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by Daniel Ngulu | in World Cup Predictions
Poland’s loss to Finland continues to haunt them as they go into their World Cup qualifier against the Netherlands on Friday. This Group G match will be the penultimate one for both nations and a pivotal one to their 2026 ambitions. Read on for our prediction.
Though with an inferior goal difference, hosts Poland know this is their best chance at challenging the Netherlands’ lead. The two nations drew 1-1 in the first meeting, and then Poland went on to back-to-back wins, beating Finland and Lithuania.
That took them to within just three points of the Dutch, whom they last beat in 1979. In the 13 matches that have followed, the Netherlands posted eight wins.
In the last five years, these two sides met six times, and the Dutch won four. That will not be the only stat giving them positive vibes coming into this match.
The visitors have also gone unbeaten in the last six matches. Five of those six were won, and they scored three or more goals in four of their last five outings.
The Netherlands were ruthless in their last two outings, beating Finland and the group’s lowest-ranking team - Malta, and scoring eight times. After dishing out two 4-0 wins, next comes their biggest test. A win here and they punch their World Cup ticket.
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The Best Betting Odds for Poland v Netherlands Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 | 3.6 | 1.73 |
|
|
4.5 | 3.5 | 1.73 |
|
|
4.5 | 3.6 | 1.67 |
|
|
4.2 | 3.4 | 1.75 |
|
|
4.5 | 3.45 | 1.81 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Poland and Netherlands?
Our prediction for the Poland vs Netherlands match is: Netherlands to win and BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/11/2025 between Poland and Netherlands in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.99% for a win of Poland against Netherlands with odds of 5 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Poland vs Netherlands is 22.07% with odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.94% chance ⭐ for a win of Netherlands vs Poland with odds of 1.83 at NetBet.
Poland - Netherlands Prediction and Best Odds:
| Poland Netherlands Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands wins | 42.94% | 1.83 at NetBet |
| Under 2.5 | 51.35% | 2.1 at William Hill |
| Both Team To Score | 47.5% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Netherlands/Netherlands | 17.48% | 2.75 at Bet365 |
Poland vs Netherlands Form
Poland and Netherlands's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
|
2
|
17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
Poland and Netherlands Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Poland vs Netherlands Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
22 Sept 2022 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2020 - UEFA Nations League
4 Sept 2020 - UEFA Nations League
Poland against Netherlands Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 1 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Most goals and assists
Poland
Netherlands
R. Lewandowski
(4 Goals)
M. Depay
(8 Goals)
Poland - Netherlands Key Points
- Poland lost three times in their last 10 outings.
- In half of Poland’s last 10 matches, both teams scored.
- In four of the last five meetings, both these teams scored.
- The Netherlands are unbeaten in eight meetings with Poland.
- The Netherlands are unbeaten in six matches, winning five.
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Our Poland vs Netherlands Prediction
The leading team in this group meets the second-placed side. There is a lot to gain or lose in this match. The Netherlands will book their ticket to the World Cup with a win. Poland can put a serious dent to that with a victory at home.
All signs show this will be a hard-fought encounter, but the Dutch have an edge, with a better run in this fixture. We can’t rule out Poland scoring either. Our prediction for Poland v the Netherlands is for the Netherlands to win and BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Poland Netherlands
| Poland vs Netherlands | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland wins | 4.75 | 5 | +5.3% |
| Draw | 4 | 3.6 | -10.0% |
| Netherlands wins | 1.62 | 1.73 | +6.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Netherlands is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 61.7% and is now 57.8% (-3.9%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Poland vs. Netherlands game
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
