Liverpool vs Qarabag FK Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Joseph King | in Champions League Predictions
The league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League comes to a close on Wednesday as fourth-place Liverpool hosts 18th-placed Qarabag FK. Check out our prediction below!
With 15 points, Liverpool are in a good position to finish in the top eight in the standings and thus gain automatic entry into the round of 16. They’ll not only have their eyes on the top eight, but the top four now becomes a very realistic possibility. Finishing in the top four would guarantee the Reds the second leg at home for the round of 16 and quarter-finals. That’s not to say Liverpool are without pressure though, as there still exists a chance they get bumped from the top eight, considering that only three points separate 15th place from fourth place.
Qarabag have been one of the surprise teams in this year’s UCL campaign. This is the Azerbaijani side’s first time competing in Europe’s top-tier club competition since 2017-18 and they’re giving an excellent account of themselves. However, with 10 points, a loss would mean that their fate is out of their hands. A win or a draw, meanwhile, would see them through to the playoff.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Liverpool v Qarabag FK Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.1 | 12 | 23 |
|
|
1.08 | 13 | 20 |
|
|
1.1 | 11.5 | 16 |
|
|
1.1 | 11 | 19 |
|
|
1.09 | 11 | 20 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Liverpool and Qarabag FK?
Our prediction for the Liverpool vs Qarabag FK match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/01/2026 between Liverpool and Qarabag FK in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.01% for a win of Liverpool against Qarabag FK with odds of 1.14 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Liverpool vs Qarabag FK is 25.85% with odds of 13 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.14% chance ⭐ for a win of Qarabag FK vs Liverpool with odds of 24 at Tonybet.
Liverpool - Qarabag FK Prediction and Best Odds:
| Liverpool Qarabag FK Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool wins | 51.01% | 1.14 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | |
| Both Team To Score | 71.43% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Liverpool | 21.57% | 4.7 at LSbet |
Liverpool vs Qarabag FK Form
Liverpool and Qarabag FK's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
18 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +12 |
|
22
|
10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 |
Liverpool and Qarabag FK Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
12 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
12 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Topaz Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
18 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Topaz Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
3 Dec 2025 - Azerbaijan Cup
29 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
18 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
Liverpool - Qarabag FK: Form Analysis
Liverpool saw their 13-match unbeaten run come to an end in heartbreaking fashion away against Bournemouth Saturday. They were able to claw back from a two-goal deficit, only for Amine Adli to sink Slot’s men in the final seconds and condemn them to a 3-2 defeat.
In the Premier League, the hosts are now winless in their last five straight matches (D4, L1) and have slipped down to sixth place following wins for both Chelsea and Manchester United.
Liverpool are one loss away from equaling the total number of league defeats in the last two seasons combined.
Things have been going much better in the UCL, where Liverpool have won five of their seven matches (L2). Their last match in this competition saw them cruise to a 3-0 victory over Marseille in the south of France and put them in pole position to finish in the top eight.
Qarabag suffered a shock 2-0 home loss to relegation-battling Kapaz on Saturday, only the team’s second league defeat of the season. With that being said, a completely different team took to the field than the one that beat Frankfurt 3-2 just a few days prior.
The Azerbaijani champions have now set a club record for most wins in the Champions League proper after beating Benfica away (3-2), FC Kobenhavn at home (2-0) and, most recently, Frankfurt at home (3-2).
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Liverpool against Qarabag FK Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
G. Mamardashvili
F. Woodman
DefenderM. Kerkez
A. Nallo
K. Morrison
T. Nyoni
F. Chiesa
W. Endo
R. Ngumoha
A. Ramazanov
F. Buntic
DefenderT. Bayramov
Daniel
B. Huseynov
S. Mmaee
A. Huseynov
MidfielderN. Akhundzade
C. Kouakou
O. Kashchuk
ForwardM. Qurbanly
E. Addai
Missing players
J. Gomez
C. Bradley
S. Bajcetic
G. Leoni
Liverpool & Qarabag FK Squad Analysis
Doubts still remain as to whether or not Ibrahima Konate will be in the squad following the death of his father. Joe Gomez is also listed as a major doubt to take part after suffering an apparent bone-on-bone knee injury against Bournemouth.
If Konate and Gomez are both not available for selection, Liverpool might be forced to field either Wataru Endo or Andy Robertson at centre back. Missing for the rest of the season in the Liverpool camp is Alexander Isak (leg), Giovanni Leoni (ACL) and Conor Bradley (knee).
Dominik Szoboszlai put in another glittering performance against Bournemouth, assisting Liverpool’s first goal and scoring the second through a venomous free kick. He’s the team’s top contributor in the Champions League in goals (4) and assists (3).
Qarabag fielded a fully-changed 11 in their weekend league fixture.
With Qarabag possessing a chance to qualify past the league/group stage for the first time in team history, manager Gurban Gurbanov is clearly taking no chances. A completely rotated team took to the field in Qarabag’s 2-0 loss on Saturday and fans should expect to see a very similar lineup to the one that played vs Frankfurt for Wednesday’s match.
Camilo Duran, who scored a brace against Frankfurt in the team’s 3-2 win, will lead the line with the Colombian having netted four goals in seven UCL matches this season.
Most goals and assists
Liverpool
Qarabag FK
D. Szoboszlai
(5 Goals)
C. Duran
(5 Goals)
D. Szoboszlai
(4 Assists)
E. Jafarguliyev
(3 Assists)
Liverpool - Qarabag FK Key Points
- Both teams have scored in three of Liverpool’s last four across all competitions.
- Liverpool allowed six clear cut scoring chances in their most recent outing and have conceded five goals in their last four games.
- Both teams have scored in five of Qarabag’s seven UCL matches, including two of three as the visiting side.
- Qarabag have scored 19 goals in their last nine competitive fixtures (2.11 average).
- Qarabag’s UCL league phase matches see an average of 4.00 total goals scored per contest.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Liverpool vs Qarabag FK Prediction
Even if Ibrahima Konate is back and available, it’s no guarantee that Liverpool will keep a clean sheet with the way their defense has been playing on the whole. If he’s not ready, the Reds will be left bare at the back, something that Qarabag could be able to exploit.
The visitors have shown the ability to get results against superior teams. They beat Benfica away from home, drew with Chelsea at home and beat Frankfurt at home, scoring a combined eight goals in those matches. Our Liverpool vs Qarabag prediction: BTTS.
Liverpool vs Qarabag FK Alternative Predictions
Hugo Ekitike anytime goalscorer
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Liverpool Qarabag FK
| Liverpool vs Qarabag FK | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool wins | 1.22 | 1.14 | -6.6% |
| Draw | 6.78 | 13 | +91.7% |
| Qarabag FK wins | 20 | 24 | +20.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Liverpool is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 82.0% and is now 87.7% (5.8%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
