England - Premier League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Premier League Predictions
Arsenal will hope to continue their strong recent record against Leeds as the sides clash in a matchday two fixture of the 2025-26 English Premier League campaign. This match on Saturday in London between the Gunners and the Whites comes with our prediction of an Arsenal -1 handicap win.
Both teams started their Premier League campaign with contrasting 1-0 wins. Arsenal were ran close by Manchester United, although the win was never in doubt. Leeds were comfortable winners against Everton regardless of the final score and will hope to build on that result to ease the nerves as they aim to ensure Premier League safety.
Playing promoted sides has worked in Arsenal's favor in recent times. To go with that, Leeds haven't won against Arsenal in any competition since May 2003, when Mark Viduka's late winner famously ended Arsenal's title challenge. Will that excellent record extend for the Gunners? Or will the Whites spring a surprise and keep the hosts in check? Read further for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Arsenal v Leeds Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.33 | 5.25 | 8 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.5 | 10 |
|
|
1.35 | 5 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.25 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.32 | 5.4 | 9.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Leeds match is: Arsenal -1 European handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/08/2025 between Arsenal and Leeds in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.06% for a win of Arsenal against Leeds with odds of 1.37 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Leeds is 23.33% with odds of 5.6 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.6% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Arsenal with odds of 10 at Betfred.
Arsenal - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 48.06% | 1.37 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 54.29% | 2.3 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 47.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Arsenal/Arsenal | 20.96% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
Arsenal vs Leeds Form
Arsenal and Leeds's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
|
15
|
8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 |
Arsenal and Leeds Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
23 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
23 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
18 May 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
25 May 2025 - Premier League
11 May 2025 - Premier League
7 May 2025 - Champions League
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Apr 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 May 2025 - Championship
28 Apr 2025 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
28 Apr 2025 - Championship
21 Apr 2025 - Championship
12 Apr 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 May 2025 - Championship
18 Apr 2025 - Championship
8 Apr 2025 - Championship
5 Apr 2025 - Championship
15 Mar 2025 - Championship
Arsenal vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Apr 2023 - Premier League
16 Oct 2022 - Premier League
8 May 2022 - Premier League
18 Dec 2021 - Premier League
26 Oct 2021 - Carabao Cup
14 Feb 2021 - Premier League
Arsenal - Leeds: Form Analysis
Arsenal needed a blunder from Manchester United keeper Altay Bayindir to win 1-0 in their opening match of the Premier League season. That away victory continued their recent winning run, as the Gunners have six wins across their last eight games including friendlies.
Last year's runners-up, who finished with the league's best defensive record last season (34 goals conceded), will be delighted to escape from Old Trafford with a clean sheet in what was always going to be a difficult way to open the season.
With defending champions Liverpool up next in the fixture list, Arsenal can't afford to drop points here. Having won ten of their last 12 home matches against Leeds (W10, L2), Arsenal look primed to continue their winning start.
Arsenal won 12 of their last 14 matches against Leeds in all competitions.
Back in the top flight, Leeds started with a 1-0 home win against Everton last Monday thanks to a Lukas Nmecha penalty in the 84th minute. That, at least, halted a run of three consecutive draws in friendly fixtures before the season. Despite the opening matchday win, surviving the drop remains Leeds' priority for the season.
Leeds have a great chance to create history, as they haven't won their first two games of a Premier League campaign since 2002-03. Defeating Arsenal would require a mammoth effort, although Daniel Farke's men could relish pushing Arsenal.
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Players list
D. Raya
DefenderC. Mosquera
W. Saliba
G. Magalhaes
M. Lewis-Skelly
MidfielderE. Nwaneri
M. Zubimendi
D. Rice
ForwardL. Trossard
V. Gyokeres
M. Dowman
L. Perri
DefenderS. Byram
J. Rodon
P. Struijk
G. Gudmundsson
MidfielderS. Longstaff
I. Gruev
A. Stach
ForwardB. Aaronson
L. Nmecha
N. Okafor
Substitutes
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderJ. Kiwior
C. Mosquera
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Dowman
M. Merino
L. Trossard
G. Martinelli
E. Nwaneri
K. Darlow
DefenderJ. Bijol
S. Byram
S. Bornauw
MidfielderJ. Harrison
S. Longstaff
B. Aaronson
N. Okafor
L. Nmecha
Missing players
C. Norgaard
ForwardG. Jesus
K. Havertz
E. Ampadu
ForwardD. Calvert-Lewin
Arsenal & Leeds Squad Analysis
Arsenal received a setback against United last weekend as Kai Havertz was ruled out with a knee injury. Gabriel Jesus is already on the treatment table, while there's optimism around the incoming player Eberechi Eze.
The Crystal Palace forward is on the verge of signing for Arsenal but would need to be registered by 12pm UK time on Friday to be available for this fixture. Regardless, Arsenal should continue in either their preferred 4-3-3 system or a version of a 4-2-3-1 with new boy Viktor Gyokeres leading the line.
Another debutant, Martin Zubimendi, should continue in defensive midfield while Jurrien Timber could replace Ben White, who was substituted at Old Trafford.
Bukayo Saka has scored six of his last seven league goals at this venue!
Leeds lined up in a 4-3-3 against Everton that had Joel Piroe leading the line, flanked by tricky wingers Wilfried Gnonto and Daniel James. They're likely to continue in a similar shape, which could see them drop back to a 4-1-4-1 on the defensive side.
Ethan Ampadu sustained an MCL injury against Everton and will be out until the international break. Jaka Bijol is back from suspension, while new signing Dominic Calvert-Lewin will fancy a shot in this game. Another latest recruit, Noah Okafor, who arrived from AC Milan on Thursday, could get to play a part in this match.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Leeds
G. Martinelli
(3 Goals)
, 
B. Saka
(3 Goals)
, 
V. Gyokeres
(3 Goals)
N. Okafor
(2 Goals)
E. Eze
(2 Assists)
, 
L. Trossard
(2 Assists)
,
D. Rice
(2 Assists)
, 
R. Calafiori
(2 Assists)
, 
M. Odegaard
(2 Assists)
S. Longstaff
(1 Assists)
,
J. Bogle
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Stach
(1 Assists)
Arsenal - Leeds Key Points
- Arsenal have won 12 of their last 14 matches against Leeds in all competitions, winning each of the recent six.
- Arsenal won six of their last eight games including friendlies.
- Leeds conceded at least two goals to Arsenal in their last six defeats.
- Leeds lost six of their last eight Premier League matches, going back to the 2022-23 season.
- Leeds have lost 23 of their most recent 30 away league matches in London (W4, D3, L23).
- That includes losing each of their last seven in the Premier League.
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Our Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction
Arsenal started the season with a win at Manchester United but weren't at their dominating best. There were phases when they struggled, and United could have easily won a point. Still, the Gunners are off the mark and will look to add another win here to continue the momentum. Leeds have also started with a win but have traditionally struggled against Arsenal.
Looking at Arsenal's record in this fixture and their recent run against newly promoted sides, our Arsenal vs Leeds prediction is Arsenal -1 European handicap.
Arsenal vs Leeds - Other Interesting Predictions
Bukayo Saka to score anytime
Bukayo Saka was kept quiet by Manchester United, but the Arsenal winger is likely to fancy his chances of getting a goal against Leeds. Saka has scored six of his last seven Premier League goals at this venue and could be a handful for the visitors. Back him to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Leeds
| Arsenal vs Leeds | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0% |
| Draw | 6.25 | 5.25 | -16.0% |
| Leeds wins | 7 | 8 | +14.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 75.2% and is now 75.2% (0.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Arsenal vs. Leeds game!
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Arsenal vs Leeds match : Frequently asked questions
The Arsenal vs Leeds English Premier League match will be live on Sky Sports Football in the UK. It will be broadcast on their Main Event and Premier League channels.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our English Premier League Livescore page!
Yes! Arsenal are currently on an unbeaten run of 42 games in the English Premier League hosting against newly promoted sides. That included 37 wins and five draws. If they can avoid a defeat here against Leeds, they will equal the Premier League record of 43 games by Chelsea between 2001 and 2015.
Taking away games also into consideration, Arsenal have won 22 of their last 23 Premier League matches against newly promoted sides, including each of the last 12.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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