Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Champions League Predictions
One of the headline fixtures on Matchday 4 in the UEFA Champions League will see Atletico Madrid taking on Bayern Munich at the Metropolitano Stadium on Tuesday night. These sides have scored in every UCL match this season, and we are expecting a few goals in this one, as discussed in our prediction below.
Since losing to Liverpool on MD1, Diego Simeone has turned things around impressively, with his side now unbeaten in their last nine matches in all competitions (W8 D1). However, the sole draw in this period was against Stuttgart on MD3, which sees Los Colchoneros sat in 16th place with four points after their first three games in Europe’s top-tier competition.
The Bavarians played to an entertaining 2-2 draw against Arsenal in this competition last time out and are in 14th place with five points. However, the visitors will have to fare without their manager Vincent Kompany in the dugout again this week, as he continues his recovery after being diagnosed with meningeal irritation a couple of weeks ago. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.80 | 3.95 | 2.20 |
|
|
2.93 | 4.09 | 2.33 |
|
|
2.83 | 3.94 | 2.25 |
|
|
2.83 | 3.94 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.30 | 4.10 | 1.97 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich match is: BTTS & over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/11/2026 between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.05% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Bayern Munich with odds of 3.4 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich is 32.41% with odds of 4.1 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.54% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayern Munich vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.42 at Betsson.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Form
Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +5 |
|
16
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
24 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
20 Oct 2026 - Champions League
17 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
13 Oct 2026 - Champions League
10 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
13 Oct 2026 - Champions League
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
20 Oct 2026 - Champions League
17 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
10 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
9 Sept 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Oct 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2026 - DFB Pokal
25 Oct 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Oct 2026 - Champions League
17 Oct 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Oct 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Oct 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2026 - DFB Pokal
21 Oct 2026 - Champions League
17 Oct 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Sept 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Sept 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Oct 2026 - Champions League
10 Oct 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Sept 2026 - Bundesliga
5 Sept 2026 - Bundesliga
2 Sept 2026 - DFB Pokal
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
25 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Dec 2020 - Champions League
21 Oct 2020 - Champions League
6 Dec 2016 - Champions League
28 Sept 2016 - Champions League
Atletico Madrid - Bayern Munich: Form Analysis
After playing to a 1-1 draw against Stuttgart on MD3 in the Champions League, Atletico Madrid have won back-to-back league games and are now trailing La Liga leaders Barcelona by two points.
Los Colchoneros have been particularly impressive in defence of late, keeping clean sheets in four of their last five games in all competitions. However, they have the eighth-lowest xG per 90 in the UCL this season (1.09).
This week’s hosts are unbeaten at home across all competitions this season, and have won their last four ahead of this fixture, including a convincing 2-0 victory over Man United here on MD2.
Atletico Madrid have never lost a UCL home game to Bayern Munich (W2 D1)!
Meanwhile, Bayern Munich were unable to open up daylight at the top of the Bundesliga standings over the weekend, as they were held to a 2-2 draw by second-placed Borussia Dortmund.
The Bavarians are one of the eight teams still unbeaten in the UCL this season, but their last two games ended level - a disappointing 3-3 draw against Viking before their 2-2 stalemate against Arsenal.
Still, Bayern have one of the most devastating attacks in Europe. They have attempted the second-most shots per 90 in the UCL this season (21) and have the fourth-highest xG per game (2.75).
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Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
S. Esquivel Gamez
J. Musso
DefenderR. Le Normand
D. Martinez Moreno
C. Romero
J. Dominguez
MidfielderO. Vargas
R. Martinez Moya
ForwardA. Ortiz
J. David
A. Sorloth
A. Lookman
S. Ulreich
DefenderJ. Stanisic
H. Ito
J. Tah
S. Boey
N. Brown
MidfielderL. Karl
T. Bischof
ForwardT. Binder
Missing players
M. Neuer
DefenderJ. Kimmich
MidfielderB. Ndiaye
ForwardL. Diaz
Atletico Madrid & Bayern Munich Squad Analysis
While his future at the club remains uncertain, Julián Álvarez remains the key attacking threat for Atlético Madrid. He has attempted eight shots (four on target) and has a goal and an assist in three appearances in the UCL.
Pablo Barrios has created five chances and has one goal in this competition. The 23-year-old midfielder is the creative spark in the team, averaging 14.65 passes into the final third with an 85.7% success rate.
Atleti received a major injury boost over the weekend, with veteran midfielder Koke returning to the squad. USA international Johnny Cardoso is the only confirmed absentee for the home side this week.
Harry Kane is the joint-leading scorer in the Champions League this season with four goals!
The newly-crowned Ballon d’Or winner notched up an assist against Dortmund at the weekend, taking his tally to 18 direct goal contributions in 13 appearances across all competitions this season (10 goals, 8 assists).
The visitors are sweating over the fitness of their two senior goalkeepers. Manuel Neuer missed the Klassiker with a foot injury, while Jonas Urbig suffered a blow to the head in that match and is being monitored for any delayed symptoms of concussion.
Ismael Saibari, Serge Gnabry, and Michael Olise were forced off against BVB. Saibari and Gnabry are now facing lengthy absences, with the former undergoing surgery over the weekend while Olise is listed as a doubt.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Bayern Munich
M. Llorente
(1 Goals)
,
P. Barrios
(1 Goals)
, 
A. Lookman
(1 Goals)
, 
J. Alvarez
(1 Goals)
H. Kane
(4 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(1 Assists)
,
A. Baena
(1 Assists)
,
A. Lookman
(1 Assists)
M. Olise
(1 Assists)
, 
L. Karl
(1 Assists)
,
J. Kimmich
(1 Assists)
, 
K. Laimer
(1 Assists)
,
H. Kane
(1 Assists)
Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich Stats in Champions League
Atletico Madrid - Bayern Munich Key Points
- Two of Atletico Madrid’s Champions League matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- Atletico Madrid have scored two or more goals in five of their six home games in all competitions this season.
- Bayern Munich are averaging 2.75 xG per 90 in the Champions League this season.
- Each of Bayern Munich’s last seven matches in all competitions have ended with both teams scoring.
- Bayern Munich have scored two or more goals in five of their last six away games in all competitions.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Atletico Madrid have been in excellent form since losing to Liverpool on the opening Matchday of the Champions League, now unbeaten in their last nine matches in all competitions, with eight of those ending in victory.
However, while Los Colchoneros have been solid at the back in recent weeks, it’s tough to suggest that any team can keep a clean sheet against Bayern’s attack, which has already scored 10 times in this competition. Therefore, our Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction is BTTS & over 2.5 goals.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Alternative Predictions
Harry Kane to score or assist
Draw
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Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich - FAQs
The Champions League match between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich will be broadcast live on Telefónica (Spain) and DAZN (Germany). UK viewers can tune in to Prime Video UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
