Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Italian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Italian Open Predictions
Alexander Bublik is seeded ninth for the Italian Open in Rome. He begins his campaign in this outdoor clay court tournament with a second round match against unseeded Sebastian Baez. Judged on current form our match prediction does not see a seeding upset taking place.
In round three, the winner will be up against either 19th seed Learner Tien or unseeded Damir Dzumhur.
Bublik is in need of a win as he prepares for Roland Garros where he was a quarter-finalist last year. Earlier in 2026, the world number 11 made it to the quarter-finals in Monte Carlo (losing to Carlos Alcaraz) but has lost three matches since then, most recently to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid.
Last year saw him win two ATP Tour clay court tournaments
Sebastian Baez showed good form on clay during the South American swing. He made it to the semi-finals in both Buenos Aires and Santiago. In Europe though, it hasn't gone so well with only two wins in six matches.
Baez (ranked 65th) had lost three in a row before beating Jenson Brooksby in straight sets in round one of this tournament. He trails Bublik 1-0 in previous meetings, losing to him on a hard court in Miami last year.
We tip Bublik to get the win.
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Sebastian Baez v Alexander Bublik Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2.17 | 1.69 |
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2.21 | 1.67 |
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2.2 | 1.67 |
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2.22 | 1.6 |
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2.22 | 1.6 |
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Who will win the Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik match is: Alexander Bublik wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik game on 08/05/2026 of the current ATP Italian Open season:
- Sebastian Baez has a 38.85% chance to win against Alexander Bublik according to Shangrila ⭐ with the odds of 2.3.
- Alexander Bublik has a 61.15% probability of winning facing Sebastian Baez ⭐ with odds of 1.69 at Melbet.
Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Sebastian Baez has a 38.85 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | 38.85 % |
| Alexander Bublik | 61.15 % |
Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Form
Sebastian Baez and Alexander Bublik Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
6 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
23 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
14 Apr 2026 - ATP Barcelona
7 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
6 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
3 Apr 2026 - ATP BCR Open Romania
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
25 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
14 Apr 2026 - ATP Munich Open
10 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
9 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
7 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
20 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
19 Mar 2025 - ATP Miami
Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik Key Points
- Bublik is 54 places above Baez in the last ranking list.
- Baez has lost three of his last four matches.
- Bublik won two ATP Tour clay court titles last year and reached the Roland Garros quarter-finals
- Baez has failed to get past round two in European clay court tournaments this year.
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Our Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
It's been a strange year for Sebastian Baez with some good results on hard courts. Back on his favored clay, he began well in South America but has been inconsistent with three first round losses and one win in his last four played on clay.
Alexander Bublik began his clay court season with a quarter-final in Monte Carlo. He's gone off the boil since then but has had some difficult draws, including a loss to Carlos Alcaraz. Our Sebastian Baez v Alexander Bublik prediction is Alexander Bublik wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
