La Vuelta - Stage 20 Predictions & Betting tips - International

Prediction published on 11/09/2026, 10:42 by Matthew Newman | Modified on 13/09/2026 at 18:05

The penultimate stage of La Vuelta will see the peloton take on the toughest day of the race with the only hors catégorie climb in the entire 21 stages, the Collado del Alguacil. It is a brutal mountain which means only the strongest can win, perfect for Richard Carapaz.

The leader’s jersey is still on the back of Enric Mas as he looks to win his first grand tour. The Movistar team have been strong around him to this point and will need to be more so than ever. Mas has finished runner-up three times in La Vuelta, can he claim his first?

Primoz Roglič didn’t take enough out of Mas on the individual time trial on stage 19 and is now going to have to hope there is enough in his legs at the age of 36 to attack. Four times a winner of this race, winning 15 stages in the process, he will be desperate to add one more.

Although he is more of a grinder when it comes to climbing the big hills, Felix Gall is an exceptionally talented rider. Runner-up in the Giro earlier on this season, he has three further top 10 finishes in a Grand Tour and is set to add a fourth here.

Arguably the most explosive of the top four hunting for the podium spots is Richard Carapaz. He went stage hunting late in the Tour de France, picking up a pair of stages and finishing third on another. This is his terrain, expect him to be at the forefront of any attacks.

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La Vuelta - Stage 20 - International prediction key points

Stage 20 is 186.8km in length, longer than most stages that contain almost 5,000 metres of vertical climbing.
The Collado del Alguacil is the final climb of the day and the toughest of the entire race. It is almost 19km long and averages a gradient of 6.5% but there are ramps of 20% in there which will test every rider.
Richard Carapaz arrived at this race off the back of two Tour de France stage wins, including up the famous Alpe d'Huez.
He won three stages in this race in 2022 when he claimed the King of the Mountains title.

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Our La Vuelta - Stage 20 - International prediction

This is a brutal second to last stage of La Vuelta and this is where the race will be won or lost. Our La Vuelta Stage 20 prediction is Richard Carapaz wins. Realistically there are only two potential winners of the race with 1:37 splitting Enric Mas and Primoz Roglic. That pair will be very cagey and concentrating on what the other one is doing up the final climb. Felix Gall will look to take advantage of that but he lacks the explosivity that Richard Carapaz offers and the Ecuadorian can pick his moment to attack and go up the road.

Prediction :

Richard Carapaz wins

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.