Ukraine vs Sweden Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
Ukraine and Sweden will look to move one step closer to the 2026 FIFA World Cup when they play each other in a one-leg semi-final on Thursday in Valencia. This match will be played at the neutral venue, and our prediction is for both teams to score goals. The ‘Blue and Yellow’ of Ukraine are the hosts, while the Swedish ‘Blågult’ are the visitors. Poland or Albania awaits the winner of this match to qualify for the World Cup.
Ukraine’s last World Cup appearance was in 2006, so they will be desperate to end that wait. The ongoing conflict in the region has kept them away from their homeland on neutral territory for their home matches. That hasn’t stopped them from winning their last two designated home games in the qualifiers.
Sweden didn’t qualify for the 2022 World Cup and are in the play-offs only because of their UEFA Nations League (UNL) performances. Recent form doesn’t augur well for the Swedes, but will they rise up to the occasion? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Ukraine v Sweden Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7 | 4.25 | 1.4 |
|
|
3.38 | 3.22 | 2.23 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.28 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.25 | 2.28 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Ukraine and Sweden?
Our prediction for the Ukraine vs Sweden match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/03/2026 between Ukraine and Sweden in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 56.04% for a win of Ukraine against Sweden with odds of 7 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ukraine vs Sweden is 19.55% with odds of 4.25 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 24.41% chance ⭐ for a win of Sweden vs Ukraine with odds of 2.32 at Tonybet.
Ukraine - Sweden Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ukraine Sweden Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine wins | 56.04% | 7 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 51.51% | 1.88 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Ukraine | 25.61% | 7.75 at LSbet |
Ukraine vs Sweden Form
Ukraine and Sweden Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
22 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Ukraine vs Sweden Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Jun 2021 - Euro
Ukraine - Sweden: Form Analysis
Ukraine finished second in Group D of the UEFA World Cup qualifiers with ten points (W3, D1, L2). They were six points behind eventual group winners France, who were the only team to defeat them in the qualification campaign.
A strong run of three wins from their last four qualifiers (L1) gives Ukraine a strong chance to push for a win here. The Ukrainians have also won their last two designated home games, over Azerbaijan and Iceland, both times scoring exactly two goals.
Ukraine kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 matches.
Sweden had a disastrous World Cup qualification campaign, finishing bottom of their Group B with no wins (D2, L4). They were nine points off the top two spots, and only because of their UNL finish do the Swedes have a shot in the play-offs.
They come here with four defeats in their last five matches (D1) and their last competitive win dating back to November 2024 in the UNL campaign. Their form isn’t any different on the road, as Sweden lost their last two away competitive matches as well.
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Ukraine against Sweden Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
D. Riznyk
R. Neshcheret
DefenderB. Mykhaylichenko
O. Svatok
MidfielderE. Sarapii
O. Ocheretko
M. Shaparenko
O. Pikhalyonok
O. Gutsulyak
ForwardM. Ponomarenko
N. Voloshyn
R. Yaremchuk
M. Ellborg
N. Tornqvist
DefenderD. Svensson
C. Starfelt
E. Smith
MidfielderL. Bergvall
R. Bardghji
H. Larsson
B. Zeneli
M. Svanberg
ForwardT. Ali
G. Nilsson
Ukraine & Sweden Squad Analysis
Ukraine’s squad doesn’t feature Oleksandr Zinchenko, who suffered an ACL injury with Ajax in February. Artem Dovbyk of Roma also misses out because of a hamstring injury. Mykola Matvienko is another miss in the centre of the defence.
The Ukrainians have usually lined up in a 4-5-1 formation, unless they went a bit more defensive in a 5-3-2 system. Ruslan Malinovskyi could be crucial from the midfield, having scored three goals in the World Cup qualifiers.
Oleksiy Gutsulyak has been a super sub, scoring three goals in the qualifiers.
Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, Emil Krafth and Ken Sema are missing from the Swedish squad. Coach Graham Potter will have the option of calling Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Lucas Bergvall from the bench after he made a return from injury over the last week.
The Swedes are likely to line up in a 4-4-2 formation, unless they look to step back and stifle the midfield with five in the middle. Either way, their hopes would be on the Arsenal striker finding form in national colours. He failed to score in any of his four World Cup qualifiers, although he netted nine in six UNL matches.
Most goals and assists
Ukraine
Sweden
M. Ponomarenko
(4 Goals)
V. Gyokeres
(16 Goals)
O. Gutsulyak
(2 Assists)
B. Nygren
(8 Assists)
Ukraine - Sweden Key Points
- Ukraine kept just one clean sheet in their six World Cup qualifying games this campaign.
- Sweden are yet to keep a clean sheet in their six qualifiers of this World Cup qualification cycle.
- Three of Ukraine’s last five home competitive matches produced goals from both teams.
- Four of Sweden’s last six away competitive matches produced BTTS.
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Our Ukraine vs Sweden Prediction
This is a great chance for Ukraine to end their long exile from the World Cup scene, but Sweden have a bigger task at hand. The Swedes have struggled in their World Cup qualification campaign, which doesn’t inspire confidence ahead of this trip. The only solace is that Ukraine won’t have a home advantage, but they are used to that and have managed successive wins in the qualifiers playing in neutral venues.
Both teams have been notoriously short of confidence in their backline, which could continue here. Our Ukraine vs Sweden prediction is BTTS.
Ukraine vs Sweden Alternative Predictions
Ukraine wins
Sweden have lost four of their last five matches in the World Cup qualifiers and look devoid of confidence. Ukraine, on the other hand, have won three of their last four and will fancy their chances here and move closer to qualification.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ukraine Sweden
| Ukraine vs Sweden | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine wins | 2.36 | 7 | +196.6% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 4.25 | +26.9% |
| Sweden wins | 2.95 | 2.32 | -21.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ukraine is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 196.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.4% and is now 14.3% (-28.1%)
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Ukraine vs Sweden - FAQs
The Ukraine vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Qualification Play-offs match will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video. The match can be viewed in Ukraine primarily through national broadcasters Suspilne or MEGOGO. In Sweden, the match can be watched on FIFA+ or through Prime Video.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our FIFA World Cup Qualification Play-offs Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
