Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP US Open

Prediction published on 05/09/2026, 17:20  by Steve Ashfield | Modified on 05/09/2026 at 20:00 in ATP US Open Predictions

Defending champion and second seed Carlos Alcaraz has been in good form so far in this US Open. The Spaniard has only lost 13 games in his last six sets. Round four sees him look to continue his impressive record against 20th seed Tommy Paul. Our prediction is less than 36.5 games..

In the quarter-finals, the winner will take on either eighth seed Ben Shelton or unseeded Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Carlos Alcaraz won this title last year, his second triumph in this outdoor hard court tournament in the past four years.

Alcaraz has won three of the last four Grand Slams he's played in and was the losing finalist in the other. 

This tournament has seen him drop one set, the opener in his second round match against Jaime Faria.

He leads Paul  6-2 in previous meetings, winning the last five. Paul has gone three matches against Alcaraz without winning a set.

The last two matches were both five-setters and had less than 34.5 games played.

Paul has never made it past this stage in the US Open. He hasn't reached a Grand Slam quarter-final since last year's tournament at Roland Garros. His three matches so far have seen him lose four sets and he had come from 2-1 down to beat Alexander Bublik in the last round.