Tottenham vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Matchday 36 draws to a close with a classic Premier League six-pointer on Monday night, when 17th-placed Tottenham Hotspur play host to Leeds United (14th). Spurs and the Whites have the fourth and fifth-worst defensive records, respectively, in the EPL this season, and our main prediction is around the goals market in this match.
The Lilywhites pulled off a massive victory at Villa Park last week, which saw them move one point clear of West Ham and out of the drop zone. With the Irons set to face title-chasing Arsenal this week, Roberto De Zerbi’s men could move to the brink of safety with a victory here, but it will not be a straightforward task.
Despite beating Burnley last week, Leeds can still mathematically be relegated this season, but with a seven-point buffer above the dotted line, three points here will guarantee their top-flight status for another year. Daniel Farke’s side have had a solid second half of the season, with only six teams earning more points than them since the start of last December. To the key stats!
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Tottenham v Leeds Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.82 | 3.85 | 4.3 |
|
|
1.84 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.78 | 3.96 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.75 | 3.9 | 4.33 |
|
|
1.79 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Tottenham and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Tottenham vs Leeds match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/05/2026 between Tottenham and Leeds in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 33.73% for a win of Tottenham against Leeds with odds of 1.85 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Tottenham vs Leeds is 31.7% with odds of 4.17 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Tottenham with odds of 4.4 at Tonybet.
Tottenham - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Tottenham Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 34.57% | 4.4 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.37% | 1.97 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 70.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Leeds/Leeds | 14.3% | 7.5 at Bet365 |
Tottenham vs Leeds Form
Tottenham and Leeds's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14
|
47 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | -7 |
|
17
|
41 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | -9 |
Tottenham and Leeds Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
5 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 May 2026 - Premier League
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
13 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 May 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
13 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
Tottenham vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
0 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
28 May 2023 - Premier League
12 Nov 2022 - Premier League
26 Feb 2022 - Premier League
21 Nov 2021 - Premier League
8 May 2021 - Premier League
Tottenham - Leeds: Form Analysis
Tottenham Hotspur are showing that they will not go down without a fight. After beating Aston Villa 2-1 on the road last week, they are now unbeaten in their last three league matches (D1 L2).
The Lilywhites have earned as many points in their last three league games (7) as their previous 15, and are now aiming to win three EPL matches in a row for the first time since February 2025.
The hosts have only taken 11 points from 17 league matches at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this term. However, they have won their last six home games against their upcoming opponents.
Spurs have conceded the second-most home goals in the Prem this season (30)!
Meanwhile, Leeds United moved above Crystal Palace to 14th in the league standings after picking up their 10th win of the season, beating already-relegated Burnley 3-1 at home last week.
The Whites are now unbeaten in their last six top-flight matches (D3 D3). Only the two Manchester clubs and Bournemouth have lost fewer games than Leeds (4) since last December.
While Leeds have the third-worst away record this season (W2 D8 L7), they have been tough to beat on the road of late, losing only one of their last 10 such matches - a seven-goal thriller against Newcastle.
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Tottenham against Leeds Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
B. Austin
DefenderD. Spence
R. Dragusin
Souza
MidfielderP. Sarr
A. Gray
L. Bergvall
Y. Bissouma
J. Maddison
L. Perri
DefenderJ. Lienou
S. Byram
S. Bornauw
S. Longstaff
R. Chadwick
ForwardJ. Piroe
G. Wilfried
L. Nmecha
Missing players
G. Vicario
DefenderB. Davies
C. Romero
MidfielderD. Kulusevski
M. Kudus
ForwardD. Solanke
X. Simons
W. Odobert
G. Gudmundsson
MidfielderI. Gruev
ForwardN. Okafor
Tottenham & Leeds Squad Analysis
If Spurs are to stay up, Richarlison could prove to be the main reason. The Brazilian international provided the assist in the victory over Wolves and netted the winner against Villa last week.
Richarlison and Yves Bissouma picked up knocks which forced them off in the second half of the victory at Villa Park, but neither are believed to be serious, and both players are in contention to start this match.
However, the hosts still have a lengthy injury list, with Xavi Simons, Dominic Solanke, Ben Davies, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Dejan Kulusevski, Guglielmo Vicario, and Cristian Romero all ruled out.
“In the Burnley game he pulled the left calf. He’ll likely be out the next two games.”
Those were the words of Leeds’ assistant manager Edmund Riemer regarding the fitness of Noah Okafor. The Swiss international has been in stellar form of late, providing five goal contributions in his last four games, and he will be a huge miss for the hosts this week.
Okafor’s absence will likely see Lukas Nmecha get a start. It will also place greater attacking responsibility on Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has netted in his last two home games in the EPL.
Riemer, who was standing in for an ill Daniel Farke in the post-match presser after Burnley, also confirmed that Ilia Gruev is out for the season and Gariel Gudmundsson is being assessed on a day-to-day basis.
Most goals and assists
Tottenham
Leeds
Richarlison
(11 Goals)
D. Calvert-Lewin
(14 Goals)
M. Kudus
(5 Assists)
, 
X. Simons
(5 Assists)
B. Aaronson
(5 Assists)
Tottenham - Leeds Key Points
- Seven of Tottenham’s last 10 league games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Tottenham have conceded the second-most home goals in the Premier League this season.
- Tottenham and Leeds are averaging 1.54 and 1.49 goals conceded per 90 in the EPL this season.
- Eight of Leeds’ last 10 away league games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Both teams scored in five of the last six league matches between these sides.
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Our Tottenham vs Leeds Prediction
While Tottenham have notched up back-to-back wins in their last two games, it’s going to take more than beating a relegated Wolves and a second-string Aston Villa for us to start backing them with any real confidence.
We refuse to write off Leeds here, as they have been one of the toughest teams to beat since the start of December. Matches between these two have produced goals in recent years, and we’re expecting that to be the case in this one as well. Our Tottenham vs Leeds prediction is BTTS.
Tottenham vs Leeds Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Seven of Spurs’ last 10 league games have ended with over 2.5 goals, while each of Leeds’ last four saw three or more goals scored. Additionally, over 2.5 goals were scored in each of the last 10 matches between these sides across all competitions.
Draw
Leeds have ground out draws in eight of their last 10 away league games, and we fancy them to take a share of the spoils here against a Spurs side that has only won two league home matches this season.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Tottenham Leeds
| Tottenham vs Leeds | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham wins | 2.09 | 1.85 | -11.5% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 4.17 | +19.1% |
| Leeds wins | 3.25 | 4.4 | +35.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leeds is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 35.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 30.8% and is now 22.7% (-8.0%)
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Tottenham vs Leeds - FAQs
The Premier League match between Tottenham and Leeds will take place on May 11 at 20:00 BST.
The Premier League match between Tottenham and Leeds will be played at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
The Premier League match between Tottenham and Leeds will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
