Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain Prediction & Betting Tips - Top 14

France - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
15/02/2026 15:05
Stade Toulousain

Prediction :

 

Stade Toulousain +5.5 handicap

 
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 by Ita Emmanuel | in Rugby Predictions

Stade Francais Paris host Stade Toulousain in this Top 14 Round 17 fixture on Sunday at Stade Jean Bouin. Can the Pink Soldiers overcome the defending champions to return to winning ways after their defeat at Montpellier? Check out our prediction for the match below. 

Stade Francais Paris suffered a second defeat in three matches after losing 44–7 away to Montpellier last time out. That loss also saw them slip to sixth in the standings with 43 points, leaving their hopes of finishing in the playoff places on a knife edge. 

Notably, Paul Gustard's side will be confidant of acing Sunday's contest despite recent setbacks. They are unbeaten at Stade Jean Bouin this season, winning eight of their nine matches at the venue (D1).

Stade Toulousain defeated Aviron Bayonne 31–10 in their last Top 14 match to make it three wins on the bounce across all competitions. They also tightened their grip on the top spot with that victory, going seven points clear of second-placed Section Paloise. 

Notably, Ugo Mola's men have lost three of their last four away matches across all competitions, but by competitive margins. They have won their last four encounters against Stade Francais Paris, including their last trip to Stade Jean Bouin to face them.

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Stade Francais Paris v Stade Toulousain Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Melbet
1.59 21 2.49
Betwinner
1.51 15 2.67
Bet365
1.59 21 2.4
Roobet
1.57 20 2.38
BC Game
1.58 20 2.36
Check all Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain odds

Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain Form

Stade Francais Paris and Stade Toulousain's standings in the Top 14

Teams Pts P W D L GD
1 Stade Toulousain
86 25 18 0 7 +375
3 Stade Francais Paris
78 25 15 1 9 +210

Stade Francais Paris and Stade Toulousain Last Matches

Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris Last matches
L W W L W L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

31 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Montpellier Herault Rugby
44 :  7
Stade Francais Paris

24 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Union Bordeaux Begles
28 :  33
Stade Francais Paris

17 Jan 2026 - Challenge Cup

Ulster Rugby
26 :  19
Stade Francais Paris

10 Jan 2026 - Challenge Cup

Stade Francais Paris
27 :  25
Exeter RC Chiefs

3 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
33 :  15
Castres Olympique

27 Dec 2025 - Top 14

Aviron Bayonne
35 :  34
Stade Francais Paris
W W W D W W
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

10 Jan 2026 - Challenge Cup

Stade Francais Paris
27 :  25
Exeter RC Chiefs

3 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
33 :  15
Castres Olympique

20 Dec 2025 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
20 :  20
Racing 92

6 Dec 2025 - Challenge Cup

Stade Francais Paris
38 :  17
Cardiff Rugby

23 Nov 2025 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
51 :  24
RC Toulonnais

25 Oct 2025 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
35 :  12
Montpellier Herault Rugby
L W L L W L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

31 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Montpellier Herault Rugby
44 :  7
Stade Francais Paris

24 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Union Bordeaux Begles
28 :  33
Stade Francais Paris

17 Jan 2026 - Challenge Cup

Ulster Rugby
26 :  19
Stade Francais Paris

27 Dec 2025 - Top 14

Aviron Bayonne
35 :  34
Stade Francais Paris

13 Dec 2025 - Challenge Cup

Cheetahs
22 :  45
Stade Francais Paris

29 Nov 2025 - Top 14

Clermont
36 :  32
Stade Francais Paris
Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain Last matches
W L L W W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

31 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
31 :  10
Aviron Bayonne

24 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
59 :  22
Section Paloise

17 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup

Stade Toulousain
77 :  7
Sale Sharks

11 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup

Saracens FC
20 :  14
Stade Toulousain

3 Jan 2026 - Top 14

USA Perpignan
30 :  27
Stade Toulousain

28 Dec 2025 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
60 :  14
Stade Rochelais
W W W W W W
Wins

6/6 (100%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

31 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
31 :  10
Aviron Bayonne

24 Jan 2026 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
59 :  22
Section Paloise

17 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup

Stade Toulousain
77 :  7
Sale Sharks

28 Dec 2025 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
60 :  14
Stade Rochelais

7 Dec 2025 - Champions Cup

Stade Toulousain
56 :  19
Hollywoodbets Sharks

29 Nov 2025 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
48 :  24
Racing 92
L W L W L L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

11 Jan 2026 - Champions Cup

Saracens FC
20 :  14
Stade Toulousain

3 Jan 2026 - Top 14

USA Perpignan
30 :  27
Stade Toulousain

20 Dec 2025 - Top 14

Lyon Ou
19 :  41
Stade Toulousain

13 Dec 2025 - Champions Cup

Glasgow Warriors
28 :  21
Stade Toulousain

22 Nov 2025 - Top 14

US Montalbanaise
7 :  49
Stade Toulousain

18 Oct 2025 - Top 14

Section Paloise
30 :  26
Stade Toulousain

Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Stade Francais Paris

33 %

Draw

0 %

Stade Toulousain

67 %

1 Nov 2025 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
29 :  17
Stade Francais Paris

20 Apr 2025 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
21 :  27
Stade Toulousain

29 Dec 2024 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
38 :  23
Stade Francais Paris

12 May 2024 - Top 14

Stade Toulousain
49 :  18
Stade Francais Paris

3 Dec 2023 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
27 :  12
Stade Toulousain

22 Apr 2023 - Top 14

Stade Francais Paris
19 :  10
Stade Toulousain

Players list

Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris
L. Barre P. Azagoh T. Vili L. Carbonel P. Dakuwaqa M. Alo-Emile R. Briatte J. Marchant P. Gabrillagues P. Alo-Emile Y. Tanga T. Halaifonua J. Ward A. Abril Garcia T. Kerr-Barlow
Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain
V. Delpy S. Chocobares P. Graou T. lacombre E. Elías M. Castro-Ferreira C. Verge M. Lebel C. Baille T. Thomas B. Kinghorn J. Willis D. Ainuu P. Barassi A. Roumat

Substitutes

Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris
M. Hirigoyen L. Peyresblanques T. Paiva G. Melikidze P. Abadie B. Pesenti L. Foursans-Bourdette C. Laloi
Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain
G. Cramont D. Delibes J. Brennan P. Mallez R. N'tamack N. Saito L. Banos B. Bertrand

Stade Francais Paris - Stade Toulousain Key Points

  1. Stade Francais Paris have lost two of their last three matches across all competitions.
  2. Stade Francais Paris are unbeaten in their nine matches at Stade Jean Bouin this season, winning eight.
  3. Stade Toulousain have won their last three matches across all competitions.
  4. Stade Toulousain have won their last four matches against Stade Francais Paris.
  5. Stade Toulousain have kept their last three losses on the road within competitive margins.
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Our Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain Prediction

We expect a close contest on Sunday. Stade Francais Paris haven't tasted defeat at home this season, but their poor recent run is worth noting. Additionally, they have lost each of their last four encounters with Stade Toulousain, including their most recent home fixture against the league leaders. 

While Stade Toulousain haven't impressed on the road lately, they have been competitive, keeping losses within respectable margins. We are tipping them for outright victory or to keep it within a tight margin. Our Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain prediction is Stade Toulousain +5.5 handicap.

Prediction :

 

Stade Toulousain +5.5 handicap

 
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Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain Prediction