Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Prediction & Betting Tips - WTA Australian Open
WTA - WTA Australian Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Madison Keys, the ninth seed at the Australian Open, takes on sixth seed Jessica Pegula next as she continues her title defence. They will square off in the fourth round to mark their fourth career meeting and the second at a major. Read on for our prediction of the match.
Jessica Pegula is through to the second week of competition in Melbourne for the first time since 2023. The American had lost in the second and third rounds in her last two appearances at this major.
A three-time quarter-finalist at the Happy Slam, Pegula has blazed her way through this week. Yet to lose a set in three outings, the world number six has lost more than five games a contest.
She defeated Oksana Selekhmeteva in the last round.
Madison Keys was crowned champion for the first time at a Grand Slam in last season’s edition in Melbourne. She has been in fine form in her title defence and has yet to surrender a single set.
Keys, who has won six of seven matches to start 2026, defeated Karolina Pliskova to set up this showdown with Pegula.
Despite her strong form this week, Keys has endured a significant drop in the live rankings and has fallen out of the top 10. She is now ranked 15th. The 30-year-old has won the last two meetings with Pegula.
The most recent victory saw her lift the 2025 Adelaide title.
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Jessica Pegula v Madison Keys Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.61 | 2.31 |
|
|
1.59 | 2.35 |
|
|
1.57 | 2.38 |
|
|
1.56 | 2.28 |
|
|
1.58 | 2.26 |
|
Who will win the Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys match is: more than 2.5 sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys game on 25/01/2026 of the current WTA Australian Open season:
- Jessica Pegula has a 48.53% chance to win against Madison Keys according to Melbet ⭐ with the odds of 1.61.
- Madison Keys has a 51.47% probability of winning facing Jessica Pegula ⭐ with odds of 2.42 at Tonybet.
Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Jessica Pegula has a 48.53 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula | 48.53 % |
| Madison Keys | 51.47 % |
Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Form
Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
23 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
21 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
10 Jan 2026 - WTA Brisbane
9 Jan 2026 - WTA Brisbane
8 Jan 2026 - WTA Brisbane
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
23 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
21 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - WTA Australian Open
14 Jan 2026 - WTA Adelaide
13 Jan 2026 - WTA Adelaide
8 Jan 2026 - WTA Brisbane
Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
11 Jan 2025 - WTA Adelaide
4 Sept 2023 - WTA US Open
Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys Key Points
- A decider was played in the most recent showdown between Keys and Pegula.
- Pegula and Keys have each won against each other on a hard court.
- Keys and Pegula have won a combined 549 matches on hard courts.
- Both Keys and Pegula are multiple tour champions.
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Our Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Prediction
Our prediction for Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys is for more than 2.5 sets. This match sees two players who have started the season in sensational form face off. Pegula and Keys, who have blazed their way through this week, are well known to each other, having faced off three times previously.
Keys has a head-to-head advantage, but Pegula has also won against her compatriot in the past. Given that they are two of the WTA’s top performers with a dominant record on hard courts, there is a strong chance that a third set will be played to separate them here.
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It does not matter whether you bet on Jessica Pegula or Madison Keys, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
