Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction & Betting Tips - Brasileirão Serie A
Brazil - Brasileirão Serie A
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Football Predictions
Gremio will play host to Flamengo on Matchday 15 in the Brasileiro this Sunday evening. Immortal Tricolor are in 14th place, while Mengao are second, but the hosts are unbeaten at home this season, and our prediction is that they will take something from this match.
Gremio have experienced a mixed start to the season, but after defeating Deportivo Riestra 3-0 in the Copa Sudamericana in midweek, they are now unbeaten in five matches across all competitions.
Notably, Immortal Tricolor’s biggest improvement of late has been their defence. They played to a goalless draw against Athletico PR on MD14 and have now kept clean sheets in eight of their last 10 games in all competitions.
The hosts are one of only three teams yet to lose a home league game this season. They have conceded just five goals at this venue, which is the third-best defensive home record in the division.
Meanwhile, Flamengo were left disappointed after squandering a 2-0 lead in the final 10 minutes and being forced to settle for a 2-2 draw at home to Vasco da Gama last week.
Still, that result extended their unbeaten run to nine matches across all competitions (W7 D2) and was the first time they dropped points in the top flight since early April.
The visitors have the second-best away record in the league this season (W4 D1 L2), but have only won one of their last four league visits to Arena do Gremio.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Gremio v Flamengo Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 | 3.45 | 1.97 |
|
|
4 | 3.46 | 1.94 |
|
|
4 | 3.46 | 1.94 |
|
|
4 | 3.4 | 1.86 |
|
|
3.9 | 3.35 | 1.92 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Gremio and Flamengo?
Our prediction for the Gremio vs Flamengo match is: Gremio or draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/05/2026 between Gremio and Flamengo in Brasileirão Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.39% for a win of Gremio against Flamengo with odds of 4.1 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Gremio vs Flamengo is 32.54% with odds of 3.5 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.07% chance ⭐ for a win of Flamengo vs Gremio with odds of 1.99 at Tonybet.
Gremio - Flamengo Prediction and Best Odds:
| Gremio Flamengo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gremio wins | 35.39% | 4.1 at LSbet |
| Under 2.5 | 64.29% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 60.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Gremio | 15.15% | 9.25 at LSbet |
Gremio vs Flamengo Form
Gremio and Flamengo's standings in the Brasileirão Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
34 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | +15 |
|
16
|
21 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -3 |
Gremio and Flamengo Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 May 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
2 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
29 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
26 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
18 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
14 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
5 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Mar 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Mar 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 May 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
2 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
29 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
18 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
11 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
8 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
29 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
26 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
22 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
19 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
22 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
19 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
5 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Mar 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
26 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
8 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
2 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
22 Mar 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
Gremio vs Flamengo Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
31 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
22 Sept 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
13 Jun 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
25 Oct 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Aug 2023 - Copa do Brasil
Gremio against Flamengo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
T. Beltrame
DefenderW. Leonardo
Caio Paulista
W. Kannemann
M. Rocha
MidfielderWillian
A. Henrique
Dodi
Thiaguinho
J. Enamorado
Tete
M. Braithwaite
Andrew
D. Alves
DefenderEmerson
Vitao
J. Goes
Danilo
MidfielderS. Niguez
Luiz Felipe
N. de la Cruz
B. Pinto
L. Araujo
Everton
Missing players
J. Pedro
Marlon
MidfielderA. Melo
M. Villasanti
J. Nardoni
Ronald
G. de Arrascaeta
E. Pulgar
L. Paqueta
Most goals and assists
Gremio
Flamengo
C. Vinicius
(9 Goals)
Pedro
(10 Goals)
F. Amuzu
(3 Assists)
S. Lino
(6 Assists)
Gremio - Flamengo Key Points
- Gremio have only lost one of their last nine matches in all competitions.
- Gremio are unbeaten at home in the Brasileiro this season,
- Gremio have kept eight clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Gremio have only lost one of their last four home league games against this opponent.
- Flamengo have only kept one clean sheet in their last four away league games.
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Our Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction
Flamengo have made an impressive start to the season and are understandably installed as favourites in this match, but this has not been the happiest hunting ground for them, having only won one of their last four league games at Arena do Gremio.
Gremio have had their struggles in front of goal this season, scoring only 15 times in 14 league games, but their defence of late has been impeccable of late, and we feel they will be able to take at least a point from this match. Our Gremio vs Flamengo prediction is Gremio or draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Gremio Flamengo
| Gremio vs Flamengo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio wins | 3.7 | 4.1 | +10.8% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.5 | +2.9% |
| Flamengo wins | 2.05 | 1.99 | -2.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Gremio is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 10.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 27.0% and is now 24.4% (-2.6%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
