France vs Belgium Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
The floodlights will be beaming down on Stade de France on Monday night when France take on Belgium in Group A1 of the UEFA Nations League. Les Bleus edged the Red Devils 1-0 in Brussels last week, and we’re going for another low-scoring outcome as our main prediction in this match.
Zinedine Zidane’s perfect start to life as France manager came to an end on Friday night when they were held to a 1-1 draw by Italy here in Saint-Denis. Despite that, Les Bleus are still unbeaten in this competition and sit atop the standings in this group with seven points from their three matches (W2 D1).
After losing to their upcoming opponent in Brussels a week ago, Mark van Bommel’s side bounced back to winning ways with an impressive victory over Turkey on Friday. The Red Devils can end this international break leading Group A1 with a win here, but they have not beaten France in any competition in over a decade. Let’s get into the key stats!
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France v Belgium Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.51 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
|
|
1.58 | 4.56 | 5.61 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.46 | 5.45 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.56 | 5.6 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.46 | 5.45 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between France and Belgium?
Our prediction for the France vs Belgium match is: under 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/10/2026 between France and Belgium in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 49.28% for a win of France against Belgium with odds of 1.58 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between France vs Belgium is 14.07% with odds of 4.75 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.65% chance ⭐ for a win of Belgium vs France with odds of 5.9 at Betsson.
France vs Belgium Form
France and Belgium's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 |
|
2
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 |
France and Belgium Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
18 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
9 Jul 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
18 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
9 Jul 2026 - World Cup
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
22 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
29 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
France vs Belgium Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
7 Oct 2021 - UEFA Nations League
10 Jul 2018 - World Cup
France - Belgium: Form Analysis
France have not been at their absolute best in this competition, but they are still unbeaten, having defeated Turkey and Belgium 1-0 each before their 1-1 draw against Italy here on Friday night.
Les Bleus dominated proceedings against Gli Azzurri but were unable to find a winning goal. They recorded 65% possession and 49 touches in the opposition box but only finished with 1.26 xG.
This week’s hosts have now won 11 of their last 15 matches in all competitions (D1 L3) and six of their last 10 home games (D2 L2) dating back to the start of the 2024-25 Nations League campaign.
France have kept clean sheets in four of their last six matches against Belgium!
Meanwhile, Belgium kicked off their UNL campaign with a 2-0 victory over Italy before losing to France 1-0. They rebounded from that defeat impressively, though, beating Turkey 3-0 on Friday.
The Red Devils had 53% possession and managed 1.58 xG against the Crescent Stars in the last match. They had 28 touches in the opposition box and 17 shots at goal, 10 of which were on target.
Belgium have now won nine of their last 15 matches in all competitions (D4 L2) and are unbeaten in their last eight away games. However, they last beat their upcoming opponents in a friendly back in 2015.
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France vs Belgium last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
J. Butez
G. Restes
DefenderM. Lacroix
J. Kounde
L. Yoro
MidfielderA. Diouf
M. Akliouche
M. Kone
E. Camavinga
ForwardE. Lepaul
B. Barcola
M. Vandevoordt
M. Penders
DefenderA. Theate
K. De Winter
Z. Debast
J. Seys
MidfielderR. Lavia
N. Raskin
ForwardM. Fofana
L. Trossard
R. Lukaku
L. Openda
France & Belgium Squad Analysis
Dayot Upamecano was sent off for two bookable offences in the last match and will have to serve his suspension here. Maxence Lacroix is the most likely to step into central defence in his absence.
Kylian Mbappe has now returned to Real Madrid and is undergoing treatment for his knee injury. Desire Doue started on the left flank in the last match, but Zidane may give Bradley Barcola the nod this week.
Michael Olise has returned for us in every match in this competition, notching up an assist in the opener and goals in the last two games, including netting the winner against Belgium in Brussels last week.
Olise has 14 direct goal contributions in 10 games for club and country this season!
Kevin De Bruyne bagged a brace and was the standout performer for Belgium against Turkey, but the Napoli midfielder is suspended for this match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Youri Tielemans will also have to sit this one out due to suspension, which leaves van Bommel with a couple of big selection calls to make in the centre of the park. Romeo Lavia and Leandro Trossard are among those who could fill in.
There is also a possibility that Charles De Ketelaere could slot into midfield, with Romelu Lukaku brought in to lead the line from the first whistle.
Most goals and assists
France
Belgium
M. Olise
(2 Goals)
K. De Bruyne
(2 Goals)
R. Cherki
(2 Assists)
C. De Ketelaere
(2 Assists)
France and Belgium Stats in UEFA Nations League
France - Belgium Key Points
- Each of France’s three matches in this competition ended with under 3.5 goals.
- France have kept five clean sheets in their last nine home matches.
- France and Belgium recorded 1.22 and 0.69 xG in their last encounter, respectively.
- Each of Belgium’s three matches in this competition ended with under 3.5 goals.
- Belgium have kept clean sheets in their last two away matches.
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Our France vs Belgium Prediction
France are unbeaten in this competition and are firm favourites to top the group, but they have not been at their best in attack in the absence of Kylian Mbappé, scoring just three goals in their three matches.
While Belgium have scored five times in the UNL, they failed to find the back of the net on their home patch against France and managed just 0.69 xG last week. Fewer than four goals were scored in each of the last four games between these sides, and we feel that will be the case in this one as well. Our France vs Belgium prediction is under 3.5 goals.
France vs Belgium Alternative Predictions
Michael Olise to score or assist
France wins
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France vs Belgium - FAQs
The UEFA Nations League match between France and Belgium will be broadcast live on la chaine L'Équipe (France) and VTM Go (Belgium). UK viewers can tune in to Prime Video UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our UEFA Nations League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
