz in a Bundesliga matchday 20 fixture on Saturday. This match in Leipzig between the fourth-placed ‘Red Bulls’ and the 16th-placed ‘05ers’ comes with our prediction of a home win and BTTS.
Ahead of this round, Leipzig’s 36 points from 19 matches (W11, D3, L5) keep them three points behind third but only ahead on difference from fifth. Mainz’s 15 points (W3, D6, L10) see them start this round in the relegation play-off spot and three points behind safety.
A 1-1 away draw in the midweek fixture meant Leipzig have taken seven points from their last four league matches (W2, D1, L1). However, three defeats from their last six Bundesliga fixtures throw a cloud of uncertainty over their form.
Playing at home adds weight to Leipzig, as they have won eight of their ten competitive matches at this venue this season (L2).
Mainz won 3-1 at home against Wolfsburg last weekend, which meant they have lost only one of their last eight competitive games (W3, D4). In the league, they have nine points across the last six fixtures (W2, D3, L1), helping raise hopes of beating the drop.
Concerns still remain over their away form, as Mainz were beaten in five of their last seven away Bundesliga games (D2).
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Leipzig v 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.57 | 4.7 | 5.6 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.54 | 4.4 | 5.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leipzig and 1 Fsv Mainz 05?
Our prediction for the Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 match is: Leipzig wins and BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/01/2026 between Leipzig and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 52.87% for a win of Leipzig against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 with odds of 1.62 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is 24.68% with odds of 4.7 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.45% chance ⭐ for a win of 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Leipzig with odds of 5.69 at 888Starz.
Leipzig - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leipzig 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 52.87% | 1.62 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.63% | 1.6 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 54.58% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Leipzig | 22.69% | 4.75 at Bet365 |
Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Form
Leipzig and 1 Fsv Mainz 05's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
65 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 |
|
10
|
40 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 |
Leipzig and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
5 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
19 Oct 2024 - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2024 - Bundesliga
4 Nov 2023 - Bundesliga
1 Apr 2023 - Bundesliga
Leipzig against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Substitutes
M. Vandevoordt
DefenderM. Finkgrafe
B. Henrichs
L. Klostermann
K. Nedeljkovic
MidfielderE. Banzuzi
A. Maksimovic
ForwardT. Gomis
J. Bakayoko
L. Riess
DefenderP. Mwene
L. Maloney
D. Gleiber
P. Nebel
W. Boving
ForwardA. Nordin
S. Katompa Mvumpa
N. Weiper
Missing players
C. Lukeba
MidfielderC. Baumgartner
A. Ouedraogo
V. Gebel
ForwardS. Suleiman
R. Zentner
DefenderA. Hanche Olsen
A. Caci
MidfielderD. Kohr
S. Kawasaki
ForwardS. Becker
K. Bos
Most goals and assists
Leipzig
1 Fsv Mainz 05
C. Baumgartner
(13 Goals)
N. Amiri
(12 Goals)
D. Raum
(7 Assists)
, 
Y. Diomande
(7 Assists)
B. Hollerbach
(3 Assists)
,
D. da Costa
(3 Assists)
, 
S. Becker
(3 Assists)
Leipzig - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Key Points
- Leipzig won eight of their last ten home matches in all competitions.
- Leipzig won two of their last three league games against Mainz including the reverse fixture.
- Mainz lost five of their last seven away Bundesliga matches.
- Nine of Mainz’s last 13 Bundesliga matches saw both teams score goals.
- Mainz have seen both teams score goals in their last four competitive away matches.
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Our Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction
Leipzig needs a lift in their form, as a run of three defeats from their last six league matches has left them vulnerable in the top-four race. They can be overtaken by Stuttgart if things don’t go their way, which should be a concern. Thankfully for the hosts, their performance at this venue has been near-impeccable, with only Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen defeating them in ten competitive matches this season.
Mainz could still push the hosts and at least find a goal, so our Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 prediction is Leipzig wins and BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leipzig 1 Fsv Mainz 05
| Leipzig vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 1.59 | 1.62 | +1.9% |
| Draw | 4.78 | 4.7 | -1.7% |
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 5.69 | 5.69 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leipzig is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 62.9% and is now 61.7% (-1.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
