Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Tottenham may have turned a corner on Sunday with a 1-1 draw at Liverpool. Spurs need a lot more than that to reach the Champions League quarter-finals. They host Atletico Madrid after losing the away leg 5-2. Time for our match prediction.
The Lilywhites ended a losing run with Sunday's draw but are still in deep relegation trouble. Earlier in the season, they finished fourth in the league phase of this competition. That doesn't mean a great deal when you go to Madrid and find yourself 4-0 down after 17 minutes. They have it all to do to get back into this tie but how much do they care about this game is a big question.
Atletico Madrid will kick themselves if they fail to reach the quarter-finals. The winners of this tie will take on either Newcastle United or Barcelona in the last eight with the Spaniards 1-1 after the away first leg. It's looking like an all-Spanish tie in the quarter-finals with the Mattress Makers from Madrid being the strong favorites to hold on to their lead.
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Tottenham v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.42 | 3.8 | 2.85 |
|
|
2.43 | 3.76 | 2.66 |
|
|
2.4 | 3.86 | 2.65 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.75 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.34 | 3.8 | 2.76 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Tottenham and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/03/2026 between Tottenham and Atletico Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 22.92% for a win of Tottenham against Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.5 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid is 21.59% with odds of 4.1 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 55.49% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham with odds of 2.85 at Stake.
Tottenham - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Tottenham Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 55.49% | 2.85 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.24% | 1.88 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 60.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Atletico Madrid/Atletico Madrid | 30.02% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid Form
Tottenham and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
5 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
3 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
5 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
31 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
Tottenham - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
The away point at Anfield ended a run of six straight defeats but they are still only 16th in the Premier League. Their last win was in this competition on January 26 when Spurs won 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt. Eight games have been played since then.
Spurs must rediscover their good home form.
Home form in this season's UCL has seen them win all four of their matches and without conceding a goal. The Lilywhites are not in that kind of form at present, especially in terms of keeping clean sheets with none in their last eight matches.
Their last six games have all seen both teams score. Only one of their last nine home fixtures has been won and in all but one of those matches, both teams have scored a goal.
Atletico Madrid beat Getafe at home on Saturday and are third in La Liga. That was their fourth straight league victory and six of their last seven matches have been won with the only loss to Barcelona.
In the Champions League this season, the Red-Whites are unbeaten in their last three games. The last two at Galatasaray and Club Brugge ended level. The latter was in the Knockout Play-Off round which they won 7-4 on aggregate. Six of their last seven away games in the Champions League have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
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Tottenham against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
A. Kinsky
B. Austin
DefenderD. Udogie
J. Rowswell
K. Danso
R. Kyerematen
C. Gallagher
L. Bergvall
C. Olusesi
M. De Luis
S. Esquivel Gamez
DefenderM. Pubill
C. Lenglet
J. Gimenez
A. Baena
O. Vargas
J. Diaz
Koke
T. Almada
N. Gonzalez
A. Sorloth
Missing players
B. Davies
MidfielderJ. Maddison
J. Palhinha
R. Bentancur
Y. Bissouma
D. Kulusevski
M. Kudus
ForwardRicharlison
W. Odobert
J. Oblak
MidfielderP. Barrios
R. Martinez Moya
Tottenham & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
What is more important to Tottenham this week? Is it trying to reach the Champions League quarter-finals when three goals down to Atletico Madrid? Or is it saving their best players for the vital home Premier League game against Nottingham Forest at the weekend?
Considering the financial disaster relegation would create, it is clearly the latter and Spurs may well decide to rest some key players for this match rather than risk them getting injured and missing the Forest clash.
No Richarlison for Tottenham on Wednesday.
Spurs already have a lengthy injury list but they will have Micky van de Ven available again. He was serving a suspension at the weekend and didn't play at Anfield. Conor Gallagher was ill at the weekend and it remains to be seen whether he will be playing on Wednesday. Their scorer at the weekend was Richarlison and he is suspended for this second leg.
Xavi Simons and Randal Kolo Muani could well come into the team. We can be pretty sure it will be Vicario between the sticks for Spurs, despite not having a great game at Anfield on Sunday.
Atletico also have some goalkeeping problems and Jan Oblak will not be playing on Wednesday. Juan Musso will be their goalkeeper for this match. Also out are Rodrigo Mendoza and there's a doubt over Pablo Barrios.
It's unlikely that Atletico will be making any other changes from the first leg aside from in goal. They rested several of their top players for the weekend win over Getafe and they will be back on Wednesday.
Most goals and assists
Tottenham
Atletico Madrid
R. Kolo Muani
(4 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(10 Goals)
P. Porro
(2 Assists)
,
C. Romero
(2 Assists)
,
R. Kolo Muani
(2 Assists)
,
W. Odobert
(2 Assists)
J. Alvarez
(4 Assists)
, 
A. Lookman
(4 Assists)
Tottenham - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Both teams have scored in each of the last six Tottenham games.
- Both teams scored in the first leg.
- Eight of the last nine Tottenham home games have seen both teams score.
- Six of the last seven Atletico Madrid UCL away games have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
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Our Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Tottenham managed to get a point on Sunday and put in a much better performance than in recent disasters. They face an almighty task to get back into this tie and will be without several key players for this match.
Atletico Madrid would really kick themselves if they gave away their three-goal lead. Their away performances in the UCL haven't been great this season and both teams have scored on a regular basis. Our main Tottenham v Atletico Madrid prediction is BTTS.
Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid Alternative Predictions
Draw
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Tottenham Atletico Madrid
| Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham wins | 2.55 | 2.5 | -2.0% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 4.1 | +15.5% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 2.5 | 2.85 | +14.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 14.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 35.1% (-4.9%)
Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
