Japan vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - Nations Championship

Prediction published on 02/07/2026, 04:40  by Ita Emmanuel | Modified on 03/07/2026 at 13:15 in Nations Championship Predictions

The Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium in Tokyo will come alive as 12th-ranked Japan host World No.10 Italy in the opening round of the inaugural Nations Championship on Saturday. Having lost five of their last six matches, Japan are clear underdogs here against an Italian side that has won six of its last seven matches against lower-ranked opposition. This is why we support a comfortable win for Italy in our prediction. 

Japan return to action for the first time in eight months and there is much for the Cherry Blossoms to worry about ahead of Saturday's encounter. Lee Seung-sin's penalty goal helped them see off 13th-ranked Georgia 25–23 at the death last time out. 

That result prevented what would have been six straight defeats for the Eddie Jones-led team, leaving them with some measure of confidence ahead of this tournament. Nevertheless, the outlook still looks bleak for the team heading into Saturday's contest following a run of six defeats in their last seven Tests against higher-ranked teams.

Despite managing two points fewer than they did in the previous campaign, Italy finished in their highest position ever (4th) in the 2026 Six Nations, with notable wins against England and Scotland. 

They fell 31–17 to Wales in their final match, but have put together six wins across their last seven meetings with lower-ranked opposition. They have won their previous three matchups with Japan, the most recent two by good margins.