Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Italian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Italian Open Predictions
Seventh seed Daniiil Medvedev has a difficult opening game in this year's Italian Open. The former champion takes on unseeded Tomas Machac in this outdoor clay court tournament. We could well be in for a thriller and our match prediction is more than 20.5 games played.
The winner will be up against either 28th seed Corentin Moutet or qualifier Pablo Llamas Ruiz next.
What kind of mood will Daniil Medvedev be in? He has openly talked about his dislike for clay courts. This season has seen him win two outdoor hard court titles but against Matteo Berrettini in Monte Carlo, he didn't win a single game.
He improved in Madrid with a run to round four before losing to Flavio Cobolli in three sets.
Two of his last three matches have seen more than 20.5 games played.
Tomas Machac is 39th in the live rankings, 30 places below Medvedev. His best run on clay this year has been a quarter-final in Barcelona and he got to the third round in Monte Carlo. Round one here saw him beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets.
He has played four tie-breaks in his last three matches so a side bet on one here is a good idea.
More than 20.5 games have been played in eight of his last nine matches.
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Tomas Machac v Daniil Medvedev Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.26 | 1.65 |
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2.28 | 1.63 |
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2.3 | 1.62 |
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2.2 | 1.61 |
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|
2.2 | 1.61 |
|
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Who will win the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev match is: more than 20.5 games.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev game on 09/05/2026 of the current ATP Italian Open season:
- Tomas Machac has a 35.7% chance to win against Daniil Medvedev according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 2.3.
- Daniil Medvedev has a 64.3% probability of winning facing Tomas Machac ⭐ with odds of 1.67 at Shangrila.
Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Tomas Machac has a 35.7 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Tomas Machac | 35.7 % |
| Daniil Medvedev | 64.3 % |
Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Form
Tomas Machac and Daniil Medvedev Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
7 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
24 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
22 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
17 Apr 2026 - ATP Barcelona
14 Apr 2026 - ATP Barcelona
9 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
28 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
27 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
25 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
8 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
23 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
21 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
1 Jun 2024 - ATP French Open
Tomas Machac - Daniil Medvedev Key Points
- Machac has played four tie-breaks in his last three matches and at least one in five of his last seven.
- Two of Medvedev's last three matches have seen more than 20.5 games.
- The one previous match on clay between Machac and Medvedev saw both players win a set.
- More than 20.5 games have been played in eight of the last nine matches Machac has played.
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Our Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Daniil Medvedev is a former champion in Rome and that was a massive shock for him. He famously dislikes playing on clay and has few kind words for the surface. He did get to round four in Madrid and won his only previous clay court match against Machac in four sets at Roland Garros.
Tomas Machac has never got past round three in this tournament. He has won five of his nine clay court matches this year and regularly plays tie-breaks. Our Tomas Machac v Daniil Medvedev prediction is more than 20.5 games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
