Mansfield Town vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in FA Cup Predictions
The tight terraces of the historic One Call Stadium will be packed to the rafters on Saturday, when League One underdogs Mansfield Town take on Premier League powerhouse Arsenal in the FA Cup. This is a true David-vs-Goliath battle, with 58 places separating the Stags and the Gunners in the English football pyramid. Check out our match prediction below!
Nigel Clough’s men are one of only two teams from the third tier - along with Port Vale - still standing in the oldest national football competition. This marks the Yellows’ fifth appearance in round five and their first since 1975-76 when they reached the quarter-final, their best-ever performance in the competition.
Mikel Arteta’s side are gunning for a quadruple this season, and this is the first time they’ve got to the last 16 of the FA Cup since their title-winning campaign in 2019-20. The North Londoners have won their last 15 matches in this competition against teams from the third tier or below and are unsurprisingly massive favourites in this one. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Mansfield Town v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
22 | 10 | 1.09 |
|
|
16 | 10 | 1.12 |
|
|
15 | 10.5 | 1.12 |
|
|
19 | 15 | 1.06 |
|
|
17 | 9.8 | 1.11 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Mansfield Town and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Mansfield Town vs Arsenal match is: Arsenal wins & BTTS (NO).
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/03/2026 between Mansfield Town and Arsenal in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 8.06% for a win of Mansfield Town against Arsenal with odds of 37 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mansfield Town vs Arsenal is 31.25% with odds of 15 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 60.68% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Mansfield Town with odds of 1.13 at LSbet.
Mansfield Town - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Mansfield Town Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 60.68% | 1.13 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.48% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.38% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal | 30.56% | 1.45 at LSbet |
Mansfield Town vs Arsenal Form
Mansfield Town and Arsenal Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Mar 2026 - League One
28 Feb 2026 - League One
21 Feb 2026 - League One
17 Feb 2026 - League One
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - League One
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - League One
21 Feb 2026 - League One
10 Feb 2026 - League One
7 Feb 2026 - League One
31 Jan 2026 - League One
17 Jan 2026 - League One
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Mar 2026 - League One
17 Feb 2026 - League One
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
27 Jan 2026 - League One
24 Jan 2026 - League One
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
12 Feb 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
12 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
Mansfield Town - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Mansfield Town have kept their FA Cup dream alive thanks to victories over Harrowgate Town (3-2), Accrington Stanley (on penalties), Sheffield United (4-3) and Burnley (2-1) in rounds one through four.
However, the Stags were held to a goalless draw by Rotherham in League One on Tuesday night and are now winless in their last four matches (D2 L2). They failed to score in three of those games.
The hosts have failed to win any of their last five home games (D3 L2) and failed to score in three of those matches. They have also conceded two or more goals in each of their last three at this venue.
This is the first meeting between Mansfield and Arsenal since 1929!
Meanwhile, Arsenal booked their spot in the fifth round of this season’s FA Cup with two routine victories over lower-division opponents Portsmouth (4-1) and Wigan Athletic (4-0) in rounds three and four.
The Gunners enter this match following a crucial 1-0 win away to Brighton in midweek. That result extended their unbeaten run to 10 games and their advantage at the top of the EPL to seven points.
The visitors are also unbeaten in their last 12 away games across all competitions (W9 D3). Their only defeats on the road in all competitions this season were against Aston Villa and Liverpool.
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Mansfield Town against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
H. Lewis
DefenderA. Lewis
E. Hewitt
W. Evans
R. Hendry
N. Moriah-Welsh
ForwardV. Adeboyejo
J. Bowery
O. Irow
T. Setford
DefenderP. Hincapie
J. Dixon
J. Timber
I. Ibrahim
A. Harriman-Annous
ForwardB. Saka
E. Eze
V. Gyokeres
Missing players
M. Odegaard
M. Merino
Mansfield Town & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Lewis Reed scored the winner to complete the comeback against Burnley in the last round, and he is the Stags’ leading goal scorer in this competition with three goals in four games from midfield.
Mansfield were dealt a major blow in their last match against Rotherham, with winger Luke Bolton lasting only 13 minutes before forced off with a calf injury. He is now a major doubt for this weekend.
The hosts will be without their skipper Ryan Sweeney and fellow defender Baily Cargill due to hamstring injuries, which could keep both players sidelined for the remainder of the season.
Wholesale changes are expected from Mikel Arteta for this match!
The Gunners have played eight games in the space of a month leading up to this one, and Arteta is expected use this match to allow some of his first-team regulars a much-needed break.
Gabriel Jesus will likely lead the line, and he has a fantastic record in this competition against sides from outside the EPL, recording 20 goal contributions in 19 appearances against such teams.
Mikel Merino and Ben White are ruled out through injury, while Martin Odegaard and William Saliba are major doubts. Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended, which should see Riccardo Calafiori start at left-back.
Mansfield Town - Arsenal Key Points
- Mansfield have failed to score in three of their last four games.
- Mansfield are winless in their last five home matches.
- Mansfield have failed to score in three of their last five home games.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in five of their last 10 games in all competitions.
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Our Mansfield Town vs Arsenal Prediction
Mansfield have already pulled off a victory against one Premier League team in this competition (Burnley), but it is difficult to make much of a case for them doing the same against an Arsenal side going for a quadruple.
Even with wholesale changes expected, the Gunners have far too much firepower in their ranks, and we expect them to get through to the quarter-final of this season’s FA Cup fairly easily. Our Mansfield Town vs Arsenal prediction is Arsenal wins & BTTS (NO).
Mansfield Town vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Less than 3.5 goals
Mansfield Town have failed to score in three of their last four games and three of their last five at home, while five of Arsenal’s last eight matches have ended with fewer than four goals.
Gabriel Jesus to score anytime
Gabriel Jesus has recorded 20 goal contributions in 19 appearances against teams from the third tier or below in the FA Cup during his time with Manchester City and Arsenal.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Mansfield Town Arsenal
| Mansfield Town vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town wins | 35 | 37 | +5.7% |
| Draw | 9.5 | 15 | +57.9% |
| Arsenal wins | 1.09 | 1.13 | +3.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 91.7% and is now 88.5% (-3.2%)
Mansfield Town vs Arsenal - FAQs
The FA Cup match between Mansfield Town and Arsenal will take place on March 7 at 12:15 GMT.
The FA Cup match between Mansfield Town and Arsenal will be played at the One Call Stadium in Mansfield.
The FA Cup match between Mansfield Town and Arsenal will be broadcast on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our FA Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
