Scotland vs Tonga Prediction & Betting Tips - Test Matches
International - Test Matches
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Rugby Predictions
Murrayfield will be lit on Sunday as Scotland square off with Tonga in this International Test. The Thistles, sitting 10 places above Tonga in the World Rugby rankings, will look to end their November Internationals on a winning note after recent setbacks. Follow through as we dive into further detail and our prediction.
Scotland's November Internationals has gone south after an impressive shutdown victory over USA in the first match. Sunday's cracker offer Gregor Townsend's charges a chance to turn things around and end their 2025 Autumn Nations Series on a high. Despite their recent drop-off, they have retained their bite against lower-ranked teams and will look to build on that impressive record.
Tonga return to action for the first time after beating Canada to the third-place finish in the Pacific Nations Cup in September. This is a big opportunity for the Sea Eagles to take on a top-tier opposition away from home and prove their mettle. Historically, they have clashed with the Scottish side five times, suffering heavy defeats in the most recent three meetings. Can they pull an upset in Sunday's clash? Let's get into the details!
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Scotland v Tonga Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.01 | 16.5 | 33 |
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1 | 37 | 37 |
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1 | 45 | 45 |
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1 | 45 | 45 |
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1 | 37 | 37 |
|
Scotland vs Tonga Form
Scotland and Tonga Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
16 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
18 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
11 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
16 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
9 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
18 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
11 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
27 Jul 2024 - Test Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
20 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
14 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
29 Aug 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
22 Aug 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
8 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
1 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
3/4 (75%)
0/4 (0%)
1/4 (25%)
20 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
14 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
22 Aug 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
8 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
29 Aug 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
1 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
24 Sept 2023 - Rugby World Cup
16 Sept 2023 - Rugby World Cup
29 Jul 2023 - Test Matches
21 Jul 2023 - Test Matches
Scotland vs Tonga Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
24 Sept 2023 - Rugby World Cup
Scotland - Tonga: Form Analysis
After their disappointing Six Nations campaign, Scotland have been largely inconsistent. They have lost three of their five Tests since then. This includes back-to-back defeats to World No. 2 New Zealand (25-7) and sixth-ranked Argentina (33-24) in their last Test.
However, they have remained formidable opposition against Tier 2 teams, winning 13 of their last 14 encounters since 2022. This includes blowout victories in their last two Tests against USA and Samoa. Moreover, they hold a solid 3-0-1 record against Tonga in their last four match-ups. This includes consecutive victories in their last three encounters, all of which by wide margins.
Tonga have not won an away Test since their victory over Spain in 2022
Tonga had a rewarding Pacific Nations Cup campaign, but have struggled for results overall. They have lost five of their last seven matches and nine of their last 12. Notably, Tevita Tuʻifua’s side haven't been lucky in their road games. They head into Saturday's clash without a win in their last seven away matches (excluding World Cup games), all of which ended with defeats, mostly by heavy margins.
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Players list
Substitutes
Scotland & Tonga Squad Analysis
Prolific playmaker Finn Russell will headline Scotland's offense in Saturday's clash. Russell challenged injury scares against New Zealand and returned with a banging performance against Argentina, converting all set-pieces. He has racked up an impressive 436 points in his 87 caps with Scotland.
Finn Russell will make his 88th appearance for Scotland against Tonga
Gregor Townsend will also rely on the attacking prowess of Ewan Ashman to boost the team's attack. Ewan stood out with prolific performances despite defeat for the Thistles in their last two tests, scoring four tries. Rory Darge has been key to the team's back-row with his physicality, energy, and defensive work rate and is available to lead Townsend's defense lineup against Tonga.
Ben Tameifuna, who has won 30 caps with Tonga, and has tallied 10 points, will return to captain the team on Saturday. Tameifuna's powerful carries and set-piece strength could prove resourceful for Tevita Tuʻifua's side.
Patrick Pellegrini is expected at the No. 10 role while Harison Mataele makes the forward pack, with Fine Inisi bringing his brilliant finishing skills to the wing, while Siosiua Moala leads the backline with his grit and defensive strength.
Scotland - Tonga Key Points
- Scotland have won 13 of their 14 Tests against Tier 2 nations, mostly by wide margins.
- Scotland have won their last two Tests against Tier 2 nations by 29 points or more.
- Scotland have won their last two matches against Tonga by huge margins.
- Tonga have lost five of their last seven Tests by double-digits.
- Tonga have lost their last seven away Tests, mostly by wide margins.
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Our Scotland vs Tonga Prediction
Scotland will look to salvage their pride and wrap up their end-of-year internationals on a strong note after back-to-back defeats. With the 2026 Six Nations in the offing, Gregor Townsend's men will also target a comprehensive victory against a lowly-rated Tonga to boost their confidence.
They are the overwhelming favorites to secure victory given their impressive record against Tier 2 opposition. Additionally, Tonga have labored lately and lost their last seven away Tests mostly by wide margins. Hence, we are tipping Scotland for a comprehensive victory. Our Scotland vs Tonga prediction is Scotland -42.5 handicap points.
Scotland vs Tonga Alternative Predictions
Under 65.5 total points
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
