Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
Three-time Australian Open quarter-finalist Andrey Rublev takes on Francisco Cerundolo in round three. Rublev is the 13th seed for this outdoor hard court Grand Slam, five places above his opponent. Time for our match prediction.
Andrey Rublev made it to the last eight here in 2021,2023 and 2024 but lost in round one last year. It's gone better for him in 2026 with a straight sets win over Matteo Arnaldi and then beating Jaime Faria in four sets.
Four of his five matches have been won this year with a semi-final reached in Hong Kong.
Francisco Cerundolo will want to continue his impressive record against Rublev. He leads Rublev 3-1 in previous meetings. Three were played on clay but Cerundolo won on an indoor hard court in 2024, both sets going to a tie-break, making it five in their last three matches.
Cerundolo is yet to drop a set in this tournament with straight sets victories over Zhizhen Zhang and Damir Dzumhur. His only other tournament this year saw him lose to Jaume Munar in Adelaide in his opening match of 2026.
After two wins this week, Cerundolo is 19th in the live rankings, five places below Rublev.
We tip more than 0.5 tie-breaks to be played.
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Francisco Cerundolo v Andrey Rublev Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.1 | 1.73 |
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2.09 | 1.74 |
|
|
2.1 | 1.73 |
|
|
2.06 | 1.68 |
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|
2.06 | 1.69 |
|
Who will win the Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev match is: more than 0.5 tie-breaks.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev game on 23/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Francisco Cerundolo has a 47.65% chance to win against Andrey Rublev according to Tonybet ⭐ with the odds of 2.17.
- Andrey Rublev has a 52.35% probability of winning facing Francisco Cerundolo ⭐ with odds of 1.75 at 888Starz.
Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Francisco Cerundolo has a 47.65 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Francisco Cerundolo | 47.65 % |
| Andrey Rublev | 52.35 % |
Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Form
Francisco Cerundolo and Andrey Rublev Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
17 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
13 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
20 Nov 2025 - Davis Cup
30 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
29 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
10 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
7 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
30 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
29 Oct 2024 - Rolex Paris Masters
26 Jul 2024 - ATP Umag Open
22 Jul 2023 - ATP Bastad Open
Francisco Cerundolo - Andrey Rublev Key Points
- Five tie-breaks have been played in the last three matches between these two players.
- Two of the last three saw a couple of tie-breaks played.
- Six of Rublev's last ten matches in this Grand Slam have seen at least one tie-break played.
- Of Cerundolo's last six completed matches in this Grand Slam (retirements excluded), five have seen a tie-break.
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Our Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
A close match looks likely between these two seeded players. Andrey Rublev has a good record in this Grand Slam and has reached three quarter-finals. He's reached one semi-final this year and only lost one set so far in this tournament.
He hasn't got a good record against Cerundolo though. His opponent has won three of their last four matches. The last was decided by Cerundolo winning a couple of tie-breaks. Our Francisco Cerundolo v Andrey Rublev prediction is more than 0.5 tie-breaks.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
