USA vs Paraguay Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Kennedy Kechula | in World Cup Predictions
The USA will headline Group D of the 2026 World Cup, playing as a co-host and starting off against Paraguay. This match, which will be staged at the SoFi Stadium, marks the 10th meeting between the nations. It is their first World Cup meeting since their 1930 clash, and with the USA boasting five wins in the earlier nine meetings, our prediction backs them here.
This encounter represents the first competitive meeting between the two in the last 10 years. The USA will be gunning for a fourth straight win in this fixture. Paraguay are returning to the competition after a 16-year hiatus. Before being frozen out, Paraguay had qualifiers for four straight editions between 1998 and 2010.
In their last appearance, they had their best World Cup run, reaching the quarter-finals in 2010. They hope to better that against a USA side looking to set a new record by going past the semis.
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USA v Paraguay Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.05 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
|
|
2.03 | 3.38 | 4.13 |
|
|
2.09 | 3.18 | 3.84 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.18 | 3.84 |
|
|
2.03 | 3.38 | 4.13 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between USA and Paraguay?
Our prediction for the USA vs Paraguay match is: USA wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/06/2026 between USA and Paraguay in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 49.06% for a win of USA against Paraguay with odds of 2.16 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between USA vs Paraguay is 16.56% with odds of 151 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.38% chance ⭐ for a win of Paraguay vs USA with odds of 1001 at Betway.
USA - Paraguay Prediction and Best Odds:
| USA Paraguay Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| USA wins | 49.06% | 2.16 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.77% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | 2.15 at LSbet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: USA | 26.33% | 5.25 at LSbet |
USA vs Paraguay Form
USA and Paraguay's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 |
|
3
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
USA and Paraguay Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 May 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 May 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
23 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - International Friendlies
27 Jun 2024 - Copa America
20 Nov 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
27 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - World Cup
15 Oct 2024 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
27 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
10 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
USA vs Paraguay Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
27 Mar 2018 - International Friendlies
USA - Paraguay: Form Analysis
The only other time the USA hosted the world in such a tournament, they exited in the round of 16, knocked out by Brazil in 1994. This time they’ll want to go further, having also ended their run at that stage at Qatar 2022.
In this edition, the USA will reach 40 games at the World Cup, and in their first match, they will be targeting a 10th WC win. Being hosts, the USA didn’t have to go through the qualifiers. However, as they resume competitive action, the Stars and Stripes will be keen on improving after a dismal run in pre-tournament friendly games. Their 2-1 loss to Germany was the third in four matches ahead of the World Cup.
The USA have played 10 more World Cup matches than Paraguay.
Paraguay’s run ahead of the finals has been the complete opposite; they’ve won three of their latest four matches. However, their 4-0 win over Nicaragua was their only warmup match in this window.
Coach Gustavo Alfaro will hope the preparation gained from that match was sufficient as he leads Paraguay to their ninth World Cup. Failure to win six of their last 10 matches remains a concern, but the major one is definitely their run of form against the USA. La Albirroja lost each of the last three meetings with the USA, only scoring once.
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USA against Paraguay Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
C. Brady
M. Turner
DefenderJ. Scally
M. McKenzie
M. Robinson
M. Arfsten
A. Trusty
MidfielderS. Berhalter
G. Reyna
C. Roldan
ForwardB. Aaronson
T. Weah
R. Pepi
A. Zendejas
H. Wright
G. Olveira
G. Fernandez
DefenderA. Maidana
J. Canale
F. Balbuena
G. Velazquez
B. Ojeda
Mauricio
G. Caballero
R. Sosa
M. Galarza
ForwardI. Pitta
A. Arce
A. Romero Gamarra
G. Avalos
USA & Paraguay Squad Analysis
Italy-based forward Christian Pulisic will be the star man for the USA at this World Cup. With 33 goals for his national team, the AC Milan man ranks fifth among the nation’s all-time leading scorers. He had a goal and an assist in their warm-up game against Senegal, featuring for 45 minutes.
He got 62 minutes against Germany and will be looking to add to his three goal involvements in the last four matches for club and country. The last time these nations met, Gio Reyna was on target. He will be looking to add to that after earning a call-up in an injury-ravaged season. He only started four of the 19 matches he played at Borussia Monchengladbach.
Matt Freese and Matt Turner will be fighting for the No. 1 slot on the USA team.
Paraguay’s preparations for this game suffered a massive blow as one of their key men, Julio Enciso, got injured days before kickoff. The Strasbourg forward, one of the best attackers in the team, lasted just 25 minutes in the friendly win against Nicaragua.
He was replaced by Palmeiras player Mauricio after experiencing a muscular strain, and Paraguay fans will be awaiting news on his fitness. For a player who completed his season with five goal involvements in three matches, this is surely a major hit. Miguel Almiron, who scored against Nicaragua, will be expected to take the mantle in attack.
Most goals and assists
USA
Paraguay
F. Balogun
(3 Goals)
Mauricio
(1 Goals)
,
M. Galarza
(1 Goals)
,
J. Enciso
(1 Goals)
C. Pulisic
(1 Assists)
,
M. Tillman
(1 Assists)
,
A. Freeman
(1 Assists)
,
S. Berhalter
(1 Assists)
J. Enciso
(2 Assists)
USA - Paraguay Key Points
- The USA have won five of their last nine outings.
- The USA won 2-1 on home soil with a largely reshuffled side when these two teams last met in 2025.
- Paraguay have suffered five defeats in nine against the USA in history.
- Paraguay won just one of nine away matches in CONMEBOL qualifying, scoring only five goals on the road.
- Paraguay averaged under a goal per game (14 in 18) across CONMEBOL qualifying.
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Our USA vs Paraguay Prediction
The USA have been dominant in this fixture and will be going into this match seeking to extend that. In their last three meetings with Paraguay, they posted wins, a lift they will want to look at, coming off three friendly match defeats in four games.
Paraguay lost their only World Cup meeting with the USA to date, a statistic they’ll be keen to address. However, playing only Nicaragua as a warm-up leaves questions ast to their readiness to face the hosts and a biased crowd. Paraguay also scored just once in their last three competitive matches. Our prediction for the USA v Paraguay is that the USA wins.
USA vs Paraguay Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
The USA’s last two matches were settled by one-goal margins but were both high-scoring. Four of their latest five outings had at least three goals, and we may see the same here. That is even more likely looking at Paraguay’s recent run of results.
The South Americans scored four in their last outing, bringing it to four out of five the number of times their matches have had 3+ goals. Our second prediction, therefore, will be for more than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis USA Paraguay
| USA vs Paraguay | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA wins | 1.89 | 2.16 | +14.3% |
| Draw | 3.28 | 151 | +4,503.7% |
| Paraguay wins | 4.56 | 1001 | +21,851.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- USA is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 14.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.9% and is now 46.3% (-6.6%)
USA vs Paraguay - FAQs
The USA v Paraguay match will be played on Saturday, 13th June, 2026.
The USA v Paraguay match will be played at the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
