Corinthians vs SAO Paulo Prediction & Betting Tips - Brasileirão Serie A
Brazil - Brasileirão Serie A
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Football Predictions
Sunday brings us the first Classico Majestoso of the Brasileiro season, with 18th-placed Corinthians taking on fourth-placed Sao Paolo at the Neo Quimica Arena. Both Timao and Tricolor Paulista have conceded fewer than a goal per game this term, which sees us favouring a low-scoring outcome as our match prediction.
After finishing just four points above the drop zone last term, Corinthians have had another slow start this season, earning just 15 points from their first 14 games of the campaign.
Timao suffered a 2-1 defeat to Mirassol last week, which ended their three-game unbeaten run in the league. Their major issue this term has been a lack of attacking output, having scored just 10 league goals to date.
However, the hosts have won their last three home games in all competitions and have kept clean sheets in their last four at the Neo Quimica Arena.
Meanwhile, Sao Paulo were left gutted after conceding a 97th-minute goal at home to Bahia, which forced them to settle for a 2-2 draw in their last league match on May 3.
Notably, though, that result followed three consecutive clean sheets across all competitions for Tricolor Paulista and was just the third time they conceded twice in a league game this season.
The visitors have struggled on the road of late, now winless in their last four away games. They are also winless in their last 13 league matches at this venue.
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Corinthians v SAO Paulo Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.1 | 3.15 | 3.8 |
|
|
2.12 | 3.1 | 3.86 |
|
|
2.12 | 3.1 | 3.86 |
|
|
2.01 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
|
|
2.08 | 3 | 3.85 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Corinthians and SAO Paulo?
Our prediction for the Corinthians vs SAO Paulo match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/05/2026 between Corinthians and SAO Paulo in Brasileirão Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.82% for a win of Corinthians against SAO Paulo with odds of 2.13 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Corinthians vs SAO Paulo is 36.39% with odds of 3.25 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.8% chance ⭐ for a win of SAO Paulo vs Corinthians with odds of 4 at Betway.
Corinthians - SAO Paulo Prediction and Best Odds:
| Corinthians SAO Paulo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians wins | 37.82% | 2.13 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 76.83% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 65% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Corinthians | 18.83% | 5.25 at LSbet |
Corinthians vs SAO Paulo Form
Corinthians and SAO Paulo's standings in the Brasileirão Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
27 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | +2 |
|
12
|
25 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | +2 |
Corinthians and SAO Paulo Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 May 2026 - Copa Libertadores
3 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
30 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
26 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
18 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
26 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
15 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
12 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
5 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
22 Mar 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 May 2026 - Copa Libertadores
3 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
18 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
9 Apr 2026 - Copa Libertadores
1 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
3 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
25 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
18 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
25 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Apr 2026 - Copa do Brasil
14 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
4 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Mar 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
28 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
18 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
11 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
7 Apr 2026 - Copa Sudamericana
1 Apr 2026 - Brasileirão Serie A
Corinthians vs SAO Paulo Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Jan 2026 - Paulista Serie A1
20 Nov 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
26 Jan 2025 - Paulista Serie A1
29 Sept 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Jun 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
Corinthians against SAO Paulo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
Kaue
DefenderRamalho
F. Angileri
Iago Machado
P. Milans
MidfielderA. Santana
M. Pereira
Z. Labyad
Kaio Cesar
P. Raul
Dieguinho
G. Negao
C. Coronel
DefenderWendell
L. Osorio
I. Felisberto
MidfielderF. Negrucci
L. Santos
D. Ferreira
P. Ferreira da Silva
Cauly
G. Tapia
A. Silva
L. Marques
Missing players
J. Pedro
MidfielderCharles
Hugo
Kayke
ForwardM. Depay
Vitinho
R. Toloi
L. Ramon
A. Franco
MidfielderMarcos Antonio
P. Maia
ForwardL. Moura
R. Francisco
Most goals and assists
Corinthians
SAO Paulo
Y. Alberto
(3 Goals)
,
Andre
(3 Goals)
Luciano
(6 Goals)
, 
J. Calleri
(6 Goals)
R. Garro
(6 Assists)
Wendell
(3 Assists)
Corinthians - SAO Paulo Key Points
- Four of Corinthians’ last five league games have ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Corinthians have kept clean sheets in their last four home games in all competitions.
- Six of Sao Paulo’s last eight matches have ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Both these sides are averaging less than one goal conceded per league game this season.
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Our Corinthians vs SAO Paulo Prediction
While Corinthians have made an underwhelming start to the season, they have been impressive defensively, conceding just 13 goals to date, which is the joint-third fewest in the top flight to date.
Sao Paulo, on the other hand, have a solid record over the first 14 games of the season, but they have not won a Brasileiro match at the Neo Quimica Arena since 2012. We’re expecting a close contest here, and it would not be a surprise if the first goal ended up being the winner. Our Corinthians vs Sao Paulo prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Corinthians SAO Paulo
| Corinthians vs SAO Paulo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians wins | 2.17 | 2.13 | -1.8% |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.25 | +3.2% |
| SAO Paulo wins | 3.45 | 4 | +15.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Corinthians is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 46.1% and is now 46.9% (0.9%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
