Stade Toulousain vs Bristol RC Bears Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions Cup
Europe - Champions Cup
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions Cup Predictions
Stade Toulousain continue their attempt to win a record-extending seventh European Rugby Champions Cup. The last 16 sees them hosting Bristol from PREM Rugby. Can the English club spring a surprise? Read our match prediction below.
The winners of this tie will be traveling to either defending champions Bordeaux Begles or Leicester Tigers in the quarter-finals. The last five editions of this competition have been won by French clubs and two were won by Le Stade, most recently in 2024. They are the clear leaders of Top 14 with a 12-point lead. As the form section of this preview will more greatly explain, Toulousain are incredibly strong on home soil.
Bristol finished third in their pool but only lost one match. They are struggling at present and face an almighty task to come away from Toulouse with a win and to progress into the quarter-finals. It would be a major shock if they were to win this match.
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Stade Toulousain v Bristol RC Bears Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.03 | 50 | 15 |
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1.04 | 26 | 12.9 |
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1.03 | 34 | 13 |
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1.03 | 20 | 10 |
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1.03 | 20 | 10 |
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Stade Toulousain vs Bristol RC Bears Form
Stade Toulousain and Bristol RC Bears Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
28 Mar 2026 - Top 14
22 Mar 2026 - Top 14
28 Feb 2026 - Top 14
15 Feb 2026 - Top 14
31 Jan 2026 - Top 14
24 Jan 2026 - Top 14
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
28 Mar 2026 - Top 14
28 Feb 2026 - Top 14
31 Jan 2026 - Top 14
24 Jan 2026 - Top 14
17 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup
28 Dec 2025 - Top 14
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
22 Mar 2026 - Top 14
15 Feb 2026 - Top 14
11 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Top 14
20 Dec 2025 - Top 14
13 Dec 2025 - Champions Cup
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
28 Mar 2026 - PREM Rugby
22 Mar 2026 - PREM Rugby
28 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
14 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
28 Mar 2026 - PREM Rugby
28 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
18 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup
2 Jan 2026 - PREM Rugby
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
22 Mar 2026 - PREM Rugby
14 Feb 2026 - Premiership Rugby Cup
24 Jan 2026 - PREM Rugby
10 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup
20 Dec 2025 - PREM Rugby
6 Dec 2025 - Champions Cup
Stade Toulousain - Bristol RC Bears: Form Analysis
Stade Toulousain are the eighth seeds in the knockout stages of the European Rugby Champions Cup. That's just one place above their opponents. TheRed and Blacks finished second in Pool 1, eight points behind Glasgow Warriors.
Stade Toulousain are so strong at home.
Two of their four pool fixtures were won and both came on home soil against Sharks and Sale Sharks with 133 points scored. They have won their last 16 home matches and are 12 points clear of the rest in Top 14.
Four of their last five home league games have seen them score at least 45 points plus their two games in this competition.
Bristol won three of their four pool matches but still only finished in third place. Their only loss in the pool stage was a 27-15 home loss to defending champions Bordeaux Begles. They won away at Scarlets (by a single point) and at Bulls, the latter being by a 61-49 scoreline.
They have lost their last six league and cup games but played a weakened line-up in some of those matches. Bristol are fifth in PREM Rugby and were beaten at Leicester Tigers in their most recent match.
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Players list
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Stade Toulousain & Bristol RC Bears Squad Analysis
Bristol has a mountain to climb this weekend. PREM Rugby clubs haven't fared too well at Toulouse in recent years. Leicester conceded over 80 points here last season and already this term, the Top 14 club has beaten Sale Sharks 77-7.
Those successes came in pool matches and now we're in the knockout stages where winning is the one important task, not scoring plenty of tries to earn bonus points and boost points difference. Even so, it will be a big shock if Bristol can get close to Stade Toulousain, let alone win.
A high-scoring game looks likely.
Bristol are one of the most entertaining sides around. That was shown in the pool stage with a 61-49 win at Bulls. Players such as Kalaveti Ravouvou and Louis Rees-Zammit will be out to make life as difficult as possible for the home side.
The English club are struggling at present though and this is probably not the time for them to be playing mighty Stade Toulousain, especially in France on their home ground. Bristol need to stay in this game as long as they possibly can but it's going to be difficult to do that.
Stade Toulousain - Bristol RC Bears Key Points
- Stade Toulousain have won their last 16 home fixtures.
- Stade Toulousain scored 133 points in their two home wins in the pool stages.
- Bristol have lost their last six league and cup games.
- Stade Toulousain have won this competition a record six times.
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Our Stade Toulousain vs Bristol RC Bears Prediction
We could be in for a titanic quarter-final between Stade Toulousain and Bordeaux Begles. Both French clubs host sides from PREM Rugby this weekend and are fully expected to progress. Stade Toulousain have turned their home ground into a fortress with 16 straight wins.
Bristol are struggling for results at present and have lost their last six matches. A full strength side hasn't been fielded in all those matches but it's not a run that inspires confidence. Our Stade Toulousain v Bristol Rugby prediction is Stade Toulousain wins on a -19.5 handicap.
Stade Toulousain vs Bristol RC Bears Alternative Predictions
Stade Toulousain wins
Stade Toulousain vs Bristol RC Bears - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
