Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Steve Ashfield | in World Cup Predictions
Not since 2014 has Italy qualified for the World Cup finals. The Blues are in the play-off semi-finals again and are home to Northern Ireland on Thursday. The winners will travel to either Wales or Bosnia Herzegovina for a place in the finals. Read our match prediction.
Italy dare not miss out on another World Cup finals. The former world champions could only finish second in Group I, six points behind Norway.. They are in the play-offs for the third successive World Cup and will certainly want to avoid a hat-trick of failures. If they can qualify for the finals, Italy will find themselves in Group B and facing Switzerland, co-hosts Canada and Qatar.
it's 40 years since Northern Ireland last played in the World Cup finals. They did make it to the 2016 Euros but owe their place in these World Cup play-offs to their Nations League form. The Green and White Army could only finish third in Group A behind Germany and Slovakia. That could have meant elimination from the competition but they are still alive thanks to winning their group in the last Nations League. Can they now knock out Italy?
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Italy v Northern Ireland Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.18 | 5.75 | 16.5 |
|
|
1.24 | 5.7 | 14 |
|
|
1.25 | 5.55 | 14 |
|
|
1.25 | 5.75 | 13 |
|
|
1.25 | 5.8 | 13 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Northern Ireland?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Northern Ireland match is: Italy wins and leads at half and full time.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/03/2026 between Italy and Northern Ireland in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 62.08% for a win of Italy against Northern Ireland with odds of 1.28 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Northern Ireland is 13.31% with odds of 6.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 24.61% chance ⭐ for a win of Northern Ireland vs Italy with odds of 16.5 at Stake.
Italy - Northern Ireland Prediction and Best Odds:
| Italy Northern Ireland Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 62.08% | 1.28 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.46% | 1.85 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 54.17% | 2.75 at LSbet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Italy/Italy | 27.52% | 1.73 at Bet365 |
Italy vs Northern Ireland Form
Italy and Northern Ireland Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
21 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Northern Ireland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
15 Nov 2021 - World Cup
25 Mar 2021 - World Cup
Italy - Northern Ireland: Form Analysis
Italy had won six games in a row before being beaten 4-1 at home by Norway last November. 20 goals had been scored in those six victories but losing to the Norwegians condemned italy to the play-offs.
The Blues won their other three home qualifying games against Israel, Estonia and Moldova by an aggregate score of 10-0. Six of their eight group fixtures were won but the two against Norway which were lost with seven goals conceded.
Will Northern Ireland's long wait end?
It was 1986 in Mexico (one of the co-hosts this year) when Northern Ireland last played in the World Cup finals. They won three of their six matches in Group A but lost the others. It wasn't too much of a shock that they failed to finish in the top two with Germany and Slovakia also in the group.
The Green and White Army lost to both of those countries on their travels but did win in Luxembourg. They finished in third, three points behind Slovakia and nine points adrift of group winners Germany.
Northern Ireland have only won one of their last five away matches. You have to go back to 1958 for the last time Northern Ireland beat Italy. Since then, Italy have beaten the Irish side four times with two draws and with no goals conceded. The last match was a goalless draw in Ireland five years ago.
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Italy against Northern Ireland Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1
Substitutes
M. Carnesecchi
A. Meret
DefenderA. Buongiorno
F. Gatti
G. Scalvini
M. Palestra
L. Spinazzola
MidfielderD. Frattesi
N. Pisilli
B. Cristante
ForwardF. Esposito
G. Raspadori
B. Peacock Farrell
C. Hazard
DefenderE. Toal
C. Brown
T. Atcheson
MidfielderP. Smyth
P. Kelly
G. Saville
B. Lyons
ForwardJ. Magennis
C. Marshall
J. Reid
Missing players
C. Bradley
Italy & Northern Ireland Squad Analysis
There will be plenty of nerves for both sets of players ahead of this World Cup play-off semi-final but especially for Italy. Such was the bad reaction of the home fans after they lost to Norway, this game is being played in Bergamo rather than Milan.
Italy have several injury problems ahead of this vital match. There's no Giovanni Di Lorenzo in defence and there are doubts over Gianluca Mancini and Alessandro Bastoni. Riccardo Calafiori had a disappointing day at Wembley with Arsenal on Sunday but is expected to be fit to play here.
Federico Chiesa won't be playing up front but Italy do have some other options that could win them this game. Pio Esposito has scored in three of Italy's last four games. Mateo Retegui hit five goals in their qualifying group and Moise Kean scored four.
Massive task for Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland would have preferred a home game in this semi-final. They aren't at their best on the road with losses against Germany and Slovakia in their group No player scored more than a single goal for them in their group.
Their top goalscorer is Josh Magennis who has scored 12 goals for his country in 86 appearances. It's a massive match for him as he plays for Exeter City who play in League One in England.
Dan Ballard will be absent for this match but George Saville will be back after being suspended for their last game against Luxembourg. Not good news is the absence of defenders Jamal Lewis and Conor Bradley.
Most goals and assists
Italy
Northern Ireland
M. Kean
(12 Goals)
J. Reid
(1 Goals)
,
S. Charles
(1 Goals)
,
J. Devenny
(1 Goals)
,
I. Price
(1 Goals)
,
T. Hume
(1 Goals)
,
J. Donley
(1 Goals)
F. Dimarco
(4 Assists)
,
M. Retegui
(4 Assists)
,
S. Tonali
(4 Assists)
,
N. Barella
(4 Assists)
J. Devenny
(1 Assists)
Italy - Northern Ireland Key Points
- Italy haven't lost to Northern Ireland in 68 years.
- Northern Ireland have only won one of their last five away matches.
- Northern Ireland only finished third in their qualifying group.
- Italy had won six games in a row before losing to Norway.
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Our Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction
There'll be a bit of fear for Italy ahead of this game. It's almost unbelievable that they haven't played in the World Cup finals since 2014, especially as they've won the European title since then. Another failure to qualify is almost unthinkable.
Home advantage will be a major factor for Italy. Aside from the Norway defeat they won their three home group games without conceding. Northern Ireland struggle on the road with one win in their last five. Our main Italy v Northern Ireland prediction is Italy wins and leads at half and full time.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Alternative Predictions
Italy wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Italy Northern Ireland
| Italy vs Northern Ireland | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 1.3 | 1.28 | -1.5% |
| Draw | 5.5 | 6.2 | +12.7% |
| Northern Ireland wins | 10.25 | 16.5 | +61.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Italy is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 76.9% and is now 78.1% (1.2%)
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Italy vs Northern Ireland - FAQs
This match is being played at the Stado Aleti Azzurri d'Italia in Bergamo, Italy. This is the home ground of Atalanta and last staged an international fixture six years ago when Italy drew 1-1 with the Netherlands.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
