Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Indian Wells
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Indian Wells Predictions
Will Daniil Medvedev become the first player to beat Carlos Alcaraz in 2026? The 11th seed takes on the top-seeded Spaniard in the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. Read our match prediction below.
The winner will face either Jannik Sinner or Alexander Zverev in the final of this outdoor hard court tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz is playing in the last four of this Sunshine Swing Masters event for the fifth successive year. He was the champion at Indian Wells in both 2023 and 2024.
This year, Alcaraz has won all 16 of his matches (all played on this surface) with the Australian Open and Doha titles being won. He's reached this semi-final for the loss of just one set to Arthur Rindernech.
He leads Medvedev 6-2 in previous meetings and 3-1 on outdoor hard courts.
Medvedev has lost his last four matches against Alcaraz. That includes two losses to the Spaniard in the final of this tournament in 2023 and 2024. The Russian failed to win a set in either defeat.
He's also won two outdoor hard court titles this year with 17 out of 19 matches being won. Medvedev has made it to the last four without dropping a set. We tip more than 19.5 games to be played.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.21 | 4.48 |
|
|
1.19 | 4.72 |
|
|
1.17 | 5 |
|
|
1.18 | 4.4 |
|
|
1.18 | 4.4 |
|
Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev match is: more than 19.5 games.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev game on 14/03/2026 of the current ATP Indian Wells season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 70.53% chance to win against Daniil Medvedev according to Melbet ⭐ with the odds of 1.21.
- Daniil Medvedev has a 29.47% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 5.4 at Shangrila.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 70.53 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 70.53 % |
| Daniil Medvedev | 29.47 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
12 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
11 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
9 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
7 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
21 Feb 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
20 Feb 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
12 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
11 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
9 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
7 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
27 Feb 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
26 Feb 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
1 Oct 2024 - ATP Beijing Open
12 Jul 2024 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
17 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells
17 Nov 2023 - ATP Finals
8 Sept 2023 - ATP US Open
14 Jul 2023 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Carlos Alcaraz - Daniil Medvedev Key Points
- More than 19.5 games have been played in two of the last three matches Alcaraz has played.
- Of the previous four best-of-three sets matches played between Alcaraz and Medvedev, three saw more than 19.5 games played.
- A 7-5 or 7-6 set would help our prediction. One has been played in four of the last five matches between these two players.
- Three of the four outdoor hard court matches played between Alcaraz and Medvedev have included a 7-5 or 7-6 set.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Between them these two players have a 33-2 record on outdoor hard courts this year. Both have won two titles on this surface and only dropped one set between them in this tournament. We could therefore be in for a long match between Alcaraz and Medvedev, though we believe the Spaniard will come out on top.
Medvedev won his last tournament and is yet to drop a set here but only faced one top ten player (Auger-Aliassime) on this unbeaten run. Our main Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev prediction is more than 19.5 games.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
