Leeds vs Norwich Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in FA Cup Predictions
The final curtain on Sunday in the fifth round of the FA Cup will come down at Elland Road, where Leeds United will be playing host to Norwich City. The Whites are 15th in the Premier League standings, while the Canaries are in 17th place in the EFL Championship this season. Check out our match prediction below!
Leeds United are in the midst of a heated relegation battle in the EPL this season, but their focus now shifts to cup competition, where they are looking to reach the quarter-final of the FA Cup for the first time since 2002-03. The Peaocks have a good record against teams from lower divisions in this competition, having progressed in each of their last six ties against such sides.
Norwich have never won the oldest cup competition, and last got to the quarter-final of the FA Cup back in 2019-20. The Yellows have been knocked out of this competition in each of their last 14 ties against Premier League opposition while playing outside the top flight themselves. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Leeds v Norwich Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.47 | 4.6 | 6.2 |
|
|
1.46 | 4.56 | 6.75 |
|
|
1.46 | 4.56 | 6.75 |
|
|
1.45 | 4.1 | 7 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.3 | 6.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leeds and Norwich?
Our prediction for the Leeds vs Norwich match is: less than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 08/03/2026 between Leeds and Norwich in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.88% for a win of Leeds against Norwich with odds of 1.47 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leeds vs Norwich is 17.99% with odds of 4.65 at Shangrila.
- Our prediction model gives a 46.13% chance ⭐ for a win of Norwich vs Leeds with odds of 7 at Bet365.
Leeds - Norwich Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leeds Norwich Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich wins | 46.13% | 7 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 51.25% | 2.28 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 62.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Norwich | 18.93% | 15 at Bet365 |
Leeds vs Norwich Form
Leeds and Norwich Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
25 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
26 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
10 Feb 2026 - Championship
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
Leeds vs Norwich Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Jan 2025 - Championship
1 Oct 2024 - Championship
16 May 2024 - Championship
12 May 2024 - Championship
24 Jan 2024 - Championship
21 Oct 2023 - Championship
Leeds - Norwich: Form Analysis
This will be the third time that Leeds United face Championship opposition in this competition, following a 3-1 victory over Derby County and beating Birmingham City on penalties in the last two rounds.
The Whites suffered a 1-0 defeat against fellow newly-promoted Sunderland on Tuesday night. However, barring that loss, their only defeats in their 18 preceding games were against Man City, Arsenal and Newcastle.
The hosts have lost three of their last four home games and failed to score in each of those defeats, but they have won each of their last four matches against this opponent at this venue.
Leeds have kept clean sheets in their last three home games against this opponent!
Meanwhile, Norwich City kicked off their FA Cup campaign with a commanding 5-1 victory over fourth-tier Walsall in round three before ousting West Bromwich Albion 3-1 in the fourth round last month.
The Canaries have been in good form of late. They beat Leicester 2-0 last weekend and have now won eight of their last 10 matches, while scoring two or more goals in each win during this period.
The visitors have also notched up five wins from their last six away games and kept clean sheets in three matches, a massive improvement after going winless in their 10 previous outings.
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Leeds against Norwich Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
K. Darlow
DefenderJ. Bogle
P. Struijk
S. Byram
J. Justin
A. Stach
I. Gruev
F. Buonanotte
ForwardB. Aaronson
V. Kovacevic
H. Darling
J. Medic
J. Stacey
J. Wright
T. Springett
A. Ben Slimane
E. Mundle-Smith
F. Amankwah
Missing players
N. Okafor
S. Duffy
H. Amass
L. Mahovo
MidfielderJ. Schlupp
M. Topic
P. Mattsson
M. Jurasek
G. Forsyth
ForwardA. Crnac
M. Toure
J. Makama
O. Schwartau
Leeds & Norwich Squad Analysis
Daniel Farke opted to allow Lukas Nmecha to lead the line for his side in the last two rounds of this competition, and the German will likely get the nod again this week after Dominic Calvert-Lewin started in the loss to the Black Cats.
Daniel James has made four appearances off the bench since missing two months of action with a hamstring injury, and he is expected to be handed a starting role here, potentially replacing Anton Stach.
The hosts came away from their match against Sunderland with no new injury concerns, meaning only Noah Okafor (hamstring) is expected to miss this weekend’s fixture.
Norwich City’s Anis Ben Slimane has the most assists in the FA Cup so far this season (4)!
The Tunisian international has been in excellent form since returning to the squad in January. He has scored five goals and an assist in his last nine league games to go with his four assists in this competition.
Former Brentford midfielder Paris Maghoma has made a promising start to life in Norwich, scoring two goals in his first five appearances for the club, and he will likely keep his place in the number 10 role.
The visitors have a massive injury list at present, with as many as 13 players currently unavailable, including the likes of Jeffrey Schlupp, Shane Duffy, Pelle Mattsson, Harry Amass, and Mohamed Toure, among others.
Leeds - Norwich Key Points
- Six of Leeds’ last nine games have ended with under 3.5 goals.
- Leeds have failed to score in three of their last four home matches.
- Eight of Norwich’s last 10 games have ended with under 3.5 goals.
- Norwich have kept clean sheets in three of their last four away matches.
- Fewer than four goals were scored in four of the last five games between these sides.
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Our Leeds vs Norwich Prediction
While Leeds are expected to progress from this tie to the quarter-final, they have not been at their best of late, currently winless in their last three games, while failing to score three of their last four at home.
Norwich, meanwhile, are trending upward and have been impressive on the road of late, winning five of their last six away games, while keeping clean sheets in three of their last four outings. Therefore, our Leeds vs Norwich prediction is less than 3.5 goals.
Leeds vs Norwich Alternative Predictions
BTTS (NO)
Leeds have failed to score in three of their last four home matches, while Norwich have kept clean sheets in three of their last four away games. Only one team has scored in four of the last five matches between these sides.
Leeds wins
While Leeds United have lost three of their last four home games, two of those defeats were to Man City and Arsenal. Additionally, the Whites have won each of their last four against this opponent at this venue.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leeds Norwich
| Leeds vs Norwich | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 1.42 | 1.47 | +3.5% |
| Draw | 4.5 | 4.65 | +3.3% |
| Norwich wins | 7.6 | 7 | -7.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Norwich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 7.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 13.2% and is now 14.3% (1.1%)
Leeds vs Norwich - FAQs
The FA Cup match between Leeds and Norwich will take place on March 8 at 16:30 GMT.
The FA Cup match between Leeds and Norwich will be played at Elland Road in Leeds.
The FA Cup match between Leeds and Norwich will be broadcast on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our FA Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
