Tour de France - Stage 5 Predictions & Betting tips - International

Prediction published on 07/07/2026, 13:34 by Matthew Newman | Modified on 07/07/2026 at 13:39

Stage 5 of the 2026 Tour de France is a pure sprinters stage into Pau, with just a short and sharp Category Three climb which should not be too tough for any of the sprinting contingent. This is for the fast men, and there is no-one faster in the Tour de France peloton this year than Jasper Philipsen.

There were only three proper sprint stages in the tour last year, the first of which went to Jasper Philipsen. He crashed out in an Intermediate sprint on Stage 3 and took no further part. He has 10 stage wins in the tour down the years and looks the man to beat.

Tim Merlier was unlucky on Stage 1 last year, on the wrong side of a peloton split that saw him unable to contest the sprint finish. He made up for it with wins on Stages 3 and 9 when Philipsen was out of the race.

This is the second time that Olav Kooij has ridden the tour, winning stages in the Giro in both 2024 and 2025. A young man with a lot of natural speed, he could be an interesting one to get in the mix.

One last sprinter to discuss is Biniam Girmay. He won the green jersey in 2024, though the best that he accomplished last year was when runner-up to Philipsen on Stage 1. The winner of the intermediate sprint on Tuesday, he could be a danger.

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Tour de France - Stage 5 - International prediction key points

Jasper Philipsen has won 16 Grand Tour stages in his career, including 10 at the Tour de France.
He was on top in Stage 1 last year before getting injured.
Philipsen recently won the yellow jersey at the Belgium Tour.
Prior to that Philipsen won In Flanders Fields so he is enjoying a strong start to his season.

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Our Tour de France - Stage 5 - International prediction

This is the first stage for the pure speed men and to this point, we have very little on which to judge them in a tour that has not been set up to favour them in the early days. Tim Merlier is the favourite and he arrives in excellent form, but there is a suspicion that Jasper Philipsen has just been working his way into form for this event and at a bigger price, our Tour de France Stage 5 prediction is Jasper Philipsen wins.

Prediction :

Jasper Philipsen wins

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.