Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Italian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Italian Open Predictions
For the eighth seed Lorenzo Musetti to reach the Italian Open quarter-finals, he must beat Casper Ruud on clay for the first time. The two clash in round three of this outdoor clay court tournament and our match prediction is swaying towards a win for Ruud.
Either 13th seed Karen Khachanov or qualifier Dino Prizmic will be faced by the winner in the last eight.
Lorenzo Musetti has won six of his nine clay court matches played this year. He reached the quarter-finals in Barcelona and round four in Madrid. Last year saw Musetti reach the semi-finals of this tournament.
He's had wins so far over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Francisco Cerundolo without dropping a set. Musetti has played Ruud twice on this surface and lost both matches without winning a set.
Casper Ruud is 24th in the live rankings, 13 places below his opponent.He has a good record in this tournament, reaching the semi-finals on three previous occasions, most recently in 2023. Ruud has won seven of his nine clay court matches played in 2026.
Beating Musetti will take him into his second clay court quarter-final of the year. He also reached that stage in Madrid. He's had wins in Rome over Zachary Svajda and Jiri Lehecka (who recently beat Musetti) for the loss of only 11 games.
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Lorenzo Musetti v Casper Ruud Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.62 | 1.49 |
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|
2.53 | 1.53 |
|
|
2.63 | 1.5 |
|
|
2.48 | 1.49 |
|
|
2.48 | 1.49 |
|
Who will win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud match is: Casper Ruud wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud game on 12/05/2026 of the current ATP Italian Open season:
- Lorenzo Musetti has a 42.41% chance to win against Casper Ruud according to Tonybet ⭐ with the odds of 2.65.
- Casper Ruud has a 57.59% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Musetti ⭐ with odds of 1.55 at Betway.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Musetti has a 42.41 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | 42.41 % |
| Casper Ruud | 57.59 % |
Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Casper Ruud Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
10 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
8 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
28 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
26 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
24 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
17 Apr 2026 - ATP Barcelona
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
10 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
8 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
30 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
28 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
27 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
25 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
22 Jul 2023 - ATP Bastad Open
3 Nov 2022 - Rolex Paris Masters
Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud Key Points
- Ruud leads Musetti 2-0 in previous meetings on clay.
- Musetti failed to win a set in either of those matches, one being in this tournament seven years ago.
- Ruud has only lost 11 games in his two matches played so far.
- Ruud has reached the semi-finals of this tournament on three previous occasions.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud Prediction
Casper Ruud has only lost two of his nine clay court matches this year. One of those was in Monte Carlo where he retired in his match against Felix Aguer- Aliassime. He has reached a quarter-final since then and has had two comfortable straight sets victories in Rome.
Lorenzo Musetti is yet to beat Ruud on clay or win a set against him. He has also reached one clay court quarter-final this year. This could be a close match and a side bet on three sets could be successful. Our main Lorenzo Musetti v Casper Ruud prediction is Casper Ruud wins.
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It does not matter whether you bet on Lorenzo Musetti or Casper Ruud, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
