Malta vs Luxembourg Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League

Predictions Odds Live

Europe - UEFA Nations League

Malta
26/03/2026 13:00
Luxembourg

Prediction :

 

Less than 2.5 goals

 
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 by Sridhar Bhamidi | in UEFA Nations League Predictions

Malta are looking for promotion to League C of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League (UNL) when they play Luxembourg in the promotion/relegation play-offs. This first-leg match between the Reds and the ‘Red Lions’ on Thursday comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals. The winner of this two-legged tie will play in League C in the next UNL edition, while the loser will play in League D.

In this edition’s UNL competition, Malta finished second in Group D2 with seven points (W2, D1, L1) and qualified for this play-off tie. Luxembourg finished bottom of Group C3 with no wins (D3, L3) and are facing an uphill battle to save their League C status.

Malta missed out on automatic promotion, but have managed to hold their own in the UNL campaign. Their World Cup qualification wasn’t any different, with the Maltese winning only one of their eight matches in the qualifiers (D2, L5). Their home form is slightly better in recent times, with W1, D1, L2 in the last four competitive matches.

Luxembourg were brushed aside emphatically in their League C campaign, while their World Cup qualification campaign was equally dire, with defeats in all six qualifiers. Five of those have seen them fail to score, and their scoring troubles on the road are equally worrisome for the visitors.

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Malta v Luxembourg Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
4.1 2.2 2.6
Melbet
3.84 2.9 2.24
Betwinner
3.74 2.94 2.24
Bet365
3.7 2.9 2.2
Roobet
3.5 2.86 2.28
Check all Malta vs Luxembourg odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Malta and Luxembourg?

Our prediction for the Malta vs Luxembourg match is: less than 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/03/2026 between Malta and Luxembourg in UEFA Nations League :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.4% for a win of Malta against Luxembourg with odds of 4.1 at Stake.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Malta vs Luxembourg is 23.09% with odds of 2.94 at Betwinner.
  • Our prediction model gives a 30.51% chance ⭐ for a win of Luxembourg vs Malta with odds of 2.6 at Stake.

Malta - Luxembourg Prediction and Best Odds:

Malta Luxembourg Prediction Probability Odds
Malta wins 46.4% 4.1 at Stake
Under 2.5 59.44% 1.7 at Tonybet
Both Team To Score: No 64.58% 1.53 at Bet365
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Malta 24.62% 7.5 at Bet365

Malta vs Luxembourg Form

Malta and Luxembourg Last Matches

Malta
Malta Last matches
D W L L W L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

17 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Malta
2 :  3
Poland

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Finland
0 :  1
Malta

12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
1 :  4
Bosnia Herzegovina

9 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  4
Netherlands

9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
3 :  1
San Marino

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Lithuania
1 :  1
Malta
L D W L L L
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
1 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

17 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Malta
2 :  3
Poland

12 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
1 :  4
Bosnia Herzegovina

9 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  4
Netherlands

9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies

Malta
3 :  1
San Marino

7 Jun 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  0
Lithuania

21 Mar 2025 - World Cup

Malta
0 :  1
Finland
L W L L D W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.5 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Finland
0 :  1
Malta

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Lithuania
1 :  1
Malta

10 Jun 2025 - World Cup

Netherlands
8 :  0
Malta

24 Mar 2025 - World Cup

Poland
2 :  0
Malta

10 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Andorra
0 :  1
Malta

7 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Moldova
2 :  0
Malta
Luxembourg
Luxembourg Last matches
L L L L L L
Wins

0/6 (0%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

6/6 (100%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.17 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

17 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Northern Ireland
1 :  0
Luxembourg

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Luxembourg
0 :  2
Germany

13 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Slovakia
2 :  0
Luxembourg

10 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Germany
4 :  0
Luxembourg

7 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Luxembourg
0 :  1
Slovakia

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Luxembourg
1 :  3
Northern Ireland
W L D L L L
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

14 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Luxembourg
0 :  2
Germany

7 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Luxembourg
0 :  1
Slovakia

4 Sept 2025 - World Cup

Luxembourg
1 :  3
Northern Ireland

10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies

Luxembourg
0 :  0
Ireland

6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies

Luxembourg
0 :  1
Slovenia

22 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies

Luxembourg
1 :  0
Sweden
D D L L L L
Wins

0/6 (0%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.33 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

17 Nov 2025 - World Cup

Northern Ireland
1 :  0
Luxembourg

13 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Slovakia
2 :  0
Luxembourg

10 Oct 2025 - World Cup

Germany
4 :  0
Luxembourg

25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies

Switzerland
3 :  1
Luxembourg

15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Belarus
1 :  1
Luxembourg

12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Bulgaria
0 :  0
Luxembourg

Malta vs Luxembourg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Malta

100 %

Draw

0 %

Luxembourg

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

1
Total goals
0%
BTTS
1
Goals scored
0
Goals conceded
0%
Over 2.5
100%
Under 2.5

9 Jun 2023 - International Friendlies

Luxembourg
0 :  1
Malta

Malta against Luxembourg Lineups: Starting 11

Malta

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
H. Bonello
22
Z. Muscat
5
K. Shaw
13
E. Pepe
3
R. Camenzuli
6
M. Guillaumier
23
A. Satariano
8
P. Mbong
10
T. Teuma
20
Y. Chouaref
11
I. Cardona
9
A. Dardari
10
D. Sinani
15
V. Thill
16
L. Barreiro
19
M. Olesen
8
C. Martins
4
F. Bohnert
13
D. Carlson
2
S. Korac
18
L. Jans
1
A. Moris

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Luxembourg

Substitutes

Malta
Malta
Goalkeeper

M. Debono

R. Al-Tumi

Defender

J. Borg

M. Beerman

A. Overend

G. Mentz

Midfielder

J. Grech

B. Paiber

Y. Yankam

J. Corbalan

Forward

A. Zammit

T. Buhagiar

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
Goalkeeper

L. Fox

T. Pereira

Defender

E. Mahmutovic

E. Dzogovic

M. Pinto

Midfielder

E. Veiga

E. Duarte

J. Cruz

S. Thill

Forward

E. Muratovic

J. Videira Pereira

Y. Borges Sanches

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Malta
CD Huachipato Luxembourg
Top Goalscorer
Malta R. Camenzuli (1 Goals) , 
Malta T. Teuma (1 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Luxembourg G. Rodrigues (2 Goals) ,  Luxembourg V. Thill (2 Goals)
Best assists
Best assists
Luxembourg D. Sinani (2 Assists)

Malta - Luxembourg Key Points

  1. Malta’s four UNL games in this campaign featured under 2.5 goals.
  2. Six of Luxembourg’s last eight matches, including friendlies, produced two or fewer goals.
  3. Luxembourg failed to score in six of their last seven away competitive matches.
  4. The last five matches between these sides featured two or fewer goals, although the last of those was played in 2023.
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Our Malta vs Luxembourg Prediction

Looking back at these two sides in their respective group campaigns of this UNL competition, it’s evident why they are in this playoff. Both Malta and Luxembourg have struggled for goals. Luxembourg have scored only three goals in their six group games, while Malta had just two to their tally in their four games. Luxembourg’s scoring troubles are even more evident on the road, where they had six blanks in their last seven competitive trips.

These stats point to a low-scoring game, and that’s why our Malta vs Luxembourg prediction is less than 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

 

Less than 2.5 goals

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Malta Luxembourg

Malta vs Luxembourg Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Malta wins 3.2 4.1 +28.1%
Draw 3.2 2.94 -8.1%
Luxembourg wins 2.18 2.6 +19.3%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Malta is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 28.1% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 31.3% and is now 24.4% (-6.9%)

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Malta vs Luxembourg Prediction