Wrexham vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in FA Cup Predictions
Welsh will meets West London wealth this weekend, when Wrexham welcome Chelsea to the Racecourse Ground for arguably the most intriguing clash of the fifth round in the FA Cup. The Dragons are sixth in the Championship standings, while the Blues are in fifth place in the Premier League. Check out our match prediction below!
Wrexham’s meteoric rise with back-to-back-to-back promotions in the last three seasons has been nothing short of remarkable. Phil Parkinson’s side are firmly in the running to reach the Playoffs in the Championship this term and are making their first appearance in round five of this competition since 1996-97 this weekend.
However, standing in their way are the eight-time FA Cup champions. The West Londoners have got to the final four of this competition in six of the last nine seasons and have progressed from their last 24 FA Cup ties against lower-division teams, dating back over a decade. A battle of giants vs giant-killers awaits - let’s get into the key stats!
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Wrexham v Chelsea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
|
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5.2 | 4.52 | 1.56 |
|
|
5.4 | 4.62 | 1.54 |
|
|
6 | 4.75 | 1.45 |
|
|
5.2 | 4.5 | 1.54 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Wrexham and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Wrexham vs Chelsea match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/03/2026 between Wrexham and Chelsea in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.12% for a win of Wrexham against Chelsea with odds of 7.6 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Wrexham vs Chelsea is 24.07% with odds of 5.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 44.81% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Wrexham with odds of 1.56 at Melbet.
Wrexham - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Wrexham Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 44.81% | 1.56 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.11% | 1.57 at Betway |
| Both Team To Score | 70.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Chelsea | 17.42% | 4.75 at Bet365 |
Wrexham vs Chelsea Form
Wrexham and Chelsea Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
17 Feb 2026 - Championship
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
17 Feb 2026 - Championship
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
Wrexham vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Wrexham - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Wrexham kicked off their FA Cup campaign with a statement result, beating top-flight opposition Nottingham Forest on penalties after a 2-2 draw, before ousting Ipswich Town 1-0 in round four last month.
The Dragons pulled within three points of fifth-placed Hull City in the Championship over the weekend with a 1-0 victory over Charlton and are now unbeaten in their last five in all competitions (W4 D1).
This week’s hosts are also on a three-match win streak at home and have scored two or more goals in six of their last 10 games at this venue. They’ve netted seven times in their last two at home ahead of this one.
This is the first meeting between Wrexham and Chelsea since February 1982!
Meanwhile, Chelsea eased into the fifth round of the FA Cup with two commanding victories against lower-division opposition Charlton (5-1) and Hull City (4-0) in rounds three and four, respectively.
After three matches without victory in the Premier League, the Blues returned to winning ways in style at the weekend, beating Aston Villa 4-1 on the road to move back up to fifth place in the table.
The visitors have won six of their last eight away matches in all competitions (L2) and scored two or more goals in each of those victories. Both losses during this period came against Arsenal.
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Wrexham against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
D. Ward
DefenderD. Scarr
MidfielderL. Brunt
R. Barnett
J. Windass
J. Rodriguez
D. Keillor-Dunn
N. Broadhead
K. Moore
T. Sharman-Lowe
DefenderR. James
M. Gusto
M. Cucurella
T. Chalobah
MidfielderJ. Derry
D. Essugo
Joao Pedro
M. Guiu
Missing players
L. Cacace
A. James
MidfielderM. James
B. Sheaf
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Estevao
Wrexham & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Josh Windass will be looking to continue his strong form in this competition. The Wrexham attacking midfielder scored the winner in round four and has five goals in his last five FA Cup starts - all of which have come at home.
Kieffer Moore is another to keep an eye on for the Dragons here. He has notched up 13 goals and four assists in all competitions this term, and his sharpness in the box could cause problems for the Blues’ backline.
George Dobson broke a bone in his wrist against Charlton at the weekend and is a doubt, along with Issa Kabore and Nathan Broadhead. Ben Sheaf, Matty James, Lewis Brunt and Aaron James are out injured.
Pedro Neto has scored four goals in his two FA Cup matches for Chelsea this season!
The Portuguese international scored a hat-trick against the Tigers in the last round and is almost certain to start this match after missing the trip to Villa Park due to a one-match red-card suspension.
With one eye on their UCL game against PSG in midweek, Rosenior will likely look to give some of his regulars a rest, which could open the door for the likes of Liam Delap, Romeo Lavia and Andrey Santos to get a starting role.
Marc Cucurella returned to the squad in midweek, which means the visitors' injury list now features only Estevao, Jamie Gittens, Dario Essugo and long-term absentee Levi Colwill.
Wrexham - Chelsea Key Points
- Three of Wrexham’s last four games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Wrexham have only failed to score in one home game across all competitions this season.
- Eight of Chelsea’s last 10 games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Chelsea have only kept one clean sheet in their last 13 away matches across all competitions.
- Chelsea have scored two or more goals in six of their last eight away games.
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Our Wrexham vs Chelsea Prediction
While Wrexham are expectedly installed as the underdogs in this clash, their rise through the ranks in recent years has been truly incredible, and this is a side that genuinely relishes these types of challenges.
Chelsea have been very good on the road of late, only losing to Arsenal since January 7, but they have relied heavily on outscoring opponents to get results, having only kept one clean sheet in their last 13 away games. Therefore, our Wrexham vs Chelsea prediction is BTTS.
Wrexham vs Chelsea Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Seven of Wrexham’s last 10 home games have ended with over 2.5 goals, while Chelsea have scored two or more goals in six of their last eight on the road across all competitions.
Chelsea wins
Chelsea have won six of their last eight away games in all competitions and have progressed from their last 24 FA Cup ties against lower-division teams.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Wrexham Chelsea
| Wrexham vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham wins | 6.9 | 7.6 | +10.1% |
| Draw | 5 | 5.2 | +4.0% |
| Chelsea wins | 1.42 | 1.56 | +9.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 9.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 70.4% and is now 64.1% (-6.3%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Wrexham vs. Chelsea game
You can get yourself up to €100 in matched bets for the battle between Wrexham and Chelsea when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on FA Cup!
Wrexham vs Chelsea - FAQs
The FA Cup match between Wrexham and Chelsea will take place on March 7 at 17:45 GMT.
The FA Cup match between Wrexham and Chelsea will be played at the Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.
The FA Cup match between Wrexham and Chelsea will be broadcast on BBC One in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our FA Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
