Spain - LaLiga
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Kennedy Kechula | in LaLiga Predictions
Atletico Madrid are set for back-to-back Madrid derbies as they make moves to stabilize a shaky start to their season. The first of the two league outings is a home match against Rayo Vallecano, with both sides looking to rise into the top half. We have a prediction for the match below.
Atletico will be at home seeking to recover from their late concession that earned Mallorca a 1-1 draw. This result left Atletico still on one win after six competitive matches in the season.
Diego Simeone’s side has only managed to beat Villarreal this season. Three draws in their opening five league matches isn’t a good enough return. However, a 10-game unbeaten run against this opponent gives them hope.
Rayo’s best attempts against Atletico yielded two draws in their last 10 matches. They will hope to do better this time. The visitors opened their season with a win, beating Girona 3-1.
They haven't been able to add a win in the four matches that have come afterwards. That mission will be even tougher against Atletico, who are warming up for a game against Real Madrid.
Ahead of this game, Rayo had to rise from a goal down to draw Celta Vigo 1-1. It has been 12 years since Rayo last won this fixture, and it doesn’t feel like a derby anymore.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
The Best Betting Odds for Atletico Madrid v Rayo Vallecano Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.44 | 4.33 | 8 |
|
|
1.5 | 4 | 7 |
|
|
1.44 | 4 | 7 |
|
|
1.45 | 4.33 | 7 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.4 | 7 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano match is: Atletico Madrid to win to nil.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/09/2025 between Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 60.83% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Rayo Vallecano with odds of 1.5 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano is 17.99% with odds of 4.5 at Bwin.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.18% chance ⭐ for a win of Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 8 at Bet365.
Atletico Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 60.83% | 1.5 at Betfred |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.64% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 42.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Atletico Madrid/Atletico Madrid | 25.52% | 2.15 at Ladbrokes |
Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Form
Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
25 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
|
12
|
15 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 |
Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
23 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
18 May 2025 - LaLiga
10 May 2025 - LaLiga
24 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
14 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2025 - Conference League
25 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
21 Aug 2025 - Conference League
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2025 - Conference League
24 May 2025 - LaLiga
15 May 2025 - LaLiga
2 May 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
25 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
21 Aug 2025 - Conference League
15 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
22 Sept 2024 - LaLiga
31 Jan 2024 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2023 - LaLiga
9 Apr 2023 - LaLiga
18 Oct 2022 - LaLiga
Atletico Madrid against Rayo Vallecano Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
J. Gimenez
MidfielderT. Almada
J. Cardoso
ForwardA. Sorloth
A. Mumin
L. Felipe
MidfielderR. Nteka
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
J. Alvarez
(9 Goals)
J. De Frutos
(5 Goals)
,
A. Garcia
(5 Goals)
G. Simeone
(5 Assists)
P. Chavarria
(2 Assists)
, 
A. Ratiu
(2 Assists)
,
U. Lopez
(2 Assists)
,
A. Garcia
(2 Assists)
,
I. Palazon
(2 Assists)
Atletico Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Key Points
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in six home league matches.
- Atletico Madrid kept clean sheets in three of their last five home league games.
- In 21 home league matches, Atletico Madrid only suffered one defeat.
- Rayo Vallecano lost to nil in three of their last six away league matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Rayo Vallecano haven't really been able to give this matchup a derby feeling. This would have been an opportune moment with Atletico enduring a tough start to the season. However, compared to their hosts, Rayo aren’t better in many ways.
Their only win so far this season was against the side at the foot of the table. It is Atletico who come here as the favorites, having won eight of the last 10 meetings. Our prediction for Atletico Madrid v Rayo Vallecano is for Atletico Madrid to win to nil.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano
| Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 1.4 | 1.44 | +2.9% |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.33 | +1.9% |
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 7.5 | 8 | +6.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 71.4% and is now 69.4% (-2.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's LaLiga! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
