England - Premier League
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by Steve Ashfield in Premier League Predictions
The title may have already been won but there's still plenty of excitement in the Premier League. Newcastle United are fourth in the table and on Sunday are home to fifth-placed Chelsea. Can the Magpies get a vital home win? Read our match prediction below.
United are already guaranteed a place in European competition next season. That's because of their victory in this season's Carabao Cup but it's Champions League football they really want. They are ahead of Chelsea on goals scored with three games remaining and two above Nottingham Forest in sixth place. The midlands club don't play until later on Sunday afternoon so the gap can be widened.
Chelsea secured a place in the Conference League final on Thursday evening. The Blues want a return to the Champions League but they still have to travel to Nottingham Forest on the final day of the season and aren't always the most reliable of clubs on the road.
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The Best Betting Odds for Newcastle v Chelsea Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.75 | 3 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.75 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.37 | 2.62 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.12 | 3.63 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.12 | 3.7 | 3.05 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Chelsea match is: Newcastle to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/05/2025 between Newcastle and Chelsea in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.29% for a win of Newcastle against Chelsea with odds of 2.37 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Chelsea is 13.84% with odds of 3.95 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.86% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Newcastle with odds of 3.2 at Ladbrokes.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Form
Newcastle and Chelsea's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
63 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 21 |
|
5
|
63 | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 21 |
Newcastle and Chelsea Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Premier League
26 Apr 2025 - Premier League
19 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Apr 2025 - Premier League
13 Apr 2025 - Premier League
7 Apr 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Apr 2025 - Premier League
13 Apr 2025 - Premier League
2 Apr 2025 - Premier League
2 Mar 2025 - FA Cup
23 Feb 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Premier League
19 Apr 2025 - Premier League
7 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Mar 2025 - Carabao Cup
10 Mar 2025 - Premier League
26 Feb 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 May 2025 - Conference League
4 May 2025 - Premier League
1 May 2025 - Conference League
26 Apr 2025 - Premier League
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
17 Apr 2025 - Conference League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 May 2025 - Conference League
4 May 2025 - Premier League
26 Apr 2025 - Premier League
17 Apr 2025 - Conference League
13 Apr 2025 - Premier League
3 Apr 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 May 2025 - Conference League
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
10 Apr 2025 - Conference League
6 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Mar 2025 - Premier League
6 Mar 2025 - Conference League
Newcastle vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Oct 2024 - Carabao Cup
27 Oct 2024 - Premier League
11 Mar 2024 - Premier League
19 Dec 2023 - Carabao Cup
25 Nov 2023 - Premier League
28 May 2023 - Premier League
Newcastle - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Newcastle United have won 19 of their Premier League games this season with ten defeats. The Magpies are in good form at present with only one of their last eight league games being lost. That was a 4-1 loss at Aston Villa.
Newcastle are scoring plenty of home league goals.
Their last five home league fixtures have all ended in victory with 18 goals being scored. That makes it 11 wins in the Premier League for them this season on home soil. 38 goals have been scored and only Liverpool and Manchester City have netted more.
After this match, Newcastle travel to Arsenal before a final day home game against Everton. The reverse fixture saw Chelsea win 2-1 last October but Newcastle beat tthem at home in the Carabao Cup.
Chelsea have a difficult run-in with two of their final three games being against sides in the top six. They lead Nottingham Forest by two points and travel to the City Ground in their final fixture.
The Blues have won their last three league fixtures, most recently beating Liverpool 3-1 at home. On the road, Chelsea have won seven away league games but lost six. Their last nine Premier League fixtures have seen them earn only six points.
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Newcastle vs Chelsea last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
J. Lascelles
L. Hall
M. Targett
ForwardJoelinton
W. Fofana
ForwardO. Kellyman
M. Mudryk
M. Guiu
C. Nkunku
Newcastle & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Chelsea may have reached the Conference League final but they can't relax for a minute in the build-up to that match. Every match for the rest of the season is going to be like a cup final as they attempt to get back into the Champions League.
They made plenty of changes for the Conference League win over Djurgardens and will again be rotating their squad for this visit to Newcastle United. As many as eight changes could be made as Chelsea try to earn at least a point from this match.
Chelsea need to score more away league goals.
Of the team that won on Thursday, it looks as if only Malo Gusto, Marc Cucurella and Reece James might retain their places. Chelsea will be looking for more from their midfield and strikers. Just one goal has been scored in their last three away Premier League fixtures.
Cole Palmer hasn't scored an away league goal since January and you have to go all the way back to November since Nicolas Jackson last netted on their travels. With their opponents in good scoring form, Chelsea have to find their scoring boots.
Newcastle are hopeful that Kieran Trippier and Fabian Schar are both fit for this game. They went off in the latter stages of last weekend's 1-1 draw at Brighton. If that is the case, then that will be great news for their defence.
Up front, Isak remains in good form with goals in three of their last four matches. The last two have both come from the penalty spot.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Chelsea
A. Isak
(26 Goals)
C. Palmer
(15 Goals)
J. Murphy
(12 Assists)
E. Fernandez
(12 Assists)
Newcastle and Chelsea Stats in Premier League
Newcastle - Chelsea Key Points
- Newcastle have won their last five home league games with 18 goals scored.
- Newcastle have kept two clean sheets in those five home wins.
- Chelsea have only earned six points from their last nine away league fixtures.
- Newcastle have won their last three home games against Chelsea, including in this season's Carabao Cup.
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Our Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction
Newcastle host Chelsea in a match Nottingham Forest wouldn't mind seeing end in a draw. It's tight for the Champions League qualifying positions even with five available. Newcastle are in a strong position with two of their final three league games being on home soil. They have won their last five home league matches and the last three that have been played against Chelsea, including one this season.
Chelsea have been struggling on the road in recent months and still have to play Forest away. Our main Newcastle v Chelsea prediction is Newcastle to win.
Newcastle vs Chelsea - Other Interesting Predictions
Alexander Isak to score
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Newcastle vs Chelsea match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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