Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
ATP - ATP Australian Open
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz is yet to drop a set in this year's outdoor hard court Australian Open. The top seed takes on 19th seed Tommy Paul for a place in the last eight of the only Grand Slam that Alcaraz has never won. Read our match prediction below.
The winner will face either sixth seed Alex de Minaur or tenth-seeded Alexander Bublik in the last eight.
A win here will take the world number one into the Melbourne quarter-finals for the third successive year.
He is yet to get past the last eight in this tournament. He has won all three matches this week in straight sets Only seven games were lost as the Spaniard beat Corentin Moutet in the last round.
Alcaraz leads Paul 5-2 in previous meetings and has won the last four, They are 2-2 on this surface.
Tommy Paul is attempting to reach the Australian Open quarter-finals for the second year in a row. His best run in this tournament was a semi-final appearance three years ago. That's his best ever performance in a Grand Slam.
Like his opponent, Paul is yet to lose a set in this tournament. After wins over Aleksandar Kovacevic and Thiago Agustin Thiago, he beat 14th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He won the first two sets 6-1 6-1 before his opponent retired in set three.
We tip Alcaraz to win in straight sets.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Carlos Alcaraz v Tommy Paul Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.08 | 7.9 |
|
|
1.08 | 7.9 |
|
|
1.08 | 8 |
|
|
1.09 | 6.2 |
|
|
1.08 | 6.6 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul match is: Carlos Alcaraz wins in straight sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul game on 24/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 72.55% chance to win against Tommy Paul according to Roobet ⭐ with the odds of 1.09.
- Tommy Paul has a 27.45% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 8.6 at Tonybet.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 72.55 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 72.55 % |
| Tommy Paul | 27.45 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
22 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
16 Nov 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
15 Nov 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
13 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
15 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
15 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
13 Jan 2026 - Adelaide International
5 Jan 2026 - Brisbane International
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
3 Jun 2025 - ATP French Open
1 Aug 2024 - Olympic Tournament
9 Jul 2024 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
17 Aug 2023 - ATP Cincinnati Open
11 Aug 2023 - ATP Toronto
28 Mar 2023 - ATP Miami
Carlos Alcaraz - Tommy Paul Key Points
- Alcaraz has won five of his seven previous matches against Paul.
- Paul has failed to win a set in his last two matches against Alcaraz.
- Six of the last seven completed wins (retirements excluded) for Alcaraz in this tournament came in straight sets.
- Alcaraz has won 13 of his last 15 matches.
- Six of the last seven matches Alcaraz has won were in straight sets.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz is playing his first tournament of 2026 but the Spaniard has been impressive so far in Melbourne. Corentin Moutet only won seven games against Alcaraz in the last round. He now bids to reach a 12th quarter-final in 13 Grand Slam tournaments.
Tommy Paul hasn't had too difficult a route to the last 16 but this is by far his toughest assignment of the week. He hasn't beaten a top ten player since last May. Our Carlos Alcaraz v Tommy Paul prediction is Carlos Alcaraz wins in straight sets.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul game!
When you place a bet on the match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Carlos Alcaraz or Tommy Paul, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
