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by Devesh Jaganath | in NBA Predictions
We head back to the Paycom Center on Monday night for Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. OKC beat the Pacers in Game 4 to level the series at 2-2. Check out our match prediction below.
When the dust settles on this season’s NBA Finals, many will remember it as a series of comebacks. The Pacers overturned deficits in the fourth quarter in games 1 and 3, while it was the Thunder who surged back in Game 4 to level the series before heading back home for this crucial Game 5.
We have not seen an NBA Finals go to a deciding Game 7 in almost a decade, but this series looks perfectly set up to go the distance. So far, home advantage has counted for very little, but that could all change as we now head into the second half of the series. Let’s get into the key stats at play in this one.
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The Best Betting Odds for Oklahoma City Thunder v Indiana Pacers Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.24 | 4.25 |
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1.24 | 4.2 |
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1.25 | 4 |
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1.22 | 4 |
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1.24 | 4.1 |
|
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Who will win the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Basketball game?
Our prediction for the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers match is: Indiana Pacers +9.5.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers game on 16/06/2025 of the current NBA season:
- Oklahoma City Thunder has a 62.31% chance to pick up the win against Indiana Pacers according to Betway ⭐ with the odds of 1.25.
- There is a probability of 37.69% ⭐ for Indiana Pacers to win vs Oklahoma City Thunder with odds of 5.1 at 22bet.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Form
Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
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Oklahoma City Thunder - Indiana Pacers: Form Analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder entered Game 4 down 2-1 in the series and needing a big performance, and that’s exactly what they got, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 35-point performance.
We’ve mentioned the importance of free throws for OKC a few times already in this series, and we saw this again in the last match when they made 34/38 from the charity stripe, while the Pacers were 25/33.
Notably, the Thunder also got back to playing solid defence, producing three blocks and 12 steals while forcing their opponents into 15 turnovers.
However, OKC only made three of 16 three-point attempts - their worst conversion from range in this series!
Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers got a taste of their own medicine in the last match when they were unable to halt a surging end to the game by the reigning MVP.
Indiana held a seven-point lead entering the final quarter of the match but lost by seven. Still, they have been the underdogs this entire postseason but have managed to pull off results when they mattered most.
The Pacers shot a decent 11 of 36 from three-point range in the last match, but were outdone inside the paint, scoring just 36 points to OKC’s 50, while winning 10 winning 10 fewer rebounds.
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Oklahoma City Thunder & Indiana Pacers Squad Analysis
Gilgeous-Alexander produced another stellar effort in Game 4, almost single-handedly pulling the Oklahoma City Thunder back from defeat in the fourth quarter.
OKC ended Game 4 with a 9-1 run, while SGA scored 15 of their final 16 points of the match!
Jalen Williams also deserved plenty of credit, as he delivered one of his best performances of the postseason, ending with 27 points. However, the standout for us was once again Alex Caruso, who dropped another 20-bomb off the bench.
For the Pacers, Bennedict Mathurin had a woeful end to Game 4, missing three consecutive free throws down the stretch before committing two costly fouls that allowed OKC to take the lead.
On the positive, though, Indiana ended the match with five players in double-digits, and 36 points from their bench. However, they will need more from T.J. McConnell and Mathurin, who scored just eight points apiece, if they are to regain the series lead.
Oklahoma City Thunder - Indiana Pacers Key Points
- The Pacers are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
- The Pacers have won 14 of their last 20 games.
- The Pacers have not lost back-to-back games since March.
- The Pacers have won their last 10 games following a loss.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in their last three NBA Finals games following a win.
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Our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction
The Oklahoma City Thunder needed a big response in the last match, and they got it, with SGA once again proving why he is the best player in the league this season. They are now back at the Paycom Center and massive favourites to take the lead.
However, the betting lines will not affect the Pacers one bit, as they’ve been underdogs for the majority of the postseason, but here they are, two wins away from their first title in 26 years. We fancy the hosts in this one, but feel the visitors will keep it tight. Our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers prediction is Indiana Pacers +9.5.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers - Other Interesting Predictions
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 34.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.8 PPG this series and has scored 34+ points in three of the four games.
If your team in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers game takes a 20-point lead, you win!
If you want to place a bet on the moneyline in the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers game, then bet365 is the place to do it. If the team that you have bet on takes a 20-point lead in the game, then bet365 will pay your bet out as a winner. If your team goes on to lose, you are still a winner.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers match : Frequently asked questions
The NBA Finals Game 5 between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will be played on June 16 at 19:30 (CT).
The NBA Finals Game 5 between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will take place at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma.
The NBA Finals Game 5 between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will be broadcast on ABC in the US, while UK viewers can tune in to TNT Sports and discovery+.
Alternatively, you can keep up to the minute with all the action using our NBA livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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