France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
The fifth day of Ligue 1 concludes with one of the biggest matches of the season! Originally scheduled for last night, the first Classique of the season between Olympique de Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain will now be played on Monday 22 September at 7pm at the Stade Vélodrome.
Olympique Marseille are off to another tough outing as they welcome French champions PSG for a Ligue 1 clash at the Stade Velodrome. In the first Le Classique of the season. While Marseille endure a mixed start to the season, PSG are yet to drop a point, domestically and in Europe. Can Marseille use home advantage to arrest PSG’s surge, or will this be another case of Les Parisiens dominating their hosts? Read on for our prediction of the match.
These two sides are coming off mixed results in the UEFA Champions League. Marseille, away in Spain, took a 2-1 defeat from giants Real Madrid. Here they will want to forget that and seek more inspiration from their win in the last Ligue game, against Lorient.
Meanwhile, PSG had another good night out in Europe as they started their title defence. They eased to a 4-0 win at home against Italian side Atalanta. Nothing seems to be going wrong for the visitors so far.
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The Best Betting Odds for Marseille v PSG Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4 | 3.8 | 1.85 |
|
|
4 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
|
|
4 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
|
|
4 | 3.6 | 1.88 |
|
|
4.2 | 4 | 1.78 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and PSG?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs PSG match is: PSG wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/09/2025 between Marseille and PSG in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.52% for a win of Marseille against PSG with odds of 4.24 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs PSG is 14.8% with odds of 4 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 50.68% chance ⭐ for a win of PSG vs Marseille with odds of 1.88 at Betway.
Marseille - PSG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille PSG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 50.68% | 1.88 at Betway |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.08% | 1.85 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 54.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: PSG/PSG | 19.98% | 2.88 at Bet365 |
Marseille vs PSG Form
Marseille and PSG's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
24 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
|
2
|
22 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Marseille and PSG Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
20 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
14 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
17 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
13 Aug 2025 - UEFA Super Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
14 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
13 Aug 2025 - UEFA Super Cup
9 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
17 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
13 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
23 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
10 May 2025 - Ligue 1
3 May 2025 - Ligue 1
Marseille vs PSG Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
0 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
16 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
27 Oct 2024 - Ligue 1
31 Mar 2024 - Ligue 1
24 Sept 2023 - Ligue 1
26 Feb 2023 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2023 - French Cup
Marseille - PSG: Form Analysis
Marseille, though playing at home, will have the underdogs’ feeling in this game. Their loss at the Bernabeu was disappointing, having taken the lead and then later in the game playing with a man advantage.
Before that they had also suffered losses in Ligue 1 against Rennes and Lyon. Those defeats were inflicted in away matches, and Les Phoceens will be banking a bit on their home form.
At the Stade Velodrome, Marseille are unbeaten in the last six Ligue matches, winning all. The loss to Lens in March remains the only home defeat for Marseille in 14 Ligue 1 matches there.
Marseille are on six straight home wins in Ligue 1 but lost the last three when PSG visited!
Marseille’s home form has not been an issue for PSG, at least not in the latest three meetings. It is not just those three matches; PSG are unbeaten in 12 league matches away to Marseille.
The visitors registered wins with clean sheets in their last three visits to Marseille, scoring eight goals. They are having a superb run so far in the season, which started with winning the UEFA Super Cup.
They have gone on a five-match winning streak, scoring 14 goals, and in four of the five matches, they managed clean sheets. Right ahead of this game, the French giants thumped the Italian side Atalanta 4-0. In their last league game, they had beaten Lens 2-0.
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Marseille against PSG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Missing players
H. Traore
J. Neves
ForwardD. Doue
O. Dembele
B. Barcola
Marseille & PSG Squad Analysis
In a game Marseille would have dreamt of having all their defensive muscle; Nayef Aguerd is listed as doubtful. He suffered a head injury on his debut.
Should he sit out completely, the hosts will miss not just his defensive attributes but also ball handling and aerial threat. The Moroccan has a goal to his name, a long ranger from outside the box, and has a 95.8% pass accuracy.
In attack, Mason Greenwood will be relied upon either as a scorer or provider. The Englishman has five G/A to his name, and combined with returnee Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, they should cause PSG a few problems.
PSG’s long-serving skipper Presnel Kimpembe has finally left for Qatar.
The biggest name Marseille will be happy not to see on the PSG team list is Ousmane Dembele, who has three G/A this season. With a thigh injury, the in-form forward is out till mid-October.
PSG’s loss here is Marseille’s gain, as Dembele was among the scorers in PSG’s wins over Marseille last season. Another scorer last season who is absent for this game is Joao Neves, and the two are joined by French international Desire Doue on the sidelines. Doue sustained a calf injury on national team duty.
Most goals and assists
Marseille
PSG
M. Greenwood
(8 Goals)
N. Mendes
(4 Goals)
,
G. Ramos
(4 Goals)
, 
B. Barcola
(4 Goals)
,
J. Neves
(4 Goals)
P. Aubameyang
(5 Assists)
Vitinha
(5 Assists)
Marseille - PSG Key Points
- Marseille lost three times in their last five matches.
- Marseille lost the last three matches at home to PSG.
- In six league meetings away to Marseille, PSG kept clean sheets.
- PSG are on five straight wins ahead of this match.
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Our Marseille vs PSG Prediction
These two finished in the top slots in Ligue 1 last season, but the gulf between them was so huge. Once again PSG will go into this fixture tipped to win. Marseille have in recent seasons put up so little resistance in this fixture, though PSG have been stronger than most teams around.
The champions have had another good start to the season and are billed as favorites here. While PSG are on five straight wins, Marseille have lost three of their last five. Our prediction for Marseille v PSG is that PSG wins the match.
Marseille vs PSG - Other Interesting Predictions
BTTS-No
Apart from their nine-goal thriller against Toulouse, PSG have been tight defensively. They conceded three in that match, but in their other four or five matches, the visitors kept clean sheets.
Facing Marseille, Les Parisiens kept clean sheets in the last six visits to Stade Velodrome. Marseille also come here having failed to score in two of their last four league matches, and this is likely to recur here. Our second prediction is BTTS-No.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille PSG
| Marseille vs PSG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 4 | 4 | 0% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.8 | +11.8% |
| PSG wins | 1.9 | 1.85 | -2.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PSG is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.6% and is now 54.1% (1.4%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Marseille vs. PSG game!
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Try your luck on this year's Ligue 1! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Marseille vs PSG match : Frequently asked questions
The Marseille v PSG game will be played at the Stade Velodrome in Marseille.
The Marseille v PSG game will be on Monday, 22nt September.
TNT Sports will air the match live. On SportyTrader you can also find the Ligue 1 updates to follow the match.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
