Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys Prediction & Betting Tips - WTA Australian Open
WTA - WTA Australian Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Ninth seed Madison Keys continues with her Australian Open title defence and faces Karolina Pliskova in the third round. They have met once before, but never at a major. Read on for our prediction for this match.
Karolina Pliskova is having a strong return to Melbourne after missing last year’s event. The Czech former world number one has won both of her matches this week without losing a set.
She defeated former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in the first round and then the unseeded Janice Tjen to secure her place in the third round.
A former semi-finalist at this major and multiple-time quarter-finalist, Pliskova started the season ranked outside the WTA’s top 1000 places but has since shot up a massive 649 places to 408th.
The 33-year-old defeated Keys to be crowned Brisbane champion in 2020.
Madison Keys is having a strong defence of her title. The American, who was crowned champion at a major for the first time in last year’s edition, is yet to lose a set through two rounds.
She defeated Oleksandra Oliynykova in the first round and then compatriot Ashlyn Krueger. Despite five wins and two quarter-final finishes in Adelaide and Brisbane, Keys has had a significant drop in the live ranking.
She has dropped out of the top 10 and is placed 16th in the live ranking.
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Karolina Pliskova v Madison Keys Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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5.65 | 1.14 |
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5.5 | 1.15 |
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5.5 | 1.14 |
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4.8 | 1.14 |
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4.9 | 1.15 |
|
Who will win the Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys match is: exact score: 1-2.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys game on 23/01/2026 of the current WTA Australian Open season:
- Karolina Pliskova has a 46.59% chance to win against Madison Keys according to Tonybet ⭐ with the odds of 5.8.
- Madison Keys has a 53.41% probability of winning facing Karolina Pliskova ⭐ with odds of 1.16 at Tonybet.
Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Karolina Pliskova has a 46.59 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Karolina Pliskova | 46.59 % |
| Madison Keys | 53.41 % |
Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys Form
Karolina Pliskova and Madison Keys Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
21 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
7 Aug 2024 - WTA National Bank Open
6 Aug 2024 - WTA National Bank Open
16 Jun 2024 - WTA Nottingham Open
15 Jun 2024 - WTA Nottingham Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
21 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
14 Jan 2026 - WTA Adelaide
13 Jan 2026 - WTA Adelaide
8 Jan 2026 - WTA Brisbane
8 Jan 2026 - WTA Brisbane
Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
11 Jan 2020 - WTA Brisbane
Karolina Pliskova - Madison Keys Key Points
- A decider was played in the only other meeting between Pliskova and Keys.
- Keys has won nine consecutive matches in Melbourne.
- In seven matches in 2026, Keys has won five times.
- Pliskova and Keys have won a combined 583 matches on hard courts.
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Our Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys Prediction
Our prediction for Karolina Pliskova v Madison Keys is for the exact score: 1-2. Keys is the Australian Open defending champion and hasn’t lost any of her last seven duels at the tournament. She has been in strong form in her title defence, and also to start the season.
Though we fancy her coming out on top in this tie, we feel Pliskova will be her toughest opponent yet. Pliskova is an established tour performer and has had tremendous success in Melbourne over the years. She also won the only other encounter against Keys. Pliskova has, however, not gone up against a player of Keys’ caliber in a long time and is likely to be out of her depth.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
