UFC - UFC Fight Night
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
On the surface, Randy Brown seems to have the physical edge over Gabriel Bonfim, as he stands two inches taller with a huge six-inch reach advantage. That length has always been his biggest weapon in keeping guys off of him, but this time, that might not even matter in their UFC Fight Night clash. Our best match prediction has Bonfim winning, and the betting odds agree, which makes sense considering the sheer force of his pressure wrestling and elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Bonfim is not just some grappling specialist. Marretinha averages a massive 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a successful 55% accuracy. When he wants the fight on the ground, he gets it there. And once he’s there, he has an insane submission average of 1.6 per 15 minutes, nearly three times higher than Brown’s.
We saw this submission threat on full display in his most recent fight, which was a crazy split decision win against Stephen Thompson back in July. In that game, Bonfim effectively used takedowns and top control to nullify one of the best strikers in the division for long stretches.
Don’t get us wrong, Brown is a capable striker, and he’s coming off a great KO win against Nicolas Dalby in April. However, Rudeboy has been submitted twice in his career and Bonfim’s ground game is just levels above anyone he has faced recently. For us, it's a matter of when, not if, Bonfim can get this one to the mat and lock something up.
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Gabriel Bonfim - Randy Brown Key Points
- Gabriel Bonfim has an excellent takedown average of 4.03 per 15 minutes, showing a constant intent to grapple.
- Bonfim's submission average is 1.6 per 15 minutes, which is an elite-level threat on the ground.
- Brown has suffered two losses by submission in his professional career, showing a clear vulnerability.
- Bonfim's 88.9% finish rate, with 12 of his 18 wins coming by submission, shows he's not looking to win on points.
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Our Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown Prediction
Randy Brown is definitely going to make any player he faces in the ring sweat, and Bonfim is no exception, especially with the six-inch reach advantage Rudeboy holds. Still, Bonfim has proved he can close the distance and control a fight against a striking legend, and he is a total venomous threat once this fight hits the floor.
Another thing is the grappling disparity is just simply too much. Bonfim may eat a few shots, but expect him to push through, secure the takedown, and eventually find the neck or the limb. And that fighting style has seen him win 18 of his 19 bouts. Hence, our Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown match prediction is Gabriel Bonfim to win.
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