Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Santiago Open
ATP - ATP Santiago Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Third seed Sebastian Baez and seventh seed Luciano Darderi will face off in the semi-final at the Chile Open. This will mark the ninth meeting between the two players, and the winner meets Yannick Hanfmann or Francisco Cerundolo in the final. Read on for our prediction of the match.
These two have already met twice in 2026. Baez will be keen on stopping Darderi’s dominance, with the Italian having won all their last three duels. The Argentine will feel capable of edging this as he prepares for his third semi-final of the season.
Last time out, he beat Alejandro Tabilo in straight sets, and he is eyeing a fourth final here. Now 53rd in the live rank, Baez is seeking a second Santiago title.
Darderi was a losing finalist in Buenos Aires and will be targeting a second final of the season. He has registered marked improvement at Santiago, having only reached the quarter-final in his earlier two appearances.
The Italian, a four-time tour champion, has dominated recent meetings with Baez, winning each of the last three. The most recent was in his run to the Buenos Aires final.
Ahead of this encounter, Darderi overcame Andrew Pellegrino in three sets to push his record to 9-4 for the season. He is now 21st in the live rankings.
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Sebastian Baez v Luciano Darderi Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2.36 | 1.59 |
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2.36 | 1.59 |
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2.38 | 1.57 |
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2.34 | 1.54 |
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2.34 | 1.54 |
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Who will win the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi match is: exact score: 2-1.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi game on 28/02/2026 of the current ATP Santiago Open season:
- Sebastian Baez has a 43.72% chance to win against Luciano Darderi according to Shangrila ⭐ with the odds of 2.4.
- Luciano Darderi has a 56.28% probability of winning facing Sebastian Baez ⭐ with odds of 1.59 at Melbet.
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Sebastian Baez has a 43.72 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | 43.72 % |
| Luciano Darderi | 56.28 % |
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Form
Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
27 Feb 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
26 Feb 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
17 Feb 2026 - ATP Rio Open
14 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
13 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
12 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
27 Feb 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
25 Feb 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
17 Feb 2026 - ATP Rio Open
15 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
14 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
13 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
14 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jul 2025 - ATP Bastad Open
26 Aug 2024 - ATP US Open
19 Jul 2024 - ATP Hamburg Open
15 Feb 2024 - ATP Buenos Aires
Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi Key Points
- Baez has won 12 times in his 16 matches this season.
- Half of these players’ eight matches saw both win at least a set.
- Darderi has dropped at least a set in each of his last four matches.
- Baez has an 18-4 record at the Santiago Open.
- Darderi has a 9-4 record at the Chile Open.
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Our Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction
For the third time this season, Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi are set to meet. This match has been branded a final before the final, and it isn’t hard to see why. The two are meeting for the ninth time, with their earlier eight having produced a 4-4 draw.
While Darderi has dominated the recent meetings, Baez have the edge in his Santiago Open experience. The Argentine is also playing in his third semi-final and has had a better run this season. Our prediction for Sebastian Baez v Luciano Darderi is for the exact score: 2-1.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Sebastian Baez vs. Luciano Darderi game!
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It does not matter whether you bet on Sebastian Baez or Luciano Darderi, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
