Zambia vs Morocco Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in AFCON Predictions
Morocco will look to finish top of Group A in the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) with a win over Zambia, who still have a chance to finish in the top three, on matchday three. This match on Monday between the first-placed ‘Atlas Lions’ and the third-placed ‘Copper Bullets’ comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals.
The hosts have four points from two matches (W1, D1) and have a two-point advantage at the top of the group standings. They are guaranteed to finish at least third and can finish top with a win. Any other result will need them to hope for a favourable result elsewhere to finish in the top two. Zambia have two points so far (D2) and are currently second in the list of six third-placed teams.
Zambia can still qualify directly even with a draw but needs favourable results in the Mali vs Comoros fixture. Regardless, it is likely to be a tight encounter with all four teams still in with a chance to finish in the top three places. Can Morocco hold on to their top spot? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Zambia v Morocco Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15 | 6 | 1.21 |
|
|
15.8 | 7.02 | 1.18 |
|
|
15.8 | 7.02 | 1.18 |
|
|
15 | 7 | 1.18 |
|
|
15 | 6 | 1.18 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Zambia and Morocco?
Our prediction for the Zambia vs Morocco match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/12/2025 between Zambia and Morocco in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 0.96% for a win of Zambia against Morocco with odds of 19 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Zambia vs Morocco is 16.2% with odds of 7.02 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 82.85% chance ⭐ for a win of Morocco vs Zambia with odds of 1.22 at Tonybet.
Zambia - Morocco Prediction and Best Odds:
| Zambia Morocco Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco wins | 82.85% | 1.22 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 60.64% | 2.03 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 61.25% | 1.4 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Morocco | 40.95% | 3.6 at Bet365 |
Zambia vs Morocco Form
Zambia and Morocco's standings in the AFCON
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 |
|
4
|
2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
Zambia and Morocco Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
16 Dec 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
6 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
16 Dec 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
14 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
21 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
15 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
11 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
21 Dec 2025 - AFCON
15 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
11 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
2 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
5 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
30 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
Zambia vs Morocco Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
14 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Jun 2024 - World Cup
24 Jan 2024 - AFCON
Zambia - Morocco: Form Analysis
Zambia started their AFCON campaign with a 1-1 draw against Mali, where they needed a stoppage-time goal by Patson Daka to save the day. They followed it up with a 0-0 draw against Comoros to remain unbeaten, but without any shots on target in that fixture, there are enough concerns for Zambia.
The Copper Bullets are without a win across their last six games (D2, L4) and were beaten in nine of their last 12 matches with just one victory to their name in that sequence.
Zambia are without a win in their last 11 AFCON finals matches (D9, L2).
Morocco started their AFCON campaign with a 2-0 win over Comoros and then followed it with a 1-1 draw against Mali. Brahim Diaz scored once each in those games, while Ayoub El Kaabi scored the other.
The Atlas Lions haven’t lost across their last 19 matches in all competitions and friendlies (W17, D2). Extending that sequence is enough for Morocco to secure a fifth successive knockout appearance at the AFCONs.
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Zambia against Morocco Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 3 - 2
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Substitutes
F. Mwansa
T. Mulenga
DefenderG. Mphande
S. Sunzu
F. Musonda
MidfielderO. Tembo
O. Chisala
G. Kalusa
W. Chisala
E. Mandanji
L. Banda
J. Sabobo
K. Musonda
P. Phiri
J. Lahne
M. Harrar
M. El Kajoui
DefenderA. Salah Eddine
A. Ait Boudlal
A. Hakimi
J. El Yamiq
Y. Belammari
MidfielderB. El Khannouss
C. Talbi
O. Targhalline
S. Amrabat
ForwardS. Rahimi
E. Ben Seghir
I. Akhomach
Y. En-Nesyri
Zambia & Morocco Squad Analysis
Zambia appear to have no injury concerns ahead of this match, which gives them a full squad to choose from. They also have just three players on yellow cards ahead of this contest.
The Copper Bullets lined up in a 4-3-3 formation on matchday one before using the 4-2-3-1 system on matchday two. They could use the same formation to stifle Morocco with only Daka lining up as the lone striker.
Daka’s last two international goals came in 1-1 draws in the AFCON finals.
Morocco are still monitoring Achraf Hakimi, who is yet to feature in this tournament. Romain Saiss is another player who’s likely to be out of contention with a muscle injury.
The hosts lined up in their traditional 4-3-3 formation in both their group stage matches so far. Only two changes were made in the starting XI in those fixtures, so Brahim Diaz is likely to start on the right flank, while El Kaabi could fancy starting as the central striker.
Most goals and assists
Zambia
Morocco
P. Daka
(1 Goals)
B. Diaz
(5 Goals)
M. Banda
(1 Assists)
A. Ounahi
(2 Assists)
Zambia - Morocco Key Points
- Five of Morocco’s last seven matches including both in this competition saw under 2.5 goals.
- Morocco kept a clean sheet in ten of their last 13 matches including one on matchday one.
- Seven of Zambia’s last nine matches saw fewer than three goals.
- Zambia failed to score in five of their last nine matches.
- Morocco won their last five matches against Zambia including a 2-0 win in September.
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Our Zambia vs Morocco Prediction
Morocco were held to a 1-1 draw on matchday two but are assured of a third-place finish. The hosts can still qualify as group winners if they avoid defeat, while a win will definitely guarantee that. As for Zambia, they are still in contention for a knockout spot, and a win will guarantee a top-two spot. That would need a miracle, as Zambia won just one of their last 12 matches, losing nine in the process.
This game could be low on goals, looking at Zambia’s poor scoring returns, and hence our Zambia vs Morocco prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Zambia vs Morocco Alternative Predictions
Brahim Diaz to score anytime
Brahim Diaz sprung to life for Morocco in this AFCON tournament, scoring once in both their league games so far. He also has seven goals from the qualifiers, so another goal could be incoming.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Zambia Morocco
| Zambia vs Morocco | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia wins | 14 | 19 | +35.7% |
| Draw | 5.75 | 7.02 | +22.1% |
| Morocco wins | 1.24 | 1.22 | -1.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Morocco is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 80.6% and is now 82.0% (1.3%)
Zambia vs Morocco - FAQs
The Zambia vs Morocco AFCON match will be televised live on Channel 4, E4 and 4seven in the UK. Live streaming can also be viewed on Channel 4, as well as Channel 4 Sport YouTube.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our AFCON Livescore page!
This is the 35th edition of the biennial Africa Cup of Nations tournament organised by the Confederation of African Football (CAF). It will be the second edition hosted by Morocco and will be played between 21 December 2025 and 18 January 2026.
Egypt is the most successful nation in the history of AFCON, winning seven titles. The last of those wins came in 2010, and they have also been runners-up on three occasions, the last coming in 2021.
Cameroon are next in that list with five tournament wins, the last coming in 2017. Ghana won the competition four times, while Nigeria and Ivory Coast have had three wins each.
Ivory Coast are the defending champions from the 2023 edition.
The 24 teams are divided into six groups, with the top two teams of each group advancing to the round of 16. Joining them would be the best four third-placed teams.
Group A: Morocco, Mali, Zambia, Comoros.
Group B: Egypt, South Africa, Angola, Zimbabwe.
Group C: Nigeria, Tunisia, Uganda, Tanzania.
Group D: Senegal, DR Congo, Benin, Botswana.
Group E: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan.
Group F: Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Gabon, Mozambique.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
