PSG vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
PSG will continue with their UEFA Champions League title defence welcoming Chelsea to Parc des Princes for the first leg of their round of 16 tie. In a repeat of the ill-tempered Club World Cup final from nine months ago, this is bound to be a spectacle. Read on to find our prediction of the match.
Chelsea will host the return fixture next week, with the winner on aggregate then advancing to the quarter-finals to face Galatasaray or Liverpool. This is the first time in 10 years that these two sides are facing off in the UCL. Paris were on a five-game unbeaten run against their visitors from London before the loss in the CWC final.
The two sides have three Champions League titles between them, Chelsea having won twice. Unlike PSG, who needed a two-legged knockout playoff against Monaco, Chelsea advanced here after finishing sixth. In the league stage. These two have faced off eight times in the UCL, with Chelsea winning two and Paris three.
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PSG v Chelsea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.07 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.02 | 3.66 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.02 | 3.66 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.02 | 3.65 | 3.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between PSG and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the PSG vs Chelsea match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/03/2026 between PSG and Chelsea in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.76% for a win of PSG against Chelsea with odds of 2.09 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PSG vs Chelsea is 18.72% with odds of 3.81 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 43.52% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs PSG with odds of 3.65 at 888Starz.
PSG - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| PSG Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 43.52% | 3.65 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.88% | 1.6 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 54.17% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea | 19.41% | 5 at Bet365 |
PSG vs Chelsea Form
PSG and Chelsea Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
23 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
PSG vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
PSG - Chelsea: Form Analysis
PSG’s preparations for this game were overshadowed by their 3-1 loss to Monaco in Ligue 1. Les Parisiens, who had eliminated their French rivals from the UCL as they met in the intermediate stage, saw a four-game unbeaten run ended.
There is no time to ponder on that, though, with a crucial game in midweek. PSG won the UCL last season for the first time in their history. But so far this term, they look nowhere close to those heights 12 months ago. Les Rouge-et-Bleu finished outside the top eight in the league phase and look really vulnerable here.
Chelsea have six successive wins in the UCL against French sides.
Chelsea had a better league stage campaign, qualifying directly for the round of 16. Then, under Enzo Maresca, the Blues won five of eight games, scoring 17 goals. Among the teams the London club saw off was tournament favorite Barcelona, whom they hammered 3-0 at home.
Chelsea also had a similar win over PSG when the two teams met for the first time in nine years at last year’s Club World Cup final. Chelsea are coming off a hard-fought 4-2 extra-time victory over Wrexham in the FA Cup. Liam Rosenior’s men have a fourth straight away game here and have won both of their latest.
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PSG against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
L. Chevalier
R. Marin
DefenderI. Zabarnyi
Beraldo
L. Hernandez
L. Kang-in
D. Fernandez
S. Mayulu
G. Ramos
I. Mbaye
K. Kvaratskhelia
R. Sanchez
M. Merrick
DefenderJ. Hato
M. Sarr
B. Badiashile
T. Adarabioyo
J. Acheampong
MidfielderA. Santos
R. Lavia
A. Garnacho
L. Delap
M. Guiu
Missing players
F. Ruiz
ForwardQ. Ndjantou
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
Estevao
PSG & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Ousmane Dembele made his return from a calf injury in the loss to Monaco. It was the only positive for the hosts, as the reigning Ballon d’Or winner is the club’s joint leading scorer. Les Parisiens still have injury woes as Joao Neves remains unavailable, having missed the last two fixtures with an ankle injury.
Long-term absentee Fabian Ruiz is still also not back, and neither are Senny Mayulu and Quentin Ndjantou. Bradley Barcola, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Goncalo Ramos have each scored at least nine times and will help Dembele in the attack. Another attacking option PSG have is Desire Doue, who has netted four of his nine goals in the UCL.
Joao Pedro has 13 goal contributions in Chelsea’s last 12 games.
Chelsea came out of their extra-time FA Cup battle at Wrexham unscathed. There was, however, no sign of Estevao, who has now missed four games with a hamstring injury. This is the same injury that has kept Jamie Gittens out of the squad since early February.
Estevao's absence has been a major setback, as the lad has been a revelation in his debut season. Fellow Brazilian forward Joao Pedro has been doing the heavy lifting upfront for Chelsea and leads the team with 18 goals. The former Brighton man is in good form at the moment and has scored three goals in his last two games.
Most goals and assists
PSG
Chelsea
K. Kvaratskhelia
(10 Goals)
E. Fernandez
(3 Goals)
, 
Estevao
(3 Goals)
,
Joao Pedro
(3 Goals)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(7 Assists)
R. James
(2 Assists)
,
E. Fernandez
(2 Assists)
,
C. Palmer
(2 Assists)
PSG - Chelsea Key Points
- PSG have scored 26 goals in the UCL this term.
- In eight UCL matches, Chelsea have found the net 17 times.
- The last three meetings between these sides had 3+ goals.
- Three of PSG’s last five opponents have netted at least twice against them.
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Our PSG vs Chelsea Prediction
Our prediction for PSG v Chelsea is for more than 2.5 goals. This match sees two of the best-scoring sides in Europe face off. PSG scored the third most goals during the league phase and added five more in two playoff legs to advance to this round.
While rich in attack, the hosts have struggled at the back. Defence has also been a major concern for Chelsea, who, like their hosts, have a strong attacking presence. Combining the two scenarios, we feel a high-scoring outcome looks likely. Bad blood from the most recent showdown between the two will definitely add to the intensity of this matchup.
PSG vs Chelsea Alternative Predictions
Chelsea wins
In our second prediction, we are settling for Chelsea to win. The Blues are coming into this match in better form than their hosts, who suffered a heavy 3-1 loss at home over the weekend. Chelsea also won the most recent meeting with PSG and have this as motivation.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis PSG Chelsea
| PSG vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 1.77 | 2.09 | +18.1% |
| Draw | 3.9 | 3.81 | -2.3% |
| Chelsea wins | 4 | 3.65 | -8.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 25.0% and is now 27.4% (2.4%)
PSG vs Chelsea - FAQs
This match will be played on Wednesday, 11 March.
This match will be played at PSG’s Parc des Princes in Paris, France.
Fans in the UK can watch this game live on TNT Sports 2 and in France through Canal+. Sportytrader will also have minute-by-minute updates of the game and for all other Champions League fixtures this week.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
