Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Italian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Italian Open Predictions
It's been a great year so far for 32nd seed Rafael Jodar. He has won 31 matches already in 2026 and 13 of those have come on clay. Round three of the Italian Open sees him take on Matteo Arnaldi and our match prediction is that he will win in straight sets.
Either ninth seed Alexander Bublik or 19th-seeded Learner Tien. will be faced in the last 16.
Jodar has already won the ATP clay court tournament played in Marrakech this year. The semi-finals were also reached in Barcelona and the last eight in Madrid. 13 of his 15 matches played on this surface in 2026 have been won.
This is his debut in Rome and the 19-year-old beat Nuno Borges in straight sets in round two.
Jodar is up to a career-high 31st, 65 places above his opponent.
Matteo Arnaldi is in the third round of the Italian Open for the first time. He has won eight of his 13 clay court matches played this year. Arnaldi won the recent Cagliari Challenger Tour title but this is the first time in 2026 he's made it past round one of an ATP Tour event.
So far in Rome he has beaten Jaume Antoni Munar Clar and Alex de Minaur, both going to three sets.
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Matteo Arnaldi v Rafael Jodar Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
3.5 | 1.3 |
|
|
3.5 | 1.3 |
|
|
3.75 | 1.29 |
|
|
3.45 | 1.27 |
|
|
3.5 | 1.27 |
|
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Who will win the Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar match is: Rafael Jodar wins in straight sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar game on 10/05/2026 of the current ATP Italian Open season:
- Matteo Arnaldi has a 35.83% chance to win against Rafael Jodar according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 3.75.
- Rafael Jodar has a 64.17% probability of winning facing Matteo Arnaldi ⭐ with odds of 1.3 at Melbet.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Matteo Arnaldi has a 35.83 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Matteo Arnaldi | 35.83 % |
| Rafael Jodar | 64.17 % |
Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Form
Matteo Arnaldi and Rafael Jodar Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
8 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
6 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
20 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
11 Apr 2026 - ATP Barcelona
6 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
5 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
8 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
29 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
28 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
26 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
24 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
22 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Matteo Arnaldi - Rafael Jodar Key Points
- Only Jannik Sinner and Arthur Fils have beaten Jodar on clay this year.
- Jodar has won one ATP Tour title on clay this year.
- Eight of the last ten wins for Jodar have been in straight sets.
- Before this week, Arnaldi had not won a main draw match in an ATP Tour tournament.
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Our Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Prediction
Rafael Jodar is 17th in the ATP Live Race and that's 70 places above his opponent. The Spanish teenager has been in great form on clay this year with only Sinner and Fils being able to defeat him.
Matteo Arnaldi finally found some form when he won the Cagliari Challenger Tour title. He hadn't won a main draw match on the ATP Tour since October 2025 before this tournament. Our Matteo Arnaldi v Rafael Jodar prediction is Rafael Jodar wins in straight sets.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
