New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Tips - The Rugby Championship
International - The Rugby Championship
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by Ita Emmanuel | in The Rugby Championship Predictions
Table-toppers New Zealand will look to complete a clean sweep of their home Test series against South Africa in this 2025 Rugby Championship round four clash on Saturday. Can the All Blacks tighten their grip at the top and close in on securing the title by edging out the Springboks again? Read on for further details and our prediction.
After finishing as runners-up last season, Scott Robertson's New Zealand have stood tall in the race for the 2025 Rugby Championship title. They are currently top of the standings with 10 points and on track for a record-extending 21st Rugby Championship title. Ranked No. 1 in the world, the Pacific giants have enjoyed a dominant run against Test opponents, including a strong head-to-head record against South Africa.
South Africa are on the verge of losing out on the race for the 2025 Rugby Championship title. The defending and reigning World champions are bottom of the standings with five points. Can they relaunch themselves into the race for the title with a win against Scott Robertson's side? Let's take a closer look on key stats.
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New Zealand v South Africa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.48 | 22 | 2.87 |
|
|
1.44 | 21 | 3.05 |
|
|
1.59 | 18 | 2.5 |
|
|
1.53 | 21 | 2.6 |
|
|
1.57 | 25 | 2.47 |
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New Zealand vs South Africa Form
New Zealand and South Africa's standings in the The Rugby Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +57 |
|
2
|
18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +8 |
New Zealand and South Africa Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
16 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
13 Jul 2024 - Test Matches
28 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
16 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
2 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
16 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
16 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
13 Jul 2024 - Test Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
10 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
28 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
21 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
New Zealand vs South Africa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
60 %
0 %
40 %
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
28 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
25 Aug 2023 - Test Matches
15 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
21 Sept 2019 - Rugby World Cup
New Zealand - South Africa: Form Analysis
Despite a four-point deficit in the second half, New Zealand saw off South Africa 24-17 in a ding-dong first Test fixture in Auckland last weekend. Emoni Narawa and Will Jordan scored tries to inspire the All Blacks to a 14-3 first-half lead, paving the way for the crucial victory.
This result marked Scott Robertson's side's second win in three 2025 Rugby Championship matches and their sixth in seven Tests. They have also won each of their last six matches at home. This includes the bonus-point victory against the Springboks in the first Test in Auckland.
New Zealand boast an impressive 6-0-0 record in their last six home matches.
South Africa suffered a big blow to their hopes of defending the Rugby Championship title following the first-Test loss in Auckland. They dropped to bottom in the standings following the defeat – their second in three 2025 Rugby Championship matches. They have also lost four of their last five encounters with the three-time world champions on New Zealand soil.
Notably, Rassie Erasmus' side could reignite their slender title hopes with a win on Saturday. However, they will face difficulty overturning their poor recent record on the road against New Zealand.
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Players list
Substitutes
New Zealand & South Africa Squad Analysis
New Zealand will lose their attacking threat out wide following Emoni Narawa's injury. The team may also struggle with scrum cohesion due to the absence of experienced hooker Codie Taylor who is out with a head injury.
However, the 20-time Rugby Championship winners still have reasons to be optimistic. Chiefs' sensation Samisoni Taukei'aho, who has 60 points in 34 appearances for the All Blacks, has been lined up to replace Codie Taylor. South Africa could also have to watch out for fast-rising youngster Leroy Carter who will start on the left wing. The 26-year-old is renowned for his energy and attacking threat and has scored 265 points in 116 appearances for the New Zealand Sevens.
Young wing sensation Leroy Carter is set for his debut appearance for New Zealand against South Africa
South Africa will head into this match with a back-row ridden with injuries. Defensive duo Kurt‑Lee Arendse and Edwill van der Merwe are doubts after missing the first Test. Rassie Erasmus will particularly rely on the experience of Willie le Roux to shore up the under-pressure defense.
No. 8 Jasper Wiese is another notable addition to the Springbok's starting lineup. The renowned forward, known for his combative pace and attacking prowess, is back from his four-match ban for headbutting an opponent during Italy Test in July.
New Zealand - South Africa Key Points
- New Zealand have won two of their three Rugby Championship matches.
- New Zealand have won six of their last seven matches.
- New Zealand have won their last six home matches.
- South Africa have lost two of their three Rugby Championship matches.
- South Africa have lost four of their last Test fixtures on New Zealand soil.
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Our New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction
After an impressive six consecutive Test match wins, South Africa's fortunes have taken a sharp turn in the 2025 Rugby Championship. A run of two defeats and one win has seen Rassie Erasmus' side fall down the pecking order in the competition and this match's outcome could seal their fate.
Despite their promising showing in the first Test, they are not likely to pose a significant threat to New Zealand. As highlighted in our key points, the two teams are on opposite ends of the momentum ladder. Hence, our New Zealand vs South Africa prediction is New Zealand win.
New Zealand vs South Africa Alternative Predictions
Over 48.5 total points
Five of New Zealand's last three matches have ended with over 48.5 total points. Three of South Africa's last four matches have also produced more than 48 total points. This match is unlikely to be different – hence our prediction.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
