Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Indian Wells
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Indian Wells Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz is yet to lose a match this year. Round four of the BNP Paribas Open sees the Spaniard take on 14th seed Casper Ruud. The winner plays either Cameron Norrie or Rinky Hijikata in the last eight. Read our match prediction below.
Carlos Alcaraz won this outdoor hard court tournament in both 2023 and 2024. He was a semi-finalist last year and the world number one has been in excellent form in 2026. He's won the Australian Open and most recently Doha.
This tournament has seen him win two matches to take his 2026 record to 14-0. Wins have come against Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets but he had to come from a set down to then beat Arthur Rinderknech.
He leads Ruud 5-1 in previous meetings and 4-0 on this surface.
Ruud is attempting to reach the quarter-finals of this Sunshine Swing Masters event for the second time, the other in 2024. He has won seven of his 12 matches this year. Although he has a poor record against Alcaraz, Ruud has won a set in three of their last four matches.
To reach round four, he's had a straight sets win over Alexander Shevchenko but had to go to a third set to get past Valentin Vacherot.
We go for more than 18.5 games.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Casper Ruud Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.06 | 9.2 |
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1.06 | 8.9 |
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|
1.07 | 9 |
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1.05 | 8 |
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1.05 | 8 |
|
Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud match is: more than 18.5 games.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud game on 11/03/2026 of the current ATP Indian Wells season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 79.24% chance to win against Casper Ruud according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.07.
- Casper Ruud has a 20.76% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 9.5 at Betway.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 79.24 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 79.24 % |
| Casper Ruud | 20.76 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
9 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
7 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
21 Feb 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
20 Feb 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
19 Feb 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
18 Feb 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
9 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
7 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
24 Feb 2026 - ATP Acapulco Open
20 Feb 2026 - ATP Delray Beach Open
18 Feb 2026 - ATP Delray Beach Open
26 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
80 %
20 %
29 Sept 2025 - ATP Japan Open
11 Nov 2024 - ATP Finals
2 Oct 2023 - ATP Beijing Open
11 Sept 2022 - ATP US Open
3 Apr 2022 - ATP Miami
Carlos Alcaraz - Casper Ruud Key Points
- More than 18.5 games have been played in each of the last three matches played between these two players over three sets.
- Ruud has won a set against Alcaraz in three of their last four matches.
- A 7-5 or 7-6 set would be great news for our prediction. Alcaraz has played at least one in eight of his last ten matches.
- Ruud has played four tie-breaks in his last three matches.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz has a good record against Casper Ruud but his opponent regularly puts up a good battle. That may well be the case again as the two players meet in round four of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells.
Alcaraz is yet to lose a match this year but had to go to three sets in his last match. Eight of his last ten matches have seen a 7-5 or 7-6 set played. Casper Ruud has also played a three-setter this week and our Carlos Alcaraz v Casper Ruud prediction is more than 18.5 games.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
