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Tour de France 2024 Predictions & Betting tips

Read our free prediction on the winner of the 2024 Tour de France. Our experts will be producing well-researched forecasts on all of the stages in this year's Tour. Lots of information therefore for your cycling sports betting!

Tour de France 2024 presentation and prediction

Tour de France Prediction

Do you like betting on cycling? Is cycling your passion? Then get ready to make your predictions for the Tour de France 2024! From June 29 to July 21, the best cyclists in the world will be criss-crossing France in their quest for the yellow jersey.

After last year's triumph of Dane Jonas Vingegaard, contenders such as Pogacar, Roglic and Evenepoel will be battling it out to the very end in this 110th edition of the great race.

So who is the favourite for the Tour de France 2024? How can the stages of the Tour be predicted? What is the route? Who can win today's stage? We tell you everything on our page 100% dedicated to Tour de France predictions.

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Winner prediction: who will win the Tour de France 2024?

Winner prediction Tour de France 2024

Due to a severe crash during the race in the Itazulia Basque Country, many promising riders who are potentinal winners of Tour de France 2024 have suffered serious injuries. The accident leads to uncertainty of their participation in this year's race in France. Tadej Pogacar, who was not one of the victims at the crash, is the only dominanting favourite left. Despite of their injuries, Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel, and Jonas Vingegaard also have a good chance of taking part in the 2024 TDF (albeit with a reduced level of preparation). This year, we should once again see a battle between Vingegaard, the two-time title holder, and Pogacar, who has also won the Tour de France twice. They are the two big favourites for this Tour de France 2024, but Pogacar has the edge in terms of form.

All considered, we believe Tadej Pogacar, winner of the Tour in 2020 and 2021, is the one to bet on to win the Tour de France 2024 prediction. The Slovenian has solid resources to call on with his UAE Team Emirates. Accompanied by some great talents (Adam Yates, Juan Ayuso, Joao Almeida, etc.), the young prodigy should once again thrill spectators on the roads of the Tour. Winner of the Tour of Catalonia earlier in the year, Pogacar is a favourite for your bets. Our Tour de France 2024 prediction: Tadej Pogacar wins!

Tour de France prediction - The odds on the favourites for the Tour de France 2024

  • Tadej Pogacar - 1.57
  • Jonas Vingegaard - 3.00
  • Primoz Roglic - 9.00
  • Remco Evenepoel - 15.00
  • Adam Yates - 26.00
  • Juan Ayuso - 34.00
  • Carlos Rodríguez - 34.00
  • Joao Almeida - 34.00
  • Matteo Jorgenson - 41.00
  • Simon Yates - 51.00

Odds taken from bet365. Take advantage of the nice bonus offered by these bookmakers in July 2024 to bet on the Tour de France.

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Tour de France 2024 route: the detailed route

Tour de France 2024 route

The Tour de France 2024 offers an ideal route for sports betting. Crossing France, after starting in Italy, the Grande Boucle offers 21 stages, each more interesting than the last. A little special feature this year: because of the Olympic Games taking place in Paris during the same period, the finishing line of the Tour de France 2024 will not be on the Champs-Élysées as it is every year, but in Nice.

The 2024 TDF will feature a total of 8 flat stages, 4 hilly stages, 7 mountain stages (including 4 with a finish at altitude), 2 individual time trial stages and 2 rest days. Enough to please every cycling fan, and to give all riders a chance to shine on their bikes.

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Beginner punters - How does the Tour de France de Cyclisme work?

Tour de France Cycling Format

The Tour de France is a cycling race held every summer in France. Divided into 21 stages, it sees the world's best riders attempt to win one or more stages, wear the leader's yellow jersey, try to win the points and the Tour de France General Classification (GC).

For three weeks, the eyes of the world will be on the most beautiful landscapes in France: mountains, plains, massifs, towns... a route that will call on a whole range of skills in the various competitors. At the end of the 21 stages of the race, the rider who finishes with the best overall time is declared the winner of the Tour de France de Cyclisme. 

Tour de France classification: how are they calculated?

There are several classification in the Tour de France, but the only one of considerable importance is the individual classification. This is the one that determines the race's yellow jersey and the overall winner. 

This individual classification is determined by the accumulation of times achieved by each rider during the various stages of the race. At the end of the race, the rider who finishes the Tour in the shortest time is declared the winner of the Tour de France.

In addition to this individual classification, there is also a points classification that awards the green jersey, also known as the sprinter's jersey. It rewards the rider who finishes the stages in first place the most times.

There is also the best climber classification, with its famous polka-dot jersey, which rewards the best rider on the various climbs. On the various passes, points are awarded to the first riders to reach the summit, depending on the category of the climb and the order in which they pass (points are awarded to the eighth rider to reach the summit if the pass is outside the category).

Finally, a white jersey also exists in the Tour de France and rewards the rider aged 25 or under best placed in the general classification, as does a red bib which rewards the rider judged to have fought hardest in the previous stage. A team classification is also drawn up, combining the times of all the riders in a team.

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How can I make reliable Tour de France predictions?

Tour de France prediction tips - Cycling

To predict the Tour de France in the manner of an expert, you need to apply good practice throughout the race. Here are the factors on which our cycling specialists base their predictions during each stage of the Grande Boucle: 

  • Take into account the nature of the stage
  • Consider the weather conditions
  • The location of the stage
  • Look at the different rankings
  • Take into account the riders' last stage

By taking an interest in these 5 parameters of a Tour de France stage, your analysis will be all the better and so will your chances of winning your bet. See the following paragraphs for even more explanations.

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Take into account the nature of the stage

The first thing you need to do to make a good prediction on a stage of the Tour de France is... to know what that stage is. Don't be fooled, and don't bet on the best rider on paper: stars like Pogacar are not going to win every stage of the Tour!

You absolutely must know whether the day's stage is mountainous, flat, hilly or even an individual time trial. This will give you an indication of which riders are most likely to shine (a sprinter won't be able to do much on a mountain stage, whereas he'll be at an advantage on the flat).

Take the weather conditions into account

As well as knowing the nature of the day's stage, you need to take an interest in the forecast weather conditions. Is it going to rain? Are there likely to be high temperatures? What is the air quality like if the riders have to pass through town? These are just some of the questions that need to be answered to give you the best chance of success.

If, for example, a thunderstorm is forecast, or even strong gusts of wind, be wary, because accidents can happen, as can a certain amount of caution on the part of the riders announced as favourites. This weather has already played tricks on the various cyclists in the Grande Boucle. And to punters too.

Take into account the location of the stage

The third criterion to analyse in order to make an accurate stage prediction is the location of the day's race. Here, it's mainly historical data that you need to look for. Take an interest not only in the French riders (are they from the region, in which case you can be sure of an attack), but also in their performances in the locality.

A rider who has won a similar stage in a previous Tour de France, for example, and in the same département, will be one to watch with the utmost attention. This stat is really something to take into account on a daily basis.

Take into account the different rankings

Our fourth piece of advice is to take into account the different rankings in the Tour de France. As well as the individual general classification, which remains the most important, take an interest in the points classification, the best climber classification, the best young rider classification and the team classification. They will systematically give you an indication of what is at stake for each rider, and therefore of their motivation / need to perform on the day's stage.

For example, if a rider is in the race for the polka-dot jersey (best climber), expect him to be in the battle if the day's stage consists of several passes. In the same spirit, keep a close eye on the sprinters who are well placed in the points classification if the day's stage is more flat. They will all be more determined to succeed. 

Don't forget that on certain stages, the favourites for overall winner in the Tour de France will be looking above all not to lose time on their main rivals. The cyclists to follow will therefore be those who have the greatest interest in placing themselves on the day's route.

Take into account the riders' final stage

Finally, you should also take into account the very last stage completed by the riders you want to bet on. Did they have to work harder than expected? Or were they content to maintain their lead in the standings without drawing too heavily on their physical reserves? In short: are they fresh or physically exhausted?

By finding an initial answer to this question, you'll always have a clearer idea of the capabilities of the riders you're interested in. Never forget this before predicting a stage of the Tour 2024.

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Things to avoid when making your Tour de France predictions

To avoid jeopardising your chances of making a successful prediction on the Tour de France 2024, there are a few pitfalls to avoid when betting. Here's what our cycling experts tell you not to do when making your Tour de France prediction: 

  • Not studying the stage
  • Betting solely on a rider's prestige
  • Failing to take into account  the composition of the cycling teams
  • Not taking an interest in what is at stake in the stage
  • Betting only on the small odds offered by bookmakers
  • Taking advantage of boosted odds without any analysis

By avoiding these 6 pitfalls and following the 5 tips given above, you should be able to maximise your chances of success when betting on the Tour de France 2024. Not to be underestimated!

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In short: how do you predict the Tour de France?

To sum up, it's essential to know every stage in detail before predicting a day of the Tour de France. While there's a certain logic to determining the overall winner (full line-up, maximum support for team riders, experience of the race, etc.), predicting the winner of a day's stage remains difficult every year in the Grande Boucle.

That's why you shouldn't hesitate for a moment to follow the daily predictions of our cycling specialists. For each stage, they give you their feelings and opinions on the potential winner of the day. It's now up to you to make the most of your sports bets with the various online bookmakers. And if you like sport in general, take a look at our sports predictions for all sports.

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