Norwich vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Steve Ashfield | in Championship Predictions
It is looking unlikely that the Canaries will be flying back to the Premier League next season. Norwich City are only ninth in the Championship and are home on Tuesday to eighth-placed Derby County. Time for our match prediction below.
The weekend saw Norwich win 4-2 at Bristol City but with three games to play, they are eight points adrift of the final promotion play-off position. The Canaries have won two of their last three league games but lost their last match, losing to local rivals Ipswich Town.
That is the only game they have lost in their last five Championship fixtures. Eight home league games have been won this term but they have never fully recovered from losing their first seven at Carrow Road as they made a terrible start to the season.
Derby County are only three points behind sixth place. A promotion play-off position is still possible but their away form is a big problem at present. Five of their last six away league fixtures have been lost, making it nine defeats this term. They have won nine though so can't be ruled out.
Their last two away league games have both been lost at promoted Coventry City and play-off hopefuls Southampton.
We tip Norwich City to win this match.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Norwich v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.03 | 3.55 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.01 | 3.5 | 3.52 |
|
|
1.99 | 3.52 | 3.56 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Norwich and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Norwich vs Derby County match is: Norwich wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/04/2026 between Norwich and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 58.31% for a win of Norwich against Derby County with odds of 2.2 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Norwich vs Derby County is 14.41% with odds of 3.6 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.29% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Norwich with odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
Norwich - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Norwich Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich wins | 58.31% | 2.2 at Shangrila |
| Under 2.5 | 59.81% | 1.98 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Norwich/Norwich | 22.06% | 3.2 at Bet365 |
Norwich vs Derby County Form
Norwich and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
9
|
65 | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | +7 |
Norwich and Derby County Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Championship
11 Apr 2026 - Championship
6 Apr 2026 - Championship
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
18 Mar 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Apr 2026 - Championship
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Championship
11 Mar 2026 - Championship
25 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Championship
6 Apr 2026 - Championship
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
18 Mar 2026 - Championship
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Championship
11 Apr 2026 - Championship
6 Apr 2026 - Championship
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Championship
6 Apr 2026 - Championship
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Apr 2026 - Championship
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
Norwich vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Oct 2025 - Championship
8 Feb 2025 - Championship
28 Sept 2024 - Championship
10 Apr 2021 - Championship
3 Oct 2018 - Championship
26 Nov 2016 - Championship
Norwich against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
D. Grimshaw
MidfielderA. Ben Slimane
J. Wright
Z. Baumann
S. Field
J. Schlupp
ForwardM. Kvistgaarden
E. Mundle-Smith
J. Vickers
DefenderC. Forsyth
M. Johnston
I. Gordon
D. Batth
MidfielderO. Fraulo
C. Allen
O. Eames
L. Salvesen
Missing players
S. Duffy
H. Amass
L. Mahovo
MidfielderM. Topic
M. Jurasek
G. Forsyth
ForwardA. Crnac
J. Makama
P. Diallo
B. Clark
ForwardP. Agyemang
Most goals and assists
Norwich
Derby County
J. Makama
(10 Goals)
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
K. McLean
(4 Assists)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
Norwich - Derby County Key Points
- Norwich have won three of their last five home league games.
- Derby have lost nine away league games this season.
- Derby have lost five of their last six away league fixtures.
- Norwich have only lost one of their last five league matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Norwich vs Derby County Prediction
It looks very much as Norwich City will be spending another season in the Championship.. They made a poor start to the season and simply left themselves with too much to do to climb into the top six.
They have won eight home league games this season and are home to a Derby County side that has earned only three points from their last five away league games with four defeats. That has greatly damaged their promotion hopes. Our Norwich v Derby County prediction is Norwich wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Norwich Derby County
| Norwich vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich wins | 1.9 | 2.2 | +15.8% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0% |
| Derby County wins | 4.05 | 3.6 | -11.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Norwich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 15.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.6% and is now 45.5% (-7.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
