Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Kennedy Kechula | in FA Cup Predictions
The FA Cup returns, with one of the highlight matches pitting Manchester City away against Newcastle United at St. James’ Park. In the fifth round of the cup, City will be seeking to lift their spirits after a disappointing league outing in midweek. Read on to find our prediction of this match.
Both sides will be switching from their contrasting league performances. Newcastle will be looking to build on a key win as City hope to rise from a costly outing where they dropped points. Hosts Newcastle defeated Aston Villa to advance to this round, while Man City edged out Salford City.
This season alone, this game will be the fifth between these sides. City have won the last three meetings and will feel like the overwhelming favorites to progress to the quarter-finals. While the Magpies have already met two Premier League sides, Manchester City will be getting that taste for the first time.
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Newcastle v Manchester City Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.4 | 3.85 | 1.97 |
|
|
3.07 | 3.48 | 2.27 |
|
|
3.18 | 3.48 | 2.22 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.15 | 3.65 | 2.28 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Manchester City?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Manchester City match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/03/2026 between Newcastle and Manchester City in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.14% for a win of Newcastle against Manchester City with odds of 3.6 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Manchester City is 11.77% with odds of 3.95 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 52.09% chance ⭐ for a win of Manchester City vs Newcastle with odds of 2.28 at Roobet.
Newcastle - Manchester City Prediction and Best Odds:
| Newcastle Manchester City Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 52.09% | 2.28 at Roobet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.74% | 1.9 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 61.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Manchester City/Manchester City | 24.28% | 3.6 at Bet365 |
Newcastle vs Manchester City Form
Newcastle and Manchester City Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
Newcastle vs Manchester City Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
15 Feb 2025 - Premier League
28 Sept 2024 - Premier League
Newcastle - Manchester City: Form Analysis
Newcastle United had a splendid outing in midweek, beating the in-form Manchester United. They scored a stunning late winner to claim a 2-1 win at home. It was a much-needed win, Eddie Howe’s men having lost back-to-back league matches.
Newcastle’s only realistic shot at silverware this season is the FA Cup, though they are still active in the Champions League. Newcastle were eliminated from the League Cup in the semi-finals by City. They lost both legs. Newcastle, who’ve won just two of their last five games at home, have also lost to City the last two times they have met in the FA Cup.
Man City have the chance to eliminate Newcastle from a second cup competition.
Manchester City have a dominant record against Newcastle. Since 2006, the Cityzens have lost just four encounters with the Magpies and have won over 30 times. In their current form, they will arrive confident of another victory as they seek to quickly move past a disappointing midweek result.
Pep Guardiola’s men ceded ground in the EPL title race as they were held to a 2-2 draw by lowly Forest. The Sky Blues are still active in four tournaments and are among the favorites to win the FA Cup. Unbeaten since January, the visitors haven’t failed to make at least the semi-finals of the Cup in each of the last seven seasons.
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Newcastle against Manchester City Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
N. Pope
DefenderT. Livramento
D. Burn
A. Murphy
MidfielderY. Wissa
J. Murphy
ForwardS. Neave
Joelinton
A. Gordon
G. Donnarumma
DefenderR. Ait-Nouri
M. Guehi
R. Dias
MidfielderA. Semenyo
R. Cherki
P. Foden
Rodri
B. Silva
Missing players
F. Schar
E. Krafth
MidfielderB. Guimaraes
L. Miley
J. Gvardiol
MidfielderM. Kovacic
Newcastle & Manchester City Squad Analysis
The Newcastle United injury list has a number of key players. Bruno Guimaraes is one of them, nursing a hamstring injury. He is joined on the sidelines by Fabian Schar, Tino Livramento, Emil Krafth, and Lewis Miley. Nick Woltemade missed the win over United in midweek due to illness and might return on Saturday.
If he misses out, it will be a big blow to the Toon, as he is the main option in attack and has so far scored 10 goals. Anthony Gordon was deployed in a striking role in the absence of Woltemade in midweek and found the net via the spot for his 15th goal of the season. Together with Harvey Barnes, the two Englishmen have scored a combined 27 goals.
Newcastle United’s Jacob Ramsey is suspended for this game.
Manchester City welcomed Erling Haaland back into the rotation after he missed last weekend’s fixture with a knock. Having the Norwegian available is a big boost for City, as he leads all other scorers at the club with 29 goals.
Antoine Semenyo has been a revelation for the visitors since his midseason signing and so far has netted seven goals in 12 outings. The Ghanaian has found the net in each of his last two games and should maintain his position on the flanks. Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol remain long-term absentees and have recently been joined on the sidelines by Nico O’Reilly.
Newcastle - Manchester City Key Points
- City haven’t failed to score in 11 outings thus far.
- Newcastle have found the net in each of their last 11 games.
- Each of Newcastle’s last 12 opponents has managed to score.
- Three of the four meetings between Newcastle and City this term had both teams score.
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Our Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction
Our prediction for Newcastle United v Manchester City is BTTS. This is the fifth meeting of the season between these two teams. Though City have dominated this fixture, Newcastle haven’t rolled over for them and have made things difficult all the way through.
As they are seeking to put an end to City’s dominance over them, we can expect Newcastle to be a strong force behind home support. Seeing both teams, who are strong attacking sides, get on the score sheet is therefore a more likely option.
Newcastle vs Manchester City Alternative Predictions
Manchester City wins
For our second prediction, we have City winning. The visitors have a strong record against their hosts and so far this season, have won three times against them. They are also arriving for this fixture in much better form, as they haven’t lost any of their last 10 games, winning eight times.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Newcastle Manchester City
| Newcastle vs Manchester City | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 3.4 | 3.6 | +5.9% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.95 | +2.6% |
| Manchester City wins | 2 | 2.28 | +14.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 14.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.0% and is now 43.9% (-6.1%)
Newcastle vs Manchester City - FAQs
This match will be played on Saturday, 7 March.
This match will be played at Newcastle’s St. James’ Park Stadium in Newcastle, England.
Fans in the UK will have this game for a live telecast on TNT Sports 1 and TNT Sports Ultimate. Detailed updates of the same, and other FA Cup fixtures this weekend, will be available on Sportytrader.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
