Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
Burnley's battle against relegation continues with this home game against Newcastle United. The home side are six points from safety but have gone nine games without a win. Newcastle are down in ** and badly need an away win. Read our match prediction below.
The Clarets drew 0-0 at home with Everton on Saturday, a game they really needed to win. As you will read in the form section of this preview, any win would be appreciated at present. Their last victory came five days before Halloween at bottom-of-the-table Wolves. The gap between them and safety is six points so if they could find some form, survival is still a possibility for them.
Newcastle United lost at Manchester United on Boxing Day. They remain in the bottom half of the Premier League and that's mainly because of their frustrating away form that just isn't coming up with the goods. They will see this game as a great chance to earn three points.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Burnley v Newcastle Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.8 | 4.3 | 1.61 |
|
|
5.5 | 4.2 | 1.58 |
|
|
5.7 | 4.2 | 1.56 |
|
|
5.5 | 4.2 | 1.57 |
|
|
5.6 | 4.2 | 1.55 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Newcastle match is: under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/12/2025 between Burnley and Newcastle in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.84% for a win of Burnley against Newcastle with odds of 6 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Newcastle is 19.94% with odds of 4.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 50.22% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Burnley with odds of 1.62 at 888Starz.
Burnley - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Burnley Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 50.22% | 1.62 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.06% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 51.25% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Newcastle/Newcastle | 29.39% | 2.4 at Bet365 |
Burnley vs Newcastle Form
Burnley and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12
|
49 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -2 |
|
19
|
22 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 |
Burnley and Newcastle Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
19 Dec 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
28 Nov 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
20 Nov 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
19 Dec 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
29 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - National League Cup
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2 Dec 2025 - Premier League
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Burnley vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
17 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4 May 2024 - Premier League
30 Sept 2023 - Premier League
22 May 2022 - Premier League
4 Dec 2021 - Premier League
25 Aug 2021 - Carabao Cup
Burnley - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Burnley have gone nine league games without a win. Their last two Premier League fixtures have ended in a draw, away at Bournemouth and last Saturday at home to Everton. Those are the only two points the Clarets have earned in their last nine league matches.
Burnley are struggling to score goals.
Home form has only produced two wins this season. Just seven goals have been scored in their nine home league games. That's the joint lowest total in the Premier League with woeful Wolves.
The goalless draw with Everton at least ended a run of five straight home league defeats. Only in one of their last five at Turf Moor have they managed to score a goal. All but one of their home league fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
Newcastle United have won their last five games against Burnley. They could do with making that six after a run of just one win in five league fixtures. Away form has been a big problem in the Premier League this season with only six points earned from nine games and just seven goals scored.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Burnley against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
M. Weiss
DefenderO. Sonne
B. Humphreys
O. Pimlott
ForwardA. Barnes
J. Anthony
J. Banel
M. Tresor
J. Bruun Larsen
A. Ramsdale
DefenderA. Murphy
L. Shahar
MidfielderS. Alabi
J. Ramsey
J. Willock
J. Murphy
N. Woltemade
S. Neave
Missing players
C. Roberts
J. Worrall
J. Beyer
MidfielderJ. Cullen
H. Mejbri
ForwardZ. Amdouni
D. Burn
ForwardA. Elanga
W. Osula
Burnley & Newcastle Squad Analysis
It's a busy festive schedule so there could well be some squad rotation being used for this Premier League game. Newcastle have a slight advantage over their opponents as their last league game was played on Boxing Day rather than Saturday in Burnley's case.
United really need to get a win from this game at Turf Moor. Far too many points are being dropped by the Magpies when playing away from home. They have several defenders out injured but may still prosper up against a goal-shy Burnley.
Captain Cullen is out injured.
The home side are even more desperate for points with no win since October. The Clarets suffered a major blow at the weekend when their captain Josh Cullen went off with an injury. He is not going to be playing against Newcastle and Burnley will really miss him.
Also absent will be Lyle Foster and Axel Tuanzebe who are both on international duty.
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Newcastle
Z. Flemming
(11 Goals)
B. Guimaraes
(9 Goals)
Q. Hartman
(5 Assists)
B. Guimaraes
(5 Assists)
Burnley - Newcastle Key Points
- Eight of Burnley's nine home league games this season have seen under 2.5 goals scored in them.
- Burnley have only scored seven home league games this season and Newcastle the same number in away fixtures.
- Only two goals have been scored in the last couple of Newcastle away league matches - one an own goal.
- Newcastle have only scored seven games in nine away league matches, four coming in one game at Everton.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction
Both clubs would love to win this Premier League fixture. Burnley have been struggling to avoid an immediate return to the Championship ever all season. A lack of goals is hindering their progress, especially at Turf Moor.
Newcastle continue to be inconsistent with just six league wins this season. They may well need to win a cup to be in European competition next season. Aside from a 4-1 win at Everton, it's been a struggle to score on the road. Our main Burnley v Newcastle prediction is under 2.5 goals.
Burnley vs Newcastle Alternative Predictions
Newcastle wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Burnley Newcastle
| Burnley vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins | 5 | 6 | +20.0% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.4 | +17.3% |
| Newcastle wins | 1.66 | 1.62 | -2.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Newcastle is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 60.2% and is now 61.7% (1.5%)
Burnley vs Newcastle - FAQs
Burnley’s home game against Newcastle United is being played on Tuesday December 30. It’s due to kick-off at 19:30 UK time.
Burnley are playing this game at home. It will be played at Turf Moor where they have won twice in the Premier League this season.
Sky Sports will be broadcasting this game live and a subscription is required. Pay a visit to our Premier League livescore to read live text commentary on the game and helpful continually updated statistics.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
