UFC - UFC 321
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
We've got a high-stakes heavyweight bout at UFC 321 when Alexander Volkov steps in against Jailton Almeida. And this fight will be all about takedown ability. Can the lanky, technical striker keep the submission-hunting Brazilian off him? Check out our best pick in this Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida match prediction.
Based on the numbers and their careers, it's a huge mountain for Volkov to climb. Alexander, or Drago as they call him, is a fantastic kickboxer, but he's always had that clear weakness against high-level grappling. His most recent fight, a decision loss to Ciryl Gane in December 2024, showed he can still get out-struck by a quicker opponent.
Now he's facing a specialist who wants nothing to do with standing up. Jailton "Malhadinho" Almeida is an absolute freak of nature in the division. He is averaging an insane 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing them at a 60% clip. That's a phenomenal stat for any weight class, let alone heavyweight.
Once he gets you down, the fight is effectively over. He holds the UFC heavyweight record for control time in a fight (21:10), proving his dominance is total. Volkov's 72% takedown defense might look decent, but he has been neutralized by the best wrestlers he has faced. Almeida is going to apply suffocating pressure that Drago simply won't be able to shake.
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Alexander Volkov - Jailton Almeida Key Points
- Jailton Almeida successfully lands 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 60% accuracy.
- Almeida is a record-holder in the UFC for most control time in a single heavyweight fight (21:10).
- Alexander Volkov's biggest career losses have consistently come against elite, dominant grapplers.
- Almeida has an incredible 95.5% professional finishing rate in his wins.
- Almeida absorbs the lowest amount of significant strikes per minute in UFC history (0.89).
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Our Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida Prediction
This is a matchup where styles truly make fights, and this style dramatically favors Jailton Almeida. He possesses the confidence, the wrestling pedigree, and especially, the devastating control that has undone Volkov in the past.
We fully expect Almeida to march forward, secure the takedown, and completely smother Volkov on the mat. Whether it's a ground-and-pound TKO or a dominant decision, the victory belongs to the Brazilian. Hence, our Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida match prediction is that Jailton Almeida wins by KO, TKO, DQ, or Decision.
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